Posted on 02/27/2020 5:16:25 AM PST by Kaslin
Trump bump
Trump enjoys a 94% approval rating among Republicans, but Democrats split their support between the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren hard-left wing of the party and the so-called moderates. The percentage of the Iowa vote captured by Sanders and Warren came to 44%. But the percentage of the votes received by Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden comes to 54%. Similarly, New Hampshire saw Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Biden getting 53%, with the Sanders/Warren vote fetching 35%. In the Nevada caucus, Sanders did even better, capturing almost 47% of the vote, but the combined percentage of the Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar vote came to just under 39%.
If Sanders survives to reach the convention (I don't believe he will; if not heart failure, Arkancide) with a minority of delegates, he won't win the nomination -- unless he turns out to be better at wheeler-dealing than he's ever demonstrated. If he can make a deal with any of the moderate candidates willing to accept a VP slot (and likely walk right into the Presidency, assuming victory, because who believes Sanders will survive even one term in office?) they'll have to bring with them enough delegates who will also be willing to shift their votes to Sanders -- how big do you think that number is?
Sanders and Warren, despite their having called each other liars on national TV -- both were correct -- will make a deal to pool their delegates, if they haven't already, with the best finish getting the top of the ticket.
More likely, after the first ballot fails, and probably before, the majority will line up behind whomever is number two in delegates and with deals to the other candidates who have delegates (VP slot, cabinet slots). That deal will be locked up before the convention convenes.
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