Posted on 08/26/2020 1:08:17 PM PDT by 11th_VA
I don’t expect that he will get that high a percentage of the black vote either - but.Democrats can’t win if Trump pulls much above 10% of the black vote, and the Democrat Party would be in an existential crisis if he got 20% of the black vote.
The Principle of Pursuit suggests that Republicans should tell the black voters that if they elect enough black Republican congressmen to give the Republicans the majority, Tim Scott will resign from the Senate and be selected Speaker of the House (nothing in the Constitution says that the Speaker has to be a Member of the House).
Were that to happen, the Democrats would lose their safe seats and have their backs against the wall for real.
“4% of black females voted for Trump in 2016. ... I would be stunned if Trump got more than 5-6% approval from black females.”
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True, Trump only got 4% from black females according to the exit poll, but two things to keep in mind are that (i) the “shy Tory” phenomenon that makes some people apprehensive of revealing to pollsters that they support non-socially-acceptable candidates is stronger in exit polls than in pre-election polls, and probably is strongest among black women, so Trump may have gotten more than 4% if the black female vote, and (ii) conservative Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis got around 15% of the black female vote (IIRC) according to the 2018 exit poll, which was decisive in his very narrow victory over black liberal Democrat Andrew Gillum, on the strength of his outreach campaign that emphasized his support for school choice. If you’ve watched the first two days of the Republican National Convention, you must have noticed that many speakers have emphasized President Trump’s pledge to support and expand school choice. So I’ll take the “over” if the over/under on Trump’s share of the black female vote is 5%.
That being said, I’ve never trusted Zogby Interactive “polls” and I’m not going to start now. No way that Trump is at 35%+ support among black voters, if by “support” they mean willingness to consider voting for him. Trump can win this election, but he needs to run like he’s down 5% (which indeed may be the case) and not depend on the possibility of getting 35% of the black vote. If that number ends up being close to correct, then Trump will win going away (and the GOP will hold the Senate and probably get back the House), and we can have a big laugh about how we were worried back in August about what would happen in November. But I’m not taking anything for granted.
“Pollsters have been somewhat at a loss to explain the rise of Trump’s approval ratings, considering that there has been little positive news to help his standings other than the peace deal he helped negotiate between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.”
Massive negatives for the Dems are driving people away ... the DELIBERATELY unchecked anarchists in Dem-controlled cities is just the latest negative ... Dementia Joe himself is the biggest negative of them all as he stumbles and bumbles and babbles from his basement with no intention of leaving it during the campaign ... and then of course the insane “unity platform”, which includes:
1. Abolish immigration detention. No more detention. You come in here illegally, no more detention.
2. Stop all deportation.
3. End prosecution of illegal border crossers.
4. Support the deadly sanctuary cities.
5. Incentivize illegal-alien child smuggling.
6. Expand asylum for all new illegal aliens.
7. Cancel all asylum cooperation agreements with Honduras, Guatemala, with El Salvador.
8. Taxpayer-funded lawyers will be given to all illegal aliens.
9. Abolish immigration enforcement against illegal workers.
10. Restore Catch and Release policies for illegals.
11. Grant work permits for illegal aliens.
12. Provide taxpayer subsidies and welfare for illegal aliens and new immigrants.
13. Federal Student Aid and free community college for illegal aliens.
14. Sign new immigrants up for welfare immediately.
15. End requirement for immigrants’ self-sufficiency and maximize their welfare.
16. End all travel bans, including from jihadist regions.
17. Grant mass amnesty.
18. Vastly expand low-skilled immigration to the United States.
19. Increase refugee admissions by 700 percent.
20. Abolish law enforcement as we know it.
21. End cash bail.
22. Abolish completely the death penalty.
23. Appoint social justice prosecutors in order to free violent criminals.
24. End mandatory minimums.
25. Incentivize prison closure.
26. End solitary confinement.
27. Free federal housing for former inmates.
28. Rejoin Paris Climate Accord.
29. Mandate net-zero carbon emissions for homes, offices, and all new buildings by 2030.
30. Mandate zero carbon emissions from power plants by 2035.
31. Mandate net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
32. Mandate all 500,000 school buses and all 3 million government vehicles be changed to zero-emission vehicles within five years.
33. Install 500,000 taxpayer-funded charging stations nationwide.
34. End school choice.
35. End tax credit scholarships serving disadvantaged students in 26 states.
36. Oppose 14 million Americans with education savings accounts and get rid of school choice, having to do with school choice.
37. Eliminate school choice in Washington, D.C.
38. Abolish all charter schools.
39. Ban funding for charter schools in poor neighborhoods.
40. Abolish educational standards.
41. Abolish the suburbs with AFFH regulations.
42. They’re going to rip down the wall.
“I don’t believe his ratings are that high with blacks.”
for many weeks now, multiple different polls have consistently shown Trump approval among blacks between 36%-40% ...
I think even Latinos will break more for Trump as they see the Democrats going all out for Blacks, and largely ignoring them.
Where’s Biden’s Bounce?
Impressive.........
“And “intriguingly,” said Zogby, 23% of Democrats approve of Trump.”
If we can just get the Republicans on board we are in business.
There was no blow out last time.
Agreed. I saw a so-called Republican, Fiorina, on Cavuto telling how great Biden is.
Agreed. I saw a so-called Republican, Fiorina, on Cavuto telling how great Biden is.
Lol! So sad, so true, so funny. I laugh to keep from crying.
“ The longer the riots are allowed to continue by DemocRats, the better Trump looks to the fence sitting independents or the middle of the road DemocRats.”
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Agree. The only potential gotcha hanging out is the possibility of vigilanteism starting up. If whites start shooting up the Antifa and BLM rioters, and there are white militias just itching to do it, it will turn moderates and such against trump.
“...This is why Don Lemon wants the riots to end....”
Yep. He sees where the blame is going and ain’t happy.
The “black lives matter” propaganda has got to stick in the craw of Hispanics—and it should stick in the craw of everyone else as well.
“....Where’s Biden’s Bounce?...”
Well, most likely off the basement walls.
Once Slow Joe is out there in the wild all bets are off.
—
For sure. WWJD? What Will Joe Do?
If his approval among blacks is half that high Biden has no chance.
FReepers forget we all tell Pollsters we are Democrats...
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