Posted on 06/15/2020 8:43:18 PM PDT by ZagFan
No, you are incorrect. This is not Rasmussen Reports, but Scott’s new firm Scott Rasmussen Polls. It’s confusing, but it’s not Rasmussen Reports.
And then we have this: Trump will win in landslide. https://theblacksphere.net/2020/06/new-signs-of-a-trump-election-landslide/
Go figure!
I never new that Scott Rasmussen’t father, with Scott involved, launched ESPN.
Worrisome however to see Mark McKinnon praising Scott’s book.
And really was he ever other than a GOPe pollster?
Solomon has always struck me as intel/Deep State controlled opposition, parcelling out dribs of information on Hannity’s shows to somehow get Hannity’s audience to believe that the same reckoning the Magic Letter pushed would be coming.
Registered voters are notoriously more left-leaning than the actual voting electorate (and only about 2/3rds of them vote and many are illegals who were afraid not to register when getting their driving licenses). But a daily poll of 1200 of them is massively expensive. (Actually it looks like he polls 400 a day, then aggregates some answers from the last three days of polling for his “daily poll”.) Who is funding Solomon’s website to that tune?
Here’s his methodology: https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2020-06/2020-June%2011-13%20JTN%20Poll%20Sample%20%26%20Methodology.pdf
It is mostly an online poll.
What’s really striking from the tiny bit of crosstabs he releases is how far he has rural and suburban voters swinging from the actual election results in 2016:
Trump goes from almost 2-1 with rural voters to barely positive. And loses nearly 20% from suburban voters.
Scott Rasmussen at least appears to be Never Trumping in his current work.
Why only 12%? Why not 15% OR 20%? I mean they want to demoralize us right?
I think Trump should adopt Democrat positions and suck up the MSM. That will really help him. /sarc
It is fake as much as you have a brain.
Agreed. At this rate November is a long, long ways away, and any runaway poll for one candidate or the other is likely wrong. At least right now.
If it is half that he wins.
Wouldn’t worry.
Last week, when CNN had Trump down 14, I looked at June 2016 polls. Guess what? Trump was down 14.
I looked then at ALL polls from July 2015-election. 167. Trump only led in 30 total, never by more than 4. Cankles led by 14, 13, 12, 12, 11, 10 and so on.
I looked at FL, OH, and PA state polling. Same thing. Except OH, Cankles led in almost all. In OH, which Trump won by 8.9%, his larges poll lead was 4. In PA, which Cankles lost, her largest lead was 4 (polls off by 5). In FL, they were off by an average of about 3. In WI they were off by an AVERAGE of 6.
These are not errors. They are massive failures of polling and there is good evidence that they are even worse this time, including Ras.
*New survey says over 60% of Trump voters are afraid to tell someone—even a friend—they will vote for Trump. (NOTE: in 2016, only 2 pollsters had Trump winning MI and PA-—Trafalgar and People’s Pundit Daily. Trafalgar didn’t ask “Who will you vote for,” but asked, “Who do you think your NEIGHBOR will vote for?” Same bias today.
*Trump is over 82m Twit followers. Let’s say that 10% are bots, another 10% are foreigners or DemoKKKrats. That means he has 64 MILLION voters following him just on Twit.
*Rush has said since his return he has over 40 MILLION daily listeners. Assume 75% are not on Twit. That’s an ADDITIONAL 8 million voters.
In short, I have a hard time thinking that Trump not only wins the popular vote this time, but wins it by a lot, maybe 70m.
*Registration changes in FL, NC, PA, NM, and NH have trended strongly to Rs in the last 4 years. FL is nearly even; PA has seen Rs close the gap by 80,000 in a state Trump won. Trump lost NH by only 1500, Rs have added 7,000 net.
Bottom line: pollsters, even Ras either are flat-out lying or they have not changed their methods at all since 2016 when they blew it horribly. (They also missed Brazil, Brexit I, Israel, Brexit 2, and three of the senate races in 2018).
Nonsense, even Democrats aren’t buying it.
It is a meaningless poll, as are all polls this far away from the election.
That is why they are buying guns by the thousands.
“Bottom line: pollsters, even Ras either are flat-out lying or they have not changed their methods at all since 2016 when they blew it horribly.”
From what I recall, Zogby was pretty accurate in 2016, had Trump and Cankles about even in August 2016 when other pollsters had Cankles with a substantial lead. His latest poll has Trump and Biden tied. Maybe he’s not using the special sauce like the other pollsters, instead striving for accuracy.
Zogs is all over the map. He had it dead right in either 2000 or 2004, can’t remember, then took a dive.
A major, major factor is that it is clear both from Trafalgar in 2016 and the new survey the other day that Trump supporters are intimidated and fearful of expressing their support in public.
There is no way that doesn’t transfer into polling.
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