Posted on 05/18/2019 11:17:20 AM PDT by aimhigh
You must be an old fart like me. Back in the day, the weatherman was usually wrong. But now, the weatherperson is almost always right.
The computers are that good.
Maybe Glenn Beck will enter
Maybe Glenn Beck will enter
Maybe Glenn Beck will enter
Hearts In Atlantis ... loved that movie. Anthony Hopkins is one of the most talented actors I have ever watched.
Rush Limbaugh would win this hands down. The most prolific political psychic in the world!
250K? Chicken feed. Anyone who can see the future can retire in style in about a week on the Forex.
This is not an exercise in statistics... it is crowd-sourcing snitches by pretending to be an exercise in statistics.
They are basing this off of the success of political prediction markets like predictit or intrade where individuals may prosper or fail, but collectively, the markets seems to move in the correct direction to predict the outcome of the event.
Of course these markets will cease to work, when larger players, interested in the outcome of the event, start to game the system and skew the results in their favor by introducing biased or betting on themselves.
...
This,https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge2.html , is a good idea and a continuation of earlier tests such as
2006:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol50no4/using-prediction-markets-to-enhance-us-intelligence-capabilities.html
compare this: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/research-labs/advanced-technology-labs/icews.html
The important issue is not if a specific team will win but the result of their combined estimates and if it is better than any other gambling estimator.
Ummm, you're putting us on, right?
If this isn't something like a study of a subrosa collective unconscious, then a person who can really see the future would not sign up and would leave the cash on the table...
;^)
5.56mm
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