Posted on 10/22/2018 8:44:55 AM PDT by FtrPilot
The Real Clear Politics method of averaging polls is suspect. Garbage polls are included in their averaging.
Some of you (many of you) live and die by the latest poll, elevating your hopes or dashing them with each new utterance. After the last general election results destroyed so many pollster’s methodology I would believe that media organs would shy away from them. But, no, they have to fill their newscasts somehow and what better way than to breathlessly announce that so and so has fallen behind or it’s too close to call when in fact the margin of error on some polls in as much as 5% either way!
..or Soros money...
Voting has already started.
Polls are useless now.
How do you think the election is going to go?
I say we gain 3-5 in the Senate and hold the House.
Is your favorite prog candidate suffering? Just get a new CNN pole to provide a favorable adjustment to the RCP average.
Funny how all the "competitive" house districts are formerly Republican held seats.
The few new polls show a GOP trend. In competitive districts, the outcome is more likely to match the results in 2014 and 2016, again an advantage to the GOP. This is not going to be a Blue Wave election, it is going to be a status quo election and since most of the toss up races are GOP districts, expect that the GOP will win most of those races.
My prediction takes a look at polls, but discounts the polls more than 30 days old. I look at the results in that district in 2014 and 2016, and I look at the incumbent. Incumbency counts and the incumbent will win 98% of their races. With that in mind, my prediction as of this morning is GOP 218 Dem 205 with 12 races toss up. Those race will split 6 - 6. The Republicans will have a 6 vote advantage in the new House. Disclaimer: I am not a professional politician or a pundit. I live on a hobby farm in Kansas, I haven’t been to Washington for several years. I have a dog who has a great track record on these sort of things.
6-8 in the Senate and we hold the House.
You’re way out in left field bro.
RCP uses garbage polls in their mix. It often under-reports Rep. candidate strength. And polls in general are garbage. Try reading for comprehension.
Good news, but keep in mind that most of the “competitive districts” are now held by Republicans, so they have more to lose, just as the Dems have more to lose in the Senate.
That means we need our fellow conservatives to show up in numbers.
1. I agree with your entire post, especially your last sentence (in italics above).
2. Our key to success is voting.
3. I have already voted, even though I live in a safe district.
I saw Gosnell this weekend. The depravity of these people is breathtaking. The description of what takes place in a post-20 week LEGAL abortion was heartbreaking, yet the Senate couldn’t muster the votes to ban it and millions upon millions have no problem with it. Plus people who support late term abortion are flat out evil. The only difference between Gosnell and places where such is legal is the physical filthiness of Gosnell’s slaughterhouse
Blue wave? These races are going to break for us and we hold the House!
Hi, Laplata-
I believe it is now over 100,000 members in its Facebook group. The #s may be misleading as there are probably folks who believe in the movement though they haven’t signed up on Facebook.
They are to have their WalkAway March on D.C. scheduled for Oct 26-28. I truly hope the #s showing up are a good amount.
I agree!
Read before you accuse. That is exactly what I said, unless there is anyone here who thinks that CNN polls are anything other than made up push-polling garbage designed to tip the RCP average.
Oh, and you might want to dial up the sensitivity of your sarcasm meter. Your needle is pegged to the left.
hi Notthereyet-
I think you’re right...many haven’t signed up on Facebook. And if 100,000 are on Facebook, there’s a huge number that aren’t.
Also, many people will vote R and simply keep it to themselves.
All things considered, the Rats are in trouble. and the more insane they get, the more normal, decent and sane people they drive away.
Thank you so much for reminding us of this timeless truth! God bless you!
See ya dipshit.
How do you think the election will turn out?
I say we gain 3-5 in the Senate and hold the House.
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