Florida Early Vote update, 10/19/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/19/2020 | self

[LS]

Earlier I said 200,000.

I’m gonna be low. Way low.

[Guenevere]

They started today.....the 19th

[Ravi]

Not sure how Travis is doing but Tarrant just crossed 20% turnout.
>

[Ravi]

That’s a fun county to track as will be many more soon. Check Santa Rosa.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Travis is occupied territory. I’m behind enemy lines. Lower turnout the better. Haha.

Tarrant is more 50/50 I think.

[Rumierules]

Martin county Republicans outpacing Democrats 2 to 1.

[pghbjugop]

FWIW, Wifey works for county here in FL. Also an EV place. She said the county workers all came to work with their Trump flags on their trucks today which are parked in the EV county parking lot while they are off working in their county vehicles

[floridalife68]

LOL!! I live in BLUE/PURPLE COUNTY there and you guys make me chuckle!! Trump will win by 4 to 4.5!! I have worked this ground game since before Apr...Many people are missing MIAMI DADE..you are underestimating the Hispanic Vote for Trump and the VBM in PALM and BROWARD will end up being a down for Dems because they overplayed COVID!! I worked those precincts for years!! The A1A corridor is older DEMS pertrified to vote in person!! They are at “AS GOOD AS ITS GETS” They will not be out IPEV or ELECTION DAY!!

The Big Story will be the Hispanic Push for Trump from people in MIAMI DADE! We registered a NET of over 106K over the Dems from Aug 2020 of this year!!

We know the ground..most of you do not! The SO CALLED MARKETS base on BOGUS POLLS not the people on the GROUND!!

The Markets are clueless nor do they do door to door nor do they know precincts!! The DEMS shut down IN PERSON because COVID which predominates many of those DEM PRECINCTS!!

Baris says Trump plus 3...I would say from working the ground it is Trump plus 4 or more! The GOP Is jazzed....I was over in LEE for TRUMP and back in Miami!! The Markets make me laugh!! If you want to see FL check GALLUP!! COVID worked against DEMS they were not active because 90 percent like Gallup says fear Covid!!

The GOP has been all over the state before, during and now with COVID!!

[Political Junkie Too]

My question is this:

Is Florida a state that requires people who requested mail-in ballots but choose to vote in-person must bring the mail-in ballot with them to the polling place?

If so, since almost 50% of Democrats requested mail-in ballots and 50% of those are still outstanding, it's likely that a lot of those ballots won't get voted.

Republicans have more Election Day voters to turn out.

-PJ

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Is Florida a state that requires people who requested mail-in ballots but choose to vote in-person must bring the mail-in ballot with them to the polling place?”

I don’t think so.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/vote-by-mail/

“Instructions are included with the vote-by-mail ballot. If the voter decides to go to the polls to vote, the voter should bring the vote-by-mail ballot (marked or not). The vote-by-mail ballot will be canceled and the voter can vote a regular ballot at the polls. If the voter comes to the polls without the vote-by-mail ballot, the voter can vote a regular ballot if the supervisor of elections’ office can confirm that it has not received the voter’s vote-by-mail ballot. If it is confirmed that the supervisor of elections office has already received the voted vote-by-mail ballot or it cannot be determined, the voter cannot vote a regular ballot at the polls. However, if a voter believes that he or she has not already voted, he or she shall be allowed to vote a provisional ballot.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

“The Big Story will be the Hispanic Push for Trump from people in MIAMI DADE!”

Glad to hear some “real” reports from Florida!

I posted in recent days that Rubio lost Miami by 100k while Trump lost Miami by 300k.

There are ALOT of votes in Miami for Trump to pickup.

I made the bold prediction that Trump gets a higher percentage of the vote in Miami than Palm.

In 2016, Trump got something like 33-34% of Miami and 40% of Palm.

[southpaw1]

Collier Cty IPEV

Currently 58.3% R (as of 2pm)

2016: 52.3% R
2018: 55.4% R

[southpaw1]

Other notables

IPEV R share R share R share
2016 2018 10/19/20

Duval 39.20% 38.10% 32.90%
Volusia 37.30% 39.70% 44.10%
Pasco 43.90% 47.10% 49.60%
Broward 20.30% 20.90% 21.70%
Plm Bch 27.80% 29.60% 34%
Lee 45.80% 49.20% 51%
Brevard 44.40% 47.30% 49%
Collier 52.30% 55.40% 58.20%
Marion 46.50% 50.40% 54.80%
Clay 62% 62.80% 62.40%
St John 58% 58.60% 56.10%
Hilsbrg 34% 34.80% 35.50%
S Lucie 32.20% 34.20% 36.60%

[Professional]

Are you saying that you think Trump wins by 4% in Florida this year? What was the margin in 16? Thanks for your enthusiasm and hard work.

[Ravi]

Good work.

[Ravi]

Voter Score Data for FL.

You all might have seen this already.

Per TargetSmart (not their modeling portion):
2016 1st time voters 10.7%
2020 1st time voters 4.6%

2016 Infrequent voters 25.0%
2020 Infrequent voters 20.1%

If you trust the voter score data from TargetSmart (this seems readily available), there is a definite lack of new or infrequent voters thus far. I assume infrequent voters are 1/4 or 2/4 voters.

This is with 2.5 million votes vs. 630,000 votes cast at this point in 2016.

I take TargetSmart's modeled score with a grain of salt but the voter score and demographics should be spot on. Correct.

[Ken H]

2016 =>

Trump 4,617,886; 49.02%

Clinton 4,504,975; 47.82%

[SpeedyInTexas]

As of right now, D increased VBM lead by only 3k today.

Usual stipulations, no data for Miami/Sarasota.

Rs with 2000 IPEV lead.

[Rumierules]

A liberal beat you to it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWZdJS4*I5HkmVcWPuFu-OTYVUUzFg#

But I bet yours will be better!

[byecomey]

Cool! I’ll one-up that guy!