Posted on 04/14/2020 8:50:16 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
Four sailors in the hospital out of almost 5,000 must mean something less than panic. "Captain Kirk to sick bay."
You can only measure what you know about. A 4% fatality rate in the U.S. is only for known cases and for when an attending physician lists COVID-19 as a cause of death. As of today, 613,886 cases and 26,047 deaths equal 4%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For 2019-2020 seasonal flu the latest estimates are 80,000 cases and 1,100 deaths equals 0.013%.
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
no kidding. many people can’t seem to get past irrational, *worse case* thinking—their own remote possibility of dying from this disease. and the leftist politicians are glad to gaslight and pander to their fear. meanwhile, the nation’s economy is being destroyed. it’s like the new “pre-existing condition.”
Pretty much the same results as the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Then are your stats on flu deaths based upon estimates? And as said, death rates based upon only tested cases for Covid provide a specious picture of its legality, for the reasons given,]. Meanwhile there are far more than 1,100 deaths by the flu, for in your post above they are the wrong ones (you confused Covid deaths as of 4-26 with those of the flu.
As of March 26, more than a half million people around the world have contracted COVID-19, and nearly 24,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University's real-time tracker. In the US, nearly 80,000 cases have been confirmed, and more than 1,100 people have died.
This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths.
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.
Currently there are 134,375 deaths globally attributed to Covid.
The coronavirus death totals are from confirmed deaths where there is an attending physician signed death certificate. The seasonal flu numbers are CDC estimates.
As with all illness, someone has to diagnose it in order to treat it. So you are correct that “coronavirus cases” mean someone has diagnosed the illness, usually via testing. But COVID-19 is such that some people have died so suddenly that there wasn’t time for a test: Severe symptoms, on a respirator in ICU, and death.
“A New York Doctor Who Died After Fever and Cough Was Never Tested for Coronavirus, Highlighting the Limits of the Official Toll”
https://time.com/5818062/new-york-doctor-coronavirus-death-toll/
Meaning the fatality rate for Covid does not come close to representing reality since those tested make up a small minority of the infected, and are the most likely to have severe cases, while your 0.013% fatality rate for the flu is also way off, since it is based upon the wrong numbers.
Universal or random extensive testing for Covid - the more the better - is needed to determine its lethality, and surmising a death rate from estimates based upon such testing is to be preferred versus simply the relative few that are tested because they have symptoms.
We have the CDC morality rates for the flu per state for 2018 (13 states above 17 per 100,000 total population) and for Covid here (only one state above 17 per 100,000 people, as of April 9), and according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html
It is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. Meanwhile a study in Iceland reports that as of April 11, the country has “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world -” [and with fatality rate of about 0.4%] and that “about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic” (show no symptoms), which is “a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.”
Another report is that those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states).
Despite such headlines - which does not say he was never tested after death - it stands to reason that most deaths by Covid are tested as being such, either because being that sick mot people seek medical help, or are tested after death. Moreover, deaths that are missed can be made up for by adding deaths by Covid based upon presumed cases, such as NY did, adding 3700 presumed cases in one day, all presumed based on their symptoms and medical history. In NYC any patient who has had a positive coronavirus test and then later dies - whether at home or in a hospital - is being counted as a coronavirus death. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html) On average year round, about 158 people died every day in NYC from various causes in 2015. (https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2015/table31a.htm)
Let’s just agree that the mortality rate for persons tested for Coronavirus who are ill is about 4% and leave it at that.
Meanwhile, on the subject of this thread: “950 Sailors Now Have COVID-19; 2nd USS Theodore Roosevelt Sailor in Intensive Care”
Stating a fact is one thing, but it is another thing when it is done as part of an argument that is misleading.
The number of recorded coronavirus cases is a fact. So is the number of recorded deaths.
As of five minutes ago those numbers were 667,572 reported cases and 33,903 recorded deaths in the U.S. That yields a mortality rate of 5.07% JUST AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE TESTED POSITIVE.
The overall fatality rate is much lower because many people who have the virus show mild or no symptoms and aren’t being tested.
In Michigan 25,635 people have tested positive and the case fatality rate stands at 6.3 percent, the highest level in the country. New York has recorded 10,056 deaths out of 195,031 cases, a fatality rate of 5.1 percent. And in Washington, where an early outbreak claimed dozens of lives at a nursing home, the case fatality rate stands at 5 percent.
And we have facts about how many drivers tested as drunk when tested, but which figure is wrong to use in stating how many drunk drivers there are.
The overall fatality rate is much lower because many people who have the virus show mild or no symptoms and aren’t being tested.
Thank you, that is what my contention was about.
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