Posted on 12/13/2015 5:33:04 AM PST by GonzoII
I would think everyone on here should be excited about these polls. Cruz/Trump indicates the electorate in searching for a Trump alternative may take Cruz rather than a GOPe type much further down. That is a good thing.
They tried Jeb, then Carly, and now Rubio. And none of them ever get serious traction. Cruz did.
The Cruzers have been waiting for you, Tom, watch out!
Seriously, this is where it is I think.
You seem like an angry guy C. Edmund,,,Lighten up, it’s Sunday...
I am in the process of running an Iowa simulation that evaluates all 99 counties based on Caucus/General Election results since 2004.
Trump isn’t going to win IA. The votes aren’t there. It’s just simple fact.
Caucus Turnout Projections are estimates at around 135,000 (some outlets believe it will be 140,000 - others higher). In 2008/2012 it was roughly between 120,000 and 128,000 respectively.
When you look at the 99 counties and results, it’s easy to identify voters and what category they fall into for estimation purposes. Like an Evangical Voter, an Establishment Voter, a RuPaul voter, etc. Most of the counties have been remarkably solid in terms of the number of voters.
At 135,000, we’ve seen some polls say Cruz was at 31% and this one say he’s at 28% or somewhere between 37,000 and 42,000 votes which is higher than what Huckabee received in 2008, but is consistent because (1) Huckabee had Fred Thompson to contend with for Evangelical votes which cut into his finishing totals and (2) Cruz has consolidated the Evangelical vote although he’s still sharing with Carson, but as Carson goes down, Cruz’s numbers will go up. Cruz also appeals to Tea Party (Gingrich/Perry) people and Libertarians (Pauls). Given the usual makeup of the GOP Caucus voters in IA, someone who has consolidated this base has a solid advantgage by default. Cruz is doing that. He has room to go even higher. If several people drop out it would not surprise me to see Cruz finish with 40% or more.
For Trump, when it comes to turning out the numbers, there’s not going to be all too many new voters in those small counties. It’s gonna have to come from the blue counties (Polk, EA IA, etc). Reviewing the data (I’m 55 of 99 counties through), it’s looking like he’s going to be capped at around 27%, which with this turnout would put him around 37,000 votes or just under the overall vote total Huckabee received in 2008. To get any more than that, he would have to get a vote number higher than Mitt Romney and Ron Paul COMBINED (good for about 45,000 votes) and those voters simply don’t exist in that number in IA. If they existed, the RuPaltard machine would have churned them out at the last caucus.
Further look at this poll that questioned “definitely attend” vrs “probably attend”. In the definitely category Cruz is winning by 7 point. In the probably, Trump is ahead by 3. Things like the weather could play a factor. Also, some of Trump’s moderate/liberal supporters may stay out of the contest or vote in the Democratic caucus for Bernie Sanders if that race is shown to be tighter than the race between Trump and Cruz.
Bottom Lines:
Cruz is somewhere between 35-40% (he can go higher if more drop out)
Trump is capped at around 27% and that number could get lower if his new voters don’t show up or they vote in the Dem Caucus instead.
The CNN/ORC poll was a fallacy. Not that Trump could be leading, but there is NO statistical way Trump would be leading in IA with 33% to only 20%. When you look at their sample, the poll was skewed with many moderates/liberal types.
If I had to guess, Trump’s biggest enemies going into the IA Caucus are (1) The Weather on 1 Feb and (2) Bernie Sanders as it relates to whether he is competitive against Clinton in IA or not.
Lol...21 points...is that all?
Where’s your confidence dawg?
Yep, for the first time in a long time, not an estab hack anywhere near the lead....finally, there are 4-5 establishment candidates (depending on who you say is legit etc) and that's helping the good guys. Not only is the establishment vote split - it's smaller in total than ever before.
That’s what the poll was showing.......dawg.......and you were the one indicating that this poll meant SC was in the bag.....I was simply seeing if you were willing to put your money where your mouth is.
Apparently not.
Sounds about right that Cruz is winning now. The person who wins Iowa usually cannot win. See Saint Rick, Huck. A nice moral victory for Cruz supporters if they pull it off in Iowa.
I agree, well played.
Now this poll is pretty much in line with where I think things are in IA (10 points is beyond silly). And it’s more or less where Carson was before the media decided that, as #1, they needed to open fire on him.
Nope. I have consistently said 10 points as beyond silly, that the IA race “RIGHT NOW” is about a 2-5 point race, that PPP would probably show that. In other words, Cruz is right where Carson was before he tanked.
“Trump could shuck his third wife and marry an Evangelical. That type of personal example might prove he’s one of them.”
That’s some funny shit right there.
Many conservative pundits have been tirading against Trump the last six-months. And those same pundits have now have spent the last 45 days pushing Rubio without success. That alone should be cause for cheer.
The best part is that the establishment clowns like Bush, Christie, Huck, etc won’t drop out until it is too late. They all need to drop out now to give Marco a chance, but they won’t.
Will vote for Cruz or Trump. As long as they are on top I may be able to “endeavor to persevere”.
Believe Trump would be best able to shake things up as he has the ability to speak directly to the people. However, Cruz is a brilliant person who can be great if he can overcome the constant attacks from the press and GOPe especially congressional leadership.
CRUZ CRUZ CRUZ CRUZ CRUZ!!!!!
Anyone who thinks Cruz will not win Iowa is not well versed in history or politics.
Cruz wins Iowa easily.
Then Trump runs the board thereafter.
Keep in mind Iowa usually picks the loser in the generals.
What implosion?
Except for the last two presidents.
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