Who or What Is Really Responsible for the Huge Forest Fires in California?

Townhall.com ^ | November 18, 2018 | Bruce Bialolosky

[semimojo]

There’s no doubt that there’s an administrative burden related to prescribed burns, and having spent time in countries that don’t regulate burning I fully support reasonable restrictions.

From your KQED article:

"We have to protect public health; that's our mandate,” says Dar Mims, a meteorologist with the California Air Resources Board. “But we also recognize that we need burning in the forest, and a lot of those trade-offs have to happen in real time because the decisions have to be made—do we want to potentially impact the air basin, or do we want to burn.”

To me that sounds about right in the real world.

Is it possible that air quality restrictions prevented a prescribed burn somewhere in the footprint of the Camp Fire? I suppose, but I haven’t seen any evidence.

Even if they did, given that Cal Fire averages 13k acres of prescribed burns statewide each year and this fire is currently over 150k acres the impact would be minor.

Air quality is one of several factors considered when doing burns, as documented in your links, but your overwrought claims of ‘blood on their hands’ for CARB and Butte County AQ seem simplistic and unsupported by the facts.

[Pelham]

We have a few billionaire tree huggers who buy off the Sacramento commies. They don’t care if wildfires eradicate what they consider to be excess people.

[palmer]

Even if they did, given that Cal Fire averages 13k acres of prescribed burns statewide each year and this fire is currently over 150k acres the impact would be minor.

That's my whole point. Instead up to 100's of thousands of acres they only burn 13k on average. Too small since the 2015-16 El Nino growth season. Some years (mainly 2017) there needs to be a lot more burning. Keep in mind the average burn before settlement (1800) was 4,000,000 a year, natural and set by indians.

In the Santa Rosa fire last year the houses were close together and created a high intesity fire that burned just about everything. But in Paradise the houses and stores were spread out and caught fire from the ember storm. The proof is the many intact trees. Look at the "After" photos,. There was no high intensity fire there, just many, probably hundreds, of simulataneous house fires

The fact that there was a high intensity fire on non-federal lands, high enough to create an ember storm downwind, means there was a lack of low intensity fire or equivalent clearing in those locations.

As for blood on their hands, yes, absolutely. Allowing just 6,000 acres of burning out of a million acres is criminally stupid. They should be put on trial.

[semimojo]

As for blood on their hands, yes, absolutely. Allowing just 6,000 acres of burning out of a million acres is criminally stupid. They should be put on trial.

The restriction is 6000 acres per day. How much of Butte County do you want to burn?

Even if the private landowners wanted it how big of a burn do you think CalFire can safely conduct in one day?

You act as if these air quality restrictions prevented people from conducting burns in the Camp Fire area but have produced zero evidence.

Worse, you say these authorities are responsible for deaths without even identifying one instance where their actions contributed at all.

I’m not sure what CARB did to you or your family but you’re carrying around a lot of baggage.

[gogeo]

Exactly. But logging is a SOURCE of funding, not a use.

[palmer]

CalFire could safely conduct very large prescribed burns, but they don't. The reason they don't is very simple, they are spending their resources putting out minor fires that should be left alone. It is the exact same AQ regulations that force them to put out beneficial fires.

I am also aware that CalFire prohibited residential burning in Butte county around June 11 this year, far too early. The main reason for that is incompetence, they don't understand fire and wildfire. Not a one of them knows that 4,000,000 acres burned every year on average, and they are suppressing fire at a great cost. I'd bet that the prohbition decision was made high up in the bureaucracy. I would fire everyone above the lowest two levels.

My gripe is Californians who blame the USFS, or Trump's budget cuts, or global warming, or other fake news for a problem they created. Many Californians still deny that the AQ regulations apply to the Feds, but they do. California learned nothing from last year's tragedy, and they are well on their way to learning nothing from this year.

I am also fully apprised of the science of low intensity fire. It benefits spotted owls and most other wildlife. OTOH, Jerry Brown worships carbon capture which is basically the opposite. He is emblematic of the problem.

[palmer]

The restriction is 6000 acres per day.

I should add that it takes several days or more to burn any land, especially in safe low mixing weather. Also the safe burning season is quite short between the end of the rains and the very dry conditions.

[semimojo]

CalFire could safely conduct very large prescribed burns, but they don't. The reason they don't is very simple, they are spending their resources putting out minor fires that should be left alone. It is the exact same AQ regulations that force them to put out beneficial fires.

