Posted on 10/09/2018 4:49:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse
I just spent the last few minutes watching a Panama City TV station via the internet. They’re starting to get the outer bands of Michael, causing downpours and thunderstorms.
They’re pretty nervous about this one. Even so, some have chosen to stay put. I am of the opinion that those who do are nuts.
I don’t think any spot in Panama City Beach is high enough above sea level to escape the storm surge.
please lord slow this storm down and clear of any heavy population centers .
I know people 6-8 miles inland during Katrina that got over 6 of water in their buildings. The surge pushes up the back bays and rivers.
Good night from out West. Best of luck to all in this storm’s path.
With the geography of the Bend, which is unfamiliar to me, how far inland could floodwaters push, and is this storm dumping more rain than others? The graphic shows a cat’s eye with black all around.
Here’s a link to the NHC storm surge forecast as of 11 PM last night.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/033350.shtml?inundation#contents
Wow—storm surge reaches almost to Tallahassee. Eeeesh...
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
Eeyyowww. NHC predicting 145 mph @ landfall.
I’m afraid one of the prettiest places in the Panhandle - Wakulla Springs - is gonna get whacked badly.
If that forecast is accurate, Tyndall AFB is the location it will landfall.
This storm will alter the landscape well inland.
Thanks for your service here, posting these threads.
Having lived in FL for oh, 30+ years, I can freely state this one is going to be very bad. The storm surge is going to wipe away entire beach towns. Just...gone.
When you combine ocean floods of 10+ feet with 100+ mph sideways rain, very little survives. It’s like a firehose attacking a barbie doll house.
Stick your hand outside a car window going 100mph. For an hour. In a rainstorm. Now think of that blasted at your house. With 10 feet of floodwater. And pounding 15 foot waves on top.
Unreal.
Im familiar with Cape San Blas as some close friends used to own a place there, and we went several times. I expect it to be leveled and cut through if this doesnt weaken. Its close to where all the spaghetti models have this thing going ashore, on the dirty side.
Ugly.
We’re scheduled to go down to PCB in two weeks, on the west end, near the Bay/Walton county line. Perhaps it won’t be hit too hard.
October is the best month to visit, imo. Crowds gone, yet water still warm enough to swim.
Gulf County? Looks like a reasonable move if so.
I sure hope people have heeded the evac orders...
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