Posted on 03/24/2020 7:03:16 PM PDT by gas_dr
Quick analysis tonight, but the data support some interesting forecasts. I am sure I will be deemed a flu bro and excoriated but I think there is good cause for optimism.
I saw US numbers took a big jump today, but I haven’t looked closely at the details.
Are we still pre-peak do you think?
Have the NYC serious cases overwhelmed the local Hospital Capacity
How much headroom do they have?
I love your posts and look forward to them!
I believe the US has seen peak
NYC May be an exception
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-updating-charts-us-world-compare
I predicted peak would be march 22 - 24, all the data points to nonexponential growth so the inflection point has been reached or curve has flattened. We have been cautioned that we are doing a lot of testing, so I imagine the numbers will stay in the 10,000 range, but what is important is that I think the curve will have flattened
I don't think you can look at this globally and have to look at it country by country. Italy appears to be on a linear growth curve. The US as of yesterday was still on an exponential growth. South Korea has tapered off and new cases are a fraction of resolved cases. Taiwan never had anything other than random uncorrelated infections, etc.
The important thing is that social distance and other public health measures are essential to containing and controlling this.
Death numbers for the last 3 days
3/22 413 +111 (From the day before)
3/23 553 +140
3/24 775 +222 (as of now 10:10 PM EST)
New cases
3/23 +10,168
3/24 +11,074 (as of now 10:10 PM EST)
Keep up the good work.
It is not exponential in the US. look at the graphs and data. If growth factor is less than 1.10, it implies algebraic growth. The transition from exponential to algebraic is the inflection point. That appears to have happened.
What floored me today was the actual penetration into the population. We also know that < 10% of total tests are (+). Advanced data considerations: Washington is on the downward trend. The question is how many people in NYC got the hell out and do they seed other areas in the country?
Seems like you can ask the folks of New Jersey. Doesn’t seem to be spreading as fast elsewhere.
I don’t know, but this certainly didn’t help. From Feb 09, 2020 =>
______
Commissioner Oxiris Barbot
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus.
A Guide to Lunar New Year in NYC
Where to celebrate the holiday.
nycgo.com
9:10 AM · Feb 9, 2020·Hootsuite Inc.
https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1226508570646269954
Do you have a ping list?
I read that as Worldoometer
I am a 20 year freeper and have no idea how to create a ping list :(
How do you calculate growth factor?
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