Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
You know, the real problem with early voting is death.
A voter who votes, and dies before election day . . . that’s not a vote that should count. But you would never know all the votes he cast downballot. He might not remember them even if he was alive.
A significant issue with early voting — though it would be made legitimate by redefining Election Day to have some number of hours far in excess of 24 that start 2 weeks prior or whatever.
OK BACK UP
assuming last update was “2:08”
has to do average the last hour but DEMS continue crushing it on mail ins compared to the last couple of days eating into the REPS +net hour update lead
and have +6621 lead so far for mail ins
Reps up 26,208 in IPEV
+19,587 net
last 3 updates (all the same because they are averages over the past hour)
+1405 -556 = +849
+1405 -556 = +849
+1405 -556 = =849
because of strong D mail ins today
+40K is now out of reach
and +35 is slipping if their strong mail in continue
+33 +/- 2 looking most likely
Does your map show what percentage of Ds and Rs have voted?
A statewide total?
Also we can use JoeIsDone to know 2020 turnout by party and not have to wait for Daniel Smith to publish that number 1 year from now.
Yeah, kid pulled the plug. It’s running again. It now has Polk numbers too.
Gallup (Oct. 16-27)
Republican job approval of Trump (95%) is now at the highest level of his presidency. Was at 85% in May. Not likely to be too many R to D crossovers.
Yeah, kid pulled the plug. It’s running again. It now has Polk numbers too.
Ok excellent news
but ouch.. DEMS had a +835 mail in gain on the 2:28 update just now
Haha! Oh the humanity. Again I just want to say what you have done with this map is nothing short of amazing.
There’s registration buttons at the bottom. Just corrected some labels in the Advanced tab though.
Some twit posting. Have no details.
“Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.”
last Sat was +26K.
This Thursday and Friday both out performed last Thursday and Friday, by a combined 25%.
If today were to out perform last Sat by 25%, today would be +32.8K.
BPR
An election night event at Trump International Hotel has reportedly been called off and the president will remain at the White House, a source familiar with the plans told The New York Times. Trump himself addressed the issue while speaking with reporters on Friday. Apparently, restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic may have been a factor in ruling out the venue in Washington D.C. where gatherings are limited to 50 people.
This Thursday and Friday both out performed last Thursday and Friday, by a combined 25%.
If today were to out perform last Sat by 25%, today would be +32.8K.
I underestimated did D mail ins
I was going to go +33Kish based on what you just pointed out but went with +36 thinking More Rs this year will voting this weekend rather then election day compared to last year
When I click the “vs active voter registrations” where do I see the statewide total?
Ds are probably in low 60s right now for total turnout statewide.
Am I missing it somewhere?
“Ravi, do you want to volunteer to come up with that number?”
If you are poll watching Tuesday, you may not have time.
Ideally we’d come up with a number Tuesday morning after official DOE 8:30am report.
Or we can just note that JoeIsDone will be missing those numbers.
5,303,254 reg Ds
3,358,884 voted
So current turnout is 63.3%
5,169,102 reg Rs
3,265,459 voted
Current turnout is 63.1%
Pretty close right now between Rs and Ds.
Actually, I’m trying to work with a statistician to come up with that number. If he doesn’t come through, I’ll use what you guys come up with.
I’ll try a guesstimate Monday night
Ah crap... no, it doesn’t show the total average.
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