Posted on 08/08/2018 11:31:35 AM PDT by Kaslin
Bingo. The Demons have their election fraud henchmen in every corner of this country working overtime. The win margin for Balderson, in actual real votes, was probably in the double digits.
The only thing to keep alert about is, the Pubbie seems soft on illegals. Thanks Kaslin.
Green party spoiler candidate in Ohio...says his ancestors were from another planet
U.K. Daily Mail | August 8. 2018 | DAVID MARTOSKO
Posted on 08/08/2018 11:47:35 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3677639/posts
That statistic makes absolutely no sense. You're basing that on a comparison with the 2016 vote without any idea what the breakdown is. How do you know that 74.76% of those who voted for O'Conner were not independents who had voted for Tiberi in 2016? Or that 63.225% of those who voted for Balderson were not disgruntled Democrats and 47.03% of those who voted for O'Conner were not anti-Trumper Republicans?
They haven’t been able to pull an Al Frank since Al Franken pulled an Al Franken. There is close to zero chance of anything like that happening under a tough, aggressive, take no prisoners guy like Trump, in a Republican majority congressional district.
His numbers are wrong. For example, in Delaware County, which is completely in CD-12, Balderson beat O’Connor 32,000 votes to 27,000 votes (rounded, obviously). In 2016, Trump beat HRC 55,000 to 40,000 votes in this county. I think his numbers might be comparing the special election to Ohio’s May 2018 primary turnout.
“...Kasich helped close the sale with Trump-skeptical educated suburban voters.”
What I heard the Mailman say was that Trump’s appearance and endorsement will lose the election for Balderson because of the monster’s effect on those pure suburban Republican women.
His subliminal message was vote for O’Connor. I bet he did
What’s all the chatter. The crappy Repuke representative won. He doesn’t need to win by 50. Dems will lose this seat in November too. If the Dems won do you think they’d be saying, “we only won by a percent”. No one cares. They also lost all the counties but one or two. Pretty pathetic if you ask me. The Repukes wouldn’t have to worry so much if they weren’t all a bunch of globalist sell outs
Thank you! Earlier on another thread I speculated that perhaps the problem was Balderson wasn’t conservative enough, having run as a moderate, only to be blasted by someone insisting Balderson positioned himself as a Trump ally.
“Third, and this is troubling: Ohio Wan told me that they were speaking with callers into the district who were telling the OH GOP that many of the Republicans they called in Licking, Franklin, and Delaware were not aware there was a special election taking place [emphasis added]!””
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I’m not sure I find that troubling. The problem of not knowing an election is taking place will not be there in November. Presumably, gop voters will all be aware of the mid-terms.
Here's the problem: The Kasich Republicans expect us to support their guys when nominated, but they feel themselves under no obligation to support our guys when nominated.
Trump's biggest electoral problem is not Democrats. It's Republicans.
We don’t know that. The early vote is always heavily democratic almost everywhere. It has been clearly documented numerous times that democrats vote early (and maybe often) and that the Republicans need a huge turnout on election day to win. Republicans spend money on GOTV on election day and democrats spend alot of money on getting people to vote early.
The statistic is being mis-understood. 87% of Dems that voted in 2016 turned-out. Of the Reps that voted in 2016 only 40% of them turned-out.
That statistic makes absolutely no sense. You’re basing that on a comparison with the 2016 vote without any idea what the breakdown is. How do you know that 74.76% of those who voted for O’Conner were not independents who had voted for Tiberi in 2016? Or that 63.225% of those who voted for Balderson were not disgruntled Democrats and 47.03% of those who voted for O’Conner were not anti-Trumper Republicans?
Exit polling?
No, O'Conner received 87% of the vote last night that the Albertson received in 2016 while Balderson got 40% of the vote that Tiberi got in 2016. You have no idea how many who voted last night voted in 2016, or what their registration was or who they had voted for two year ago. It is impossible to take the results from last night and project it into November.
"In case you missed it, here's his detailed, pre-election explanation of why a tight win in either direction would be a worrisome sign for the Republican Party. As I mentioned above, this is an R+7 district that Donald Trump carried easily. It's been in the R column for the last 36 years. The previous incumbent won with nearly 67 percent of the vote. Yet last night was nail-biter.(2) Democrats gained considerable ground. In spite of the GOP's not-quite-official win, last night's vote tally represents the latest data point in a long string of 2017 and 2018 elections in which Democrats' share of the vote total has increased by double digits over 2014 and 2016. As I alluded to in the bullet point above, the Republicans' margin of victory in OH-12 in 2016 was 37 points. On Tuesday, it was a hair under one point. That is not a happy trajectory for the party, as it points to strong Democratic candidate recruitment, robust Democratic enthusiasm, disillusionment among a segment of traditional Republican voters, and a hostile national climate. If this district had been even fractionally less red, it could now be in Democratic hands."
This is pathetic "I assume" garbage, without any kind of metrics to see who voted that didn't vote last time, who flipped, new voters, etc.
Anyone who flatly says "The previous incumbent won with nearly 67 percent of the vote." without the bullhorn that ALL INCUMBENTS WIN ON AVERAGE 67 PERCENT OF THE TIME AND WITH SIMILAR PERCENTAGES AND NEITHER OF THESE GUYS WAS THE INCUMBENT, is an absolute f***ing moron and should be disregarded entirely as a source of 'expertise' regarding anything other than naval-gazing.
No, lack of logic. In 2016 the Democrat got 112,368 votes. Last night O'Conner got 99,820 votes. Somehow that means 88% of Democrats turned out. Balderson got 101,574 votes last night, 40% of the 251,266 votes Tiberi got in 2016. It's junk statistics, completely meaningless for predicting what's going to happen in November.
So, what is your forecast for November? A return to ‘normal’ Rep voting patterns or something else?
Plus, there is no chance O'Connor is going to have the kind of edge in fund raising and number of ads run in November.
It's easier for Dems and outside liberal groups to pour money into special elections. But, they don't have the resources to do that the general election.
Solution: Abolish early voting - except for absentee ballots (which should be granted only under limited circumstances).
Early voting, in the relatively short time it has been in effect in most states, works in favor of the 'Rats. Combine that with lack of voter ID cards in most states, same day registration in some, and "Motor Voter" as a Clinton-era abomination all around the country, and you can see why 'Rats have just about every advantage in election procedural changes that have tarnished election integrity over the past two or three decades!
Just an educated guess, but one big factor could be that this special election was held in August (somewhat unusual, I'd say). And it was merely for holding down a House seat for a few months.
Many potential voters in this Ohio district probably didn't even know that there was an election yesterday; others might have been on vacation (August is peak vacation season) and had forgotten to ask for absentee ballots. The same considerations don't hold true as much as for the Democrats, who are better at voter organizing and cheating.
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