Posted on 03/31/2016 7:31:57 PM PDT by DrewsDad
LOLOL....they’re all calling out the lies...making them all liars...that’s all that says.
Largely due to 2 polls that both show him up by 10 points... remove those and the average is Cruz up by 1.25 points.
We’ll see how this goes down, but personally I think ANY poll that shows anyone up double digits in Wisconsin is flat out bonkers. No one is going to win WI by 10 points, it will be a close win or loss either way.
If I was to predict a surprise out of WI, I would bet on Kasich out performing his polls. After the last two weeks of garbage, I would expect more than a few folks to decide screw both the “buffoons” and vote for Kasich in protest. Won’t be enough for him to win, but if there was something unexpected to look for out of WI, that is what I would keep my eye on.
That explains it then, no one is going to win WI by 10 points. Cruz may pull off a win, but if he does it will be a slim one... no one is likely to win WI by 10 points or more.
I agree. Real Clear Politics has Cruz up by 4 on the average, but I think it’s closer since RCP only uses landline/cell traditional polling.
I think this race will be within the MOE, but I do think Cruz is leading. It is the late deciders who have made the difference for Cruz lately.
Trump needs something to rock Cruz or boost himself this weekend or Monday leading into the vote.
The media/politico strategy has been all out assault starting 48 hours prior to the voting in all of the primaries. It won’t be different here.
We want late deciders to split or to go for Kasich.
I agree, that the polling has been trending Cruz, and I do believe and have said WI is a place where Cruz could pull off an upset, but its also one of the last places left on the map for him to do so...
He’ll almost certainly take Montana, Nebraska and SD.. but where else can he win? Possibly WI, and then maybe IN?? Only other place might be a surprise in one of the small new England states, which I doubt.
There’s no plausible path for Cruz to 1237, all he can do is try to play spoiler. However if Cruz pulls out Wisconsin the narrative will be, Trumps dead, the tide is turning, blah blah blah, for the next two weeks, until Cruz heads into NY and the Trump buzzsaw just eviscerates him... He’s polling something like 60% there to Cruz teens to 20s...
WI I believe will be close, and yes the polls are trending toward Cruz slightly, but the two polls both showing 10 point leads for him I think are just crazy.. no one will win WI by that sort of margin either way.
The key to WI is likely going to be turnout... since WI is an open primary, who turns out and did the polls adequately capture those who will? a 1.25% lead for Cruz is miniscule, all it takes is a slight miss in the new voter turnout or those who cross party and that small of a margin is rapidly swallowed up. Personally I think Trump will win by a small margin, because I do believe that there are folks who are going to be showing up to vote that the polls just aren’t catching.
With that said however, at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins, or Cruz wins it... but the idea either one of them will win by double digits, especially after the last 2 weeks where both of them have looked honestly bad across the board is to me laughable.
As I said, I would look out for Kasich to outperform his 20% polling by a good bit if I were going to call the surprise of the night.
Tuesday night we find out.
I do agree its been a bad week or two, for Trump and Cruz, because of this, I fully expect Kasich to overperform.
I’d rather the RNC, financial Titans hiding behind nefarious organizations and the paid off media stop manipulating and lying and let the people decide this election cycle. But they deserve Cruz and like Obama the voter’s get what they deserve, especially the hardship, for being weak minded and easily swayed by puppet masters.
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