Can We Trust Pennsylvania’s Polls? They show Joe Biden clinching crucial counties. So why does it feel so different on the ground here?

nytimes.com ^

[Carriage Hill]

They’re counting the harvested and fraudulent ballots, stored in warehouses, box trucks and storage garages, all over the state. They’ve been working on it for months.

[tet68]

a group of women outside the Trump Store.

She would have asked others out side Biden stores...
but there aren’t any.

[carton253]

I love these posts. I’m so glad for them

[sanjuanbob]

I’m praying for accuracy in your numbers..Wow!

[Robert357]

I think that the Slimes are trying to cover themselves for the Trump win and not look like the losers they know they are.

I read carefully an article in the Economist, which looked at about a dozen polls and did some averaging and scenario analysis by Electoral College votes. They concluded that Trump had a 1 in 19 chance of winning the Electoral College and that Biden was a “sure thing.”

Then I looked closely at how the polls were taken. Some were registered voters. Some were based on likely voters. This election will have a lot more voters than past “likely voters.” Also most places allow walk-up same day registration.

But even more interesting was how the information was obtained for the polling. Just a few were based on telephone interviews and most were based on “on-line” interviews. This is where I think that the polling is getting it all wrong.

In data sampling, especially among people, you have to avoid “self-selection” bias. That is let's say a Trump voter knows they are going to vote for Trump, but feels any information they give a pollster would either expose them to propaganda or aid the enemy? They will not participate either on-line or by telephone. Biden supporters tend to be more like sheep and do what is asked of them blindly. I think most of the polling is under estimating the number of Trump supporters by a lot. Previously some have talked about the “shy Trump supporter” as an issue in the 2016 election campaign “surprising” win by Trump.

[DarthVader]

These are given to me. These do not have the Bobulisnski Effect yet. It will show up and I bet Trump widens. Panic is in the swamp.

[Signalman]

Here’s a hint NY Slimes:

The polls you are relying on, are Bull$hitte.

[DarthVader]

Left is trying to crash stock market with false Covid 19 . It’s down over 900.

[HamiltonJay]

Trump is taking PA. Polls saying otherwise are a joke.

I have lived here since 1986 and while I was certain he had it last time, I have never seen anything like what I am seeing this cycle...

I don’t believe a single poll that says Trump is losing PA. Let alone one claiming he’s losing by 5 or 12 points or whatever its ludicrous

[Robert357]

You made me spill my coffee! I may need a new keyboard.

“......Oregon Trump 47%, Biden 45%.........”

Antifa must have made a huge impression on the voters of that state. I mean, I can't remember when Oregon went “Democrat.”

[Pravious]

What about his flirtation with white supremacists?

—

These people should be sued for libel for that comment.
Unless continually denouncing something is considered “flirting” with it.

[gogeo]

No, current polling is psyops. Period.

[Zathras]

Its still hard to believe Oregon but its possible the riots have woken up your average Democrat.

[DarthVader]

The Antifa effect is real!! The Bobulinski effect is next!!

[ScottinVA]

Damn, I hope your polling numbers are right.

[latina4dubya]

i am starting to feel uneasy again... ugh... just because the Covid-19-scared liberals don’t want to risk going to a Biden event does not mean they are not going to vote for him... i am starting to think that these big Trump rallies are going to mean nothing in the end because it’s the votes that matter... and polls are not starting to save face like i thought they would... we are less than a week away, and most of the polls still show Biden ahead... i want so badly to be wrong... but i wanted to be wrong in 2008 (and so many Freepers were gung-ho positive because of the Sarah Palin turnout at her rallies) and 2012 too, and we lost... i don’t remember being this frustrated in 2016... i hate this...

[conservativepoet]

What if the country is about to move significantly right? A new alignment toward toward real conservatism.

[DarthVader]

They are from a good pollster who is not engaged in political shenanigans. Free of Deep State BS.

[WildHighlander57]

Prayers UP, for PDJT !!!

DarthVader wrote:

“They are panicking over what Tucker Carlson will do to these numbers:

Here is a sample of the latest data from the states that in the news and a few surprises. POTUS is working the down ticket with his rallies and is spotlighting GOP candidates.

Latest Poll Numbers 10-26-20 TRENDING RED !

National Trump 51.5%, Biden 43.6%.

5000 likely voters =/- 1% MOE

Oregon US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Jeff Merkley 47%, Republican Challenger Joe Rae Perkins 47%.

Arizona US Senate Race. Republican Incumbent Martha McSally 50%, Democrat Challenger Mark Kelly 44%.

Michigan US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Gary Peters 47%, Republican Challenger John James 49%.

Minnesota US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Tina Smith 47%, Republican Challenger Jason Lewis 50%.

Florida Trump 52%, Biden 43%.
New Jersey Trump 46%, Biden 47%.
Connecticut Trump 46%, Biden 50%.
Oregon Trump 47%, Biden 45%.
New Hampshire Trump 50%, Biden 45%.
Maine Trump 50%, Biden 46%.
Georgia Trump 53%, Biden 42%.
Virginia Trump 48%, Biden 46%.
North Carolina Trump 54%, Biden 41%.
Iowa Trump 55%, Biden 40%.
Michigan Trump 51%, Biden 45%.
New Mexico Trump 45%, Biden 43%.
Pennsylvania Trump 50%, Biden 45%
Wisconsin Trump 50%, Biden 45%.”

[Olog-hai]

Granted … women were voluntarily at the Trump Store, but there seemed to be nothing about the past four years that gave them pause. Not Charlottesville. Not the Bob Woodward tapes. Not the pathetic pandemic response and the ruinous economy. Not the president’s suggestions that he might not accept the results of the election …

No, Shawn McCreesh formerly of Bensalem PA where this particular Trump Store is, lies do not give Trump voters pause.

Never mind your disgusting misogyny, which is akin to Jim Crow Joe’s “you ain’t black” outburst.