Tax Cuts, King Dollar & Growth

Ummmm....the consumer saw a 10% price increase and the retailer saw a drop in profit. Neither are outsiders.

You missed the massive drop in demand/sold I mentioned? I don't understand why this is so hard for you. If the cost increase came from tariffs they would have been the ones hurt the most in terms of aggregate profit. If people don't buy coffee, they buy other beverages so the retailer (us in this case) didn't lose much, if any and consumers just shifted to other products (maybe not quite as much utility).

Here - I'll give you another example for Walmart (or pick your retailer) that is very realistic. Walmart buys widget toy X from China for $2.70 and it costs another $0.10 for distribution from their warehouses for a total cost of $2.70. The toy cost Chinese company $1.50 to make and deliver from China (total profit $1.20). The last time Walmart did a RFP, the cheapest US option for the same toy is $3.00. This toy retails for $5.99
Let's say the US implements a 15% tariff. That $2.70 with 15% tariff is now $3.10, a $0.40 increase. Would consumers see a $0.40 increase? No - Walmart can already buy for $3.00 from US production, which would make it a $0.30 increase. Additionally, The Chinese company has $1.20 in profit margin to play with rather than lose the entire business. The Chinese lower their sale price to $2.50 + tariff, now totaling $2.88 in aggregate to Walmart. Walmart is unlikely to raise the price above $5.99 so in this scenario consumers lost nothing, US taxpayers made $0.28 in tariffs, and Walmart lost $0.18, and the chinese company lost $0.20 compared to previous.

Except for the belief that tariffs don't tax our citizens.

It is a(n indirect) tax on citizens but again not all of that tax hits citizens, as my example above illustrates. It's still far preferably to a direct tax. For example in my scenario, the government could lower corporate taxes by $0.28 and thus you end up with US consumers with no change, walmart is net $0.10 cents (0.18 loss of GP + 0.28 gain on taxes) and the only loser is the Chinese firm.

You missed the massive drop in demand/sold I mentioned?

No. Not even a little. As shown by my comment.

"Tariffs cause losses on all sides? You don't need to convince me of that"

See?

I don't understand why this is so hard for you.

I'm still focused on your claim that something that raises the price I pay, is paid for by "outsiders".

That $2.70 with 15% tariff is now $3.10, a $0.40 increase. Would consumers see a $0.40 increase? No - Walmart can already buy for $3.00 from US production, which would make it a $0.30 increase.

Excellent example. Here, the $0.40 tariff raised the price WalMart paid by $0.30. Not an "outsider".

It is a(n indirect) tax on citizens

Yes, not a tax on an "outsider".

I didn't ignore anything. Your idea that only "outsiders" pay when we raise a tariff is ridiculous. You were wrong.

Glad that you admitted we would actually pay.

Yes, it would reduce some imports, harm some foreign producers and aid some US manufacturers while harming many more consumers.

That about cover what you felt I ignored?

Nice strawman. Where did I state that only outsiders pay tariffs? Ive already stated multiple times its usually split between consumers, domestic businesses and outsiders. In the case of other taxes it's only consumers and domestic business

Let's let's try a different approach. Assuming you aren't an anarchist, you agree that the government needs *some* taxes, right? There are only 4 ways to raise taxes of any significance. Personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, property taxes and tariffs. The first 3 100% of the burden is borne by US citizens. The last (tariffs) is partially borne by US citizens and partially borne by outsiders. Therefore, logic would dictate tariffs should be the first tax we add to cover the budget since at least some portion effects others (we could argue the % all day) and the other taxes last (which is 100% borne by US). For the first 150 years of our nations existence, that's exactly what we did. Today, just 1% of the federal budget and ~0.5% of taxes collected overall come from tariffs.

Where did I state that only outsiders pay tariffs?

I thought you said that in post #7?

besides a tariff on outsiders makes far more sense than taxing the US base

you agree that the government needs *some* taxes, right?

Sure.

Personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, property taxes and tariffs.

And sales taxes.

The first 3 100% of the burden is borne by US citizens. The last (tariffs) is partially borne by US citizens and partially borne by outsiders.

Outsiders suffer from loss of sales, sure. It's still Americans paying the tax.

Therefore, logic would dictate tariffs should be the first tax we add to cover the budget since at least some portion effects others (we could argue the % all day)

Tariffs aren't very good at raising revenue. The best ones would be ones you can't avoid. Do you agree? So one on oil could raise a lot of revenue, right?

For the first 150 years of our nations existence, that's exactly what we did.

Yes, everyone knows that tariffs and excise taxes on alcohol raised most of the revenue in our early history. If we could shrink the government by 90%, we could probably go back to that system. I don't suggest we hold our breath.

Sigh. Not all of the loss would be borne by US citizens. Some of it would come from margin compression from the foreign entity. Whether that’s 1% or 99% would depend on the item in question. You seem to think it’s closer to 0% would be borne by margin compression for the foreign entity. I think with the exception of oil, at least 40% would come from margin compression for the foreign company and we can use the taxes gained from the tariff to offset the higher prices by cutting personal and business taxes. I’m not suggesting we could raise $3+ trillion from tariffs, but I think we could probably pull our US corporate tax rate down to 0-5% with tariffs. And yes, I’d love for our federal government to shrink 90%.

I think with the exception of oil

What about the inefficiency of an oil tariff? We import about 8 million barrels of crude daily and produce about 9 million barrels daily. Any tariff will raise less than half the cost it imposes on crude consumers.

I’m not suggesting we could raise $3+ trillion from tariffs, but I think we could probably pull our US corporate tax rate down to 0-5% with tariffs.

How much $$$ would you like to raise with tariffs?

I agree, but as I already mentioned oil is nearly perfectly inelastic. There is nothing else in the world remotely like it today. Most goods that we import are elastic products with a massive number of alternatives products.

How much $$$ would you like to raise with tariffs?

Assuming income neutral, I'd eliminate corporate US taxes and make up the rest from import taxes - roughly 300 to 400 billion. This is also, ironically, probably the property size the federal government should be.

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