That’s not what they say and their story makes much more sense.

They put out fires more aggressively because they so frequently happen in or near to inhabited areas. Air quality doesn’t enter into it.

The air quality restrictions may occasionally modify when they do burns but it’s a relatively minor factor.

I get that you think there should be more burning. So does most everyone these days. But blaming these deaths on air quality restrictions is intellectually lazy and scapegoating, pure and simple.

CalFire prohibited residential burning in Butte county around June 11 this year, far too early. The main reason for that is incompetence, they don't understand fire and wildfire.

Of course they don’t...

[palmer]

The air quality restrictions may occasionally modify when they do burns but it’s a relatively minor factor.

The regulations state: 9.12.5 Natural Ignition: When natural ignition occurs on a No-Burn Day, the decision to “go/no-go” for resource benefit shall be determined through consultation between the land manager or their designee and the DISTRICT to determine if the burn will satisfy smoke management requirements. The land manager or their designee shall submit a Smoke Management Plan consistent with this Rule within 72 hours of natural ignition.

Remember, a no-burn day means that burning is safe (low mixing) but results in bad air quality. Removing the large threatening fires from the statistics and it shows that CalFire is putting 2-3000 small fires. The report is clear, although understated: https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3798

Currently, CalFire has the stated goal of containing 95 percent of all fires—excluding prescribed fires—at ten acres or less. These firefighting efforts have been highly successful, with the acreage burned by wildfires in California reduced from an estimated annual average of 4.5 million acres in the 1700s to about 1 million acres annually in more recent years. As forestlands have become more developed, firefighting resources have been increased to better protect homes and property, further reducing the number of acres burned annually.

We found in different situations any of these three conditions can impede the ability of a VMP project to proceed. In some cases, weather conditions are such that a prescribed burn might affect air quality conditions in a nearby community in violation of the air quality permit. In other situations, CalFire fire crews are not available to conduct prescribed burns because they are engaged in firefighting activities.

This report is damning although understated. The fact is California will burn 4,000,000 acres on average with a little (unknown) amount of help from indians. Any reduction in that amount of low intensity burning, absent other mitigation, willl result in catastrophic high intensity fires. We can conclude the 4,000,000 is high now, due to development, forest management, grazing, limited logging, and a modicum of prescribed burning. But it's easy to see that managing (all mangement types including burning) less than 300,000 acres after high growth seasons like 2015/16 (and the next season to some extent) will result in catastrophic fire.

[semimojo]

”CalFire has maintained its suppression goal, and generally still seeks to extinguish all naturally occurring fires. This is largely due to the nature of the areas the department is tasked with defending, which often are more developed than national forests.”

Someone should tell them that it’s really about air quality.

“CalFire fire crews are not available to conduct prescribed burns because they are engaged in firefighting activities.”

Again, having nothing to do with air quality.

After many posts and hundreds of words you’ve yet to provide a shred of evidence to back up your slur against the air quality enforcement authorities and their role in the Camp Fire.

I can only conclude that you’ve got nothing.

[zanarchist]

What do you expect when you have fresh water directed toward salt water rivers and oceans just to protect the delta smelt fish which aren’t even native?

[Texas Fossil]

Pretty cold blooded globalist freaks.

[palmer]

And I can only conclude that you didn't read my last paragraph in post 69. And: they put out fires when it is safe to leave them burning because low mixing causes bad AQ. Evidence?

How about 2000 fires they put out? How about all the times they didn't try to get a permit since it would be denied? How about the report I just linked that states that is the #1 reason for fire suppression / lack of controlled burning.

It's the dog that did not bark. Bay Area AQMD didn't allow range management fires until July 1: http://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/files/communications-and-outreach/publications/news-releases/2018/burn_180626_2018_046-pdf.pdf?la=en

That is insane, prohibiting fire until it is actually too dangerous to do it.

[palmer]

My last comment has an error. Range Management fire is restricted per the link I posted. But Wildland Vegetation Management is not restricted by season: http://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/Files/Compliance%20and%20Enforcement/Open%20Burning/Permissive%20Burn%20Periods%200913.ashx

I am still trying to find out how many permits any of these organizations actually issue. Another lack of information is individual fires. CalFire only seems to publish aggregate statistics.

[MarMema]

Humidity in northern Michigan is about 30% until fall. Spring is glorious here. Except you drink a lot....

The reason we never make the news is that we stay on top of wild fire control. We even have air surveillance to watch for them.

[foreverfree]

bump