Posted on 11/04/2018 6:35:41 PM PST by blam
The rallies began in Mashhad last Thursday. The city is a centre of Shia theocracy and also the home of Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline candidate who lost the presidential election to the reformist Hassan Rouhani, and Raisi’s father-in-law, Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda,
Once he decided to publicly address the antiestablishment unrest that's been roiling Iran since late last month, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on January 2 blamed foreign “enemies.”
But reports claiming that an ultra-hard-line cleric and Khamenei ally in Iran's fundamentalist heartland has been summoned by the powerful National Security Council suggested that some elements of Iran's leadership think the initial cause might lie closer to home.
The cleric, Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda, is a staunch critic of President Hassan Rohani, who came to power and won reelection last year pressing for mild social reforms and an opening up of Iranian society.
The New York Times on January 2 quoted an unnamed Iranian security official as confirming that Alamolhoda had been summoned by Supreme National Security Council to explain his role in the original protest.
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-protests-hard-line-cleric-blamed-alamolhoda-rohani-critic/28953373.html
How does this self sufficiency keep oil prices from skyrocketing if the ME blows up?
How ‘instantly’ will all that Iran sand be turned into glass???
You notice since the little commie coward is no longer POTUS there hasn’t been one incident from the Iranians....there is a reason for that. This bastard is just talking because he knows if he acts the world as he knows it will end!!!
You notice since the little commie coward is no longer POTUS there hasn’t been one incident from the Iranians....there is a reason for that. This bastard is just talking because he knows if he acts the world as he knows it will end!!!
Seems like a handful of well placed bullets would destabilize Iran?
25 years ago this might have been a viable threat. Now, Iraq, Kuwait, KSA, Bahrain, UAE and Oman all have pipeline export capability that bypasses the Arabian Gulf and export terminals are located at Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean ports. About the only one severely impacted would be Qatar and they export natural gas mostly, not oil.
Thank You President Jimmy Carter, your foreign policy worked so well, great idea to overthrow the Shah and install the Aitolia!
We can pump our own for wayyy less. The only problem is making sure it is sold to us, and not at artificially inflated prices.
Nice photo of Mecca! (I can dream, can’t I?)
1) Natural Gas. Oil is used for many more uses than auto fuel and energy generation, including feed stocks for pharmaceuticals, plastics, chemicals, fertilizers, lubricating oils , ect. The boom in fracking has created large supplies of natural gas and many US refiners and producers shifted from oil based naphtha feed stocks to natural gas feed stocks. This petrochemical stream is comparatively independent of the oil markets and more insulated from price shocks so it will tend to stabilize prices and prevent supply dislocations. Lots of room for relatively rapid ramp up of production
2) US has not been an oil exporting nation so domestic production is not currently well set up for large scale export. US domestic oil prices float with world prices in an equilibrium market, but in a market driven by Middle East oil shortages the US will be limited in it's ability to export. So while there may be shortages abroad, it is far from a given that there will be shortages here.
3) Ability to rapidly ramp up US and North American production allow rapid increase in supply to meet demand. At price points above $100/ bbl there is a lot of excess capacity. When the Saudis tried to destroy the US fracking industry by dumping oil, the frackers capped existing wells but continued drilling wells in anticipation of future demand. These drilled but otherwise undeveloped wells can be brought on line comparatively quickly to meet demand surges
Interim supply demand can be supplemented by Strategic Petroleum reserves to stabilize US economy if necessary.
4) Lack of elasticity of demand has shown that demand rolls off substantially after fuel, our primary use of oil, hits a certain price of pain - likely about 5-6 dollars a gallon which
5) Our current President seems more than willing to intervene as he sees fit in any circumstance that may endanger our economy. Trump would probably use oil supply security and stability to help recruit manufactures of petrochemical dependent industries to increase their commitment to US production.
We would, of course, see a steep short term price increase in the short term, but medium to long term our domestic oil prices are insulated from astronomical and economically ruinous oil supply disruptions and price increases
Superb answer. Thank you. I thought I’d get the usual it’s “our oil” reply that included price controls and export controls (the 70’s are calling).
Great points and explanation. I may be wrong.
Great points and explanation. I may be wrong.
I doubt SA could occupy Iran on their own even winning every battle.
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They can try. Once they get nukes, they can do it.
“and in 90 minutes all Persian Gulf countries will be destroyed.”
Tip to Ahmad: Iran is a Persian Gulf Country.
The Saudi’s probably have air superiority. How would Iran’s excess population get to Saudi Arabia to fight them? March??
One added question. What would Putin do?
Some 30 or 40 years ago, when the Lebanon fiasco was running bad, I read reports that there were large fossil energy deposits off shore of Lebanon.
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