Posted on 11/07/2016 6:43:11 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
I agree, it’s a great improvement. But I really despise HRC and the dems. I was hoping to get to watch a massive bloodbath of a loss for them. So far, doesn’t look that way.
Election predictions?
Florida and Nation
Electoral College
Early voting ended yesterday in FL.
Oh god. I can’t. I am cautiously optimistic.
538 just swapped Florida and NC back to Clinton. Nate’s a chicken *hit.
New Trafalgar poll of Fla:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitUTc5eVFiWERJRFE/view
Well then if that’s true, even if you assume all over things being equal... Trump wins.
However we know all other things won’t be equal... Hillary turnout and support will be down from D12, Trumps will be up from D12... I don’t see any calculus where Trump doesn’t take FL solidly....
The notion that Hillary can outperform OBAMA anywhere is laughable on its face... 2012 was a bogus baseline to use for Dems... and it has caused them and the MSM to misread reality all cycle.
Crossover advantage is more powerful than Independent advantage.
A crossover is -1 Dem and +1 Rep, a double whammy. So if you project just a 3% Trump crossover advantage it gets multiplied by the TOTAL VOTES CAST D+R. An independent advantage of X% is multiplied only by the independent votes cast.
Not going to happen, Nate’s an advocate, not a statistician no matter what he tries to claim.
Trump gets FL by 3-4... NC by even more.
Charlie Gasperino was just saying that the democrats focused on the Puerto Ricans moving into Florida so much that they greeted them at the airports with voter registration.
The notion that Hillary will get 90% D support is false... its not ever been true, and I know the polls keep trying to sell that, but its not going to happen.
Hillary is going to under perform not both Obama 12 and Kerry 04 numbers in big ways, particularly among 2 of the biggest voting blocs that Dems have... White Working Class D Voters, and AA D Voters. Trump isn’t going to win either group outright, but he is going to take very very large segments of them as they cross over.... Hillary has not path to victory... and anyone who’s honest knows this.
She can’t lose significant percentages of the D’s 2 largest constituencies to Trump and have any prayer at a victory.. yet that is EXACTLY what everything is indicating is happening.
Check Drudge Siren. Funny. I wonder if he got that himself or from you.
Met Puerto Ricans at the airport? That’s just bizarre. Most of the people on those planes are vacationers returning to the US. I cry BS.
I like it. Trump’s lead slightly higher than my 2.5% prediction.
So many states hang on the Indy vote. Colorado & Florida two of the biggest. I keep saying to myself, almost all polls show Trump winning the Indys.
Thanks for the good news! Feeling tense here on Election Eve.
Good point. Very, very good.
It is his “World Exclusive”
Unfortunately, he has 1 day old stats.
Should be reading this thread more!
I am not a mathematician nor a statistician, but the Florida numbers don’t look bad at all to me. My back-of-envelope calculations:
BEST CASE scenario for Hillary: assume she actually has an 88,000 vote lead right now (assume 88,000 Dem > Rep early vote lead translates perfectly to a Clinton > Trump lead, and early voting Indies were evenly split); AND there are only 2 million voters are left to vote tomorrow (making the total Florida vote around 8.5 MM, as in 2015). I don’t think Hillary can hope for much better than this.
EVEN WITH ALL THAT, Trump would only need to win the election-day voters by about 4.5% to win the state. If you believe the polls showing him winning election-day voters big, this is not a problem.
NEXT BEST CASE for Hillary: same as above, but assume there are 3 million election-day voters left (making total Florida vote around 9.5MM), as has been estimated.
In that scenario, Trump would only need to win election-day voters by around 3% to win the state.
CONSERVATIVE CASE FOR EARLY-VOTER SPLITS: assume there was a net +2 crossover Dem to Rep among early voters AND Trump won early voting Indies 52/48:
In this scenario, Trump currently leads among all early voters by around 65,000 votes (around 1%)
LESS CONSERVATIVE CASE FOR EARLY-VOTER SPLITS: assume net +5 crossover Dem to Rep among early voters AND Trump won early-voting Indies 55/45:
In this scenario, Trump currently leads by around 300,000 votes (around 4.5%)
I’m not a statistician either, but I play one on the Internet!
I agree with your numbers. Romney won Is by 5%. I think Trump can do 7-10%. I’m using 8% for Is and about 70,000 crossovers net for my prediction of 230,000 Trump win in Florida.
“It’s wild that Clinton’s going to campaign in Allendale, Mich.—a small town in Dutch, GOP west Michigan. Voted 69-30 for Romney in ‘12”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.