Posted on 09/09/2017 2:08:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906693759894769664
Tampa Bay area. Adjusted official forecast line vs long term track.
Yeah, from watching radar, it looks like the outer eyewall is nearly complete and is choking off the inner eyewall, so there’ll be a bit of a jump. Trend is right towards Key West.
I’m actually trying to figure out where their shelter plans would be to stay in Key West when the hurricane and surge arrives; I just can’t imagine trying to cross the causeway, well, even at this moment, much less a few hours from now.
I don’t think there are really any variables that the meteorologists haven’t discovered.
However, they are just that - variables.
The whole system is in a constant state of change and flux and they are trying to forecast future events using only current data.
And as the variables change, often unexpectedly, then the whole situation can shift with no warning. It’s not possible to forecast all the things that *MIGHT* happen, or not.
They do the best they can with the information they have and the equipment they have.
The problem is less their uncertainty and more the unrealistic expectations people have of what weather forecasting is capable of.
Shot matches the frame on the live feed, looks like the right time of day, and been seeing idiots doing that exact same shot all day long. Seems real to me.
There’s a thread about some really mean Tweets against Trump’s Florida supporters...so hateful!
I watched that one happen. There was a couple sitting on the low wall a little later knocked off by a wave as well.
10pm has it still going 295 degrees WNW.
Still no real turn yet toward Florida.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL112017
I think I mis-read their table and they’re actually calling for a slight EAST of North track!
Have a different notation than usual.
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1000 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WIND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...
A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key recently reported
sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph
(100 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph
(80 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
The Fox weather guy just said that the turn would happen during the night.
Meant to say at 10pm it is 300 degrees WNW.
Beware short range extrapolation & wobbles. Long duration only. Gradual turn will accelerate with time next 3-4hrs. Still, steady. pic.twitter.com/ZH1kR6I71H— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) September 10, 2017
Whoa! That’s from 5 days ago.
Got it off the first Irma thread.
Goes to show that FR is the place for good info, fast.
“And as the variables change, often unexpectedly, then the whole situation can shift with no warning. It’s not possible to forecast all the things that *MIGHT* happen, or not.”
.........
Agreed...and, better said, the things that cause the variables to change...perhaps, “subvariables” or variables within the variables, they cannot possibly see or predict...chaos or whatever you wish to call it is incalculable. Kind of like we’ll never discover the smallest particle components of a cell or an atom...not possible.
Those don’t bother me. I like the high roads.
Bridges across open water freak me out. Driving to OBX I just about freaked. My bride hates the mountain passes, so it evens out
Thanks for the info...I was truly amazed when I first saw that...
There’s a thread about some really mean Tweets against Trump’s Florida supporters...so hateful!
10pm has it still going 295 degrees WNW. Still no real turn yet toward Florida.
Winds back down to 120 mph from 125 earlier.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.