Will the Economy in 2020 Roar or Whimper?

Townhall.com ^ | January 7, 2020 | Stephen Moore

[a fool in paradise]

Democrats want to monkeywrench it.

[BobinIL]

No. 1: The China trade deal could blow up. Beijing could back out (they’ve done it before), or they could start cheating.

No Doubt in my mind that this will ABSOLUTELY happen in 2020. The Chinese will play the system as long as they can with the hopes Trump isn’t reelected and they can get their (bought and paid for) candidate in office.

[CodeToad]

It’s going to roar.

[Don Corleone]

Will the Economy in 2020 Roar or Whimper?

YES!

[sanjuanbob]

It will do whatever the people want it to do, which in return will decide the election results.

[Harpotoo]

I used to say 24,000 was the bottom but today I’d say 26,000. Is that a bad thing?

[mjp]

So, what could go wrong? Here are four things to worry about:

- an increase in interest rates
- an increase in taxes
- a credit crunch
- a decrease in the rate of growth in the money supply

[Buckeye McFrog]

No. 1: The China trade deal could blow up. Beijing could back out (they've done it before), or they could start cheating. If either happens, Trump hammers them with more tariffs and we are back in a trade war.

Not gonna happen. In such a scenario the ChiCom leadership has WAY more to lose than Trump does. If he informs them that they've made their last shipment to Walmart there will be princelings swinging from trees within a month.

No. 2: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, oh my! If markets start anticipating that any of these anti-growth candidates will win, stocks will tumble. If Trump loses, then we are talking Green New Deal, "Medicare for All," capital gains taxes, wealth taxes and the end of the Trump tax cuts. To say this would be harmful to growth and stocks is a vast understatement. And if Trump loses to one of these candidates, the market could collapse.

Seriously? None of these clowns is going to win. And if it's Biden the Left will quickly be disappointed to learn that he's all talk.

No. 3: The global economy could stay flat. It's been stalled out for the last year or two, and if growth doesn't boost in Europe and elsewhere, it's going to negatively impact U.S. growth. We can't keep carrying the world economy on our shoulders.

Why not? We've been carrying the world economy on our shoulders for decades.

No. 4: The housing bubble could burst again. Don't look now, but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are up to their old tricks, providing near-100% loan guarantees on 2-3% down payment loans. If housing values fall, defaults will soar, as they did in 2008 and 2009. Amazingly, the government has learned none of the lessons from the last housing meltdown.

OK, you've got me there. Real estate in this country IMHO is way, way bubble over-inflated, and with the same idiots at the controls as we had in 2008 a collapse could happen at any time.

[Kaslin]

Who cares what the rats want. We must never allow what they want

[jdsteel]

Forget about the artificial construct of looking at the market based solely by the calendar.

September 2018 we hit a new high for the market and then, based on unfounded fears of a new recession we lost 20% from that high. It took most of 2019 to regain that previous high. That means we’ve had a market that didn’t do much for about a year along with an excellent economy.

IMHO the market is undervalued.

[billyboy15]

Traditionally the markets do well in an election year.

Of course “doing well” is subjective and many investors would say anything less than what we did last year is bad. The historical averages tell us to expect about 8-9% returns each year and I would be happy with that or even less.

What the trader’s on the street say, “Bulls make money, Bears make money, pigs get slaughtered” is something I have kept in mind since I was first schooled in investing.

[MortMan]

No. 1: The China trade deal could blow up. Beijing could back out (they've done it before), or they could start cheating. If either happens, Trump hammers them with more tariffs and we are back in a trade war.

Why is it that it's never described as a trade war when the other side cheats, lies, steals, etc.? It's only a "trade war" when someone on this side says "enough is enough". /rhetorical

[Savage Beast]

It'll either roar (when Trump's re-elected) or crash (when the Democrats figure out how to stop him).

It won't whimper.

It won't crash either. They've already shot their wad--and themselves we hope.

What's really going to be fun is watching Trump's economy soar ever higher as the Democrats and their fellow travelers parade off to jail. And we'll know America has been pulled back from the brink of destruction when the Democrat Party crashes into the garbage dump of history where it belongs.