Dash for campaign cash: Biden and DNC rake in more than $80 million in May

Fox News ^ | June 15 2020 | Paul Steinhauser, Madeleine Rivera

[Political Junkie Too]

You don’t have the split electoral votes either

True.

I have it in my model but I turned it off for this preview. The preview was based on the 2016 results with a +/- 5% swing for Monte Carlo analysis. That's where the probabilities came from that determined the state-by-state leanings.

I don’t put much stock in these apocalyptic polls, most of which are registered voter polls and many of which are ridiculous implausible (narrow Trump lead in ARKANSAS? lol) .

I already added the most recent polling data from realclearpolitics.com, and they are so tilted to Biden that they're not worth reporting. This is what happened in 2016, which is why the MSM and Nate Silver got it so wrong.

But there is enough evidence to suggest AZ should in tilt. Georgia lean, and NC and IA as well. And I’d at least tilt MI in Biden’s direction at this point.

That's also why I chose to look at the sensitivities using only the 2016 actuals at this point. Instead using polls, I could just use Freeper hunches for each state, but then the results would be hard to cite for credibility.

We'll see how this progresses as we get through the conventions.

-PJ

[AuH2ORepublican]

I generally agree with what you said, but that Selzer poll of Iowa scared the bejeezus out of me. Selzer is the best in the business when it comes to Iowa and Wisconsin polls, and if she says that Ernst is behind and Trump is basically tied among likely voters in Iowa, I can’t ignore that. The electoral landscape does not look good right now, and Trump needs to start moving it in his direction. He’s further behind right now than he was at this point in 2016, and voters don’t dislike Biden as much as they did Hillary. Hopefully the economy coming back will do a lot if the heavy lifting by itself, but I fear that it may not be enough. Trump needs to make a positive case for his reelection while simultaneously arguing against what Biden’s election would mean. And Senate and House candidates need to be more aggressive as well.

[Political Junkie Too]

Check out this article from Politico:

Trump has a point about the polls:

Excerpt:

But some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage.

That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.

And those issues haven’t been fixed.

-PJ

[LS]

No, as I recall in 2016 Seltzer was wrong a lot.