Posted on 09/17/2017 6:27:14 PM PDT by LS
(My sources are the various SecState websites)
Good work here! Thank you for posting.
In this part of Pennsylvania, it is prudent to register Democrat so your property tax assessment doesn’t get diddled with. How you vote is quite another matter. I suspect we aren’t the only locality like this.
CO is up 20% democrATs because of pot.
Yeah, evident from last election. Now throw in 101,000 more on top of that!
Just wondering, just how much stronger/better is voter registration(s) as an indicator than polls?
Always a good day when dems are on the decline.
Prayers for Virginia and our Gov race in a few weeks.
So I just have one question, are the drops in RAT registration a result of people reregistering in another party, DTS or Indy? The reason that I am asking is the nearly “universal” problem every state has in dropping anyone, even the dead from the voter rolls.
Don’t know.
PRRI a (yes) polling and analytic company found that with white voters, party affiliation was THE biggest predictor of a vote for Trump (93% of Rs).
So I’d say it’s much, much stronger. It’s what I used to predict Trump’s win almost to the electoral vote in 2016.
R gains not a factor. Democrats will find thousands of uncounted ballots in the trunks of their cars like comedian Franken’s people did.
Do you have information handy as to which states do their
voter registration by party and which states do not?
(or at least on how many do vs. how many do not)
I am in Georgia and we do not register to vote by party
and it is quite foreign to me to have to do that.
Wrong. Voter reg the single biggest predictor of an outcome.
BTW, neither Franken nor Ayotte’s elections would survive the #s I’m seeing.
Yes, among the battleground states. These, plus MD and OR, do reg by party.
I didn’t look at HA, AK, or the rest of the South which aren’t competitive. I can’t recall about MO, but since both Minion & Trump carried it, I’m not worried.
So the only ones that really might be cause for concern about missing data are GA, VA, MI, WI, and TX.
Do you have any data on how this compares with previous years, say 2009 and 2013? Were D registrations up because of Dem administration? Are we seeing more purging of the rolls now leading to the decline in D registrations?
Very interesting LS. Do you think there are any secondary implications in primary voting by crossovers that play a part in this trend in the states where it is practical?
Bookmark
Apparently, 28 states (plus DC) require party declaration and 22 do not.
States that do not:
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois,
Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri,
Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee,
Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
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source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
This is delightful. Thank you.
I check the Iowa voter registration numbers on the first of every month when they are updated. You are correct that the Republican margin has grown every month this year.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/regstat.html
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