Posted on 08/18/2015 6:14:54 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
Yebbie in decline, Trump ascendant.
I see one particular name missing from their poll and that’s okay by me if he continues flying under the radar for a lonnnnnng time...until the primaries.
I misspoke. Permit me to restate:
I see one particular name missing from their poll and that’s okay by me if he continues cruzin’ under the radar for a lonnnnnng time...until the primaries.
Donald Trump has won his party's trust on top issues more than any other Republican presidential candidate, and now stands as the clear leader in the race for the GOP nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC poll.The survey finds Trump with the support of 24% of Republican registered voters. His nearest competitor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, stands 11 points behind at 13%. Just behind Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 9%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 8%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul 6%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich all land at 5%, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounding out the top 10 at 4%.
Cruz came in at 4%.
Here's where Cruz came at 4%...
BASED ON 302 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 204 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 506 REPUBLICANS--
SAMPLING ERROR: +/-4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
19 [question 19]. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in 2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, or Scott Walker. (RANDOM ORDER)
Cruz was in the poll data.....
The biggie is with both all GOP and registered voters, “Which candidate can best handle the economy?”
Trump is at 45% for both—and no other candidate breaks double figures for either.
That is huge.
Trump has the highest favorables but also the highest unfavorables. I’m not conversant enough on polling science to know how to interpret that.
Once again, you both are correct. When the print gets too small, R2z is gone.
Yes it is because “it’s the economy, stupid”
If you take out Bush (who is getting his support from Democrats via Op Chaos 2016) it looks to me like the most support is for outsiders - Trump and Carson.
It’s nice to see Yeb’s steady decline.
Trump should be in 30+ by September.
He’s known by 99% of those interviewed, is new to the arena, and is getting thoroughly lambasted in the press.
But lots of those are GOP voters who don’t like Trump because they back another candidate whose parade Trump is raining on. They’ll come around for the general election.
Also, he’s never gonna get more than just a little over 50% of those who vote in the general—but that’s winning.
Also, this is at best polling “registered”, not “likely” voters. Likely voters reliably lean a little more to the GOP than Dems.
Also, Trump is making huge inroads in the infrequent-voter independents and conservative Democrats—so the infrequent voters who will vote if he is the nominee will also be skewed more toward him than the usual GOP candidate.
Finally, once people actually here him speak at length, he wins many over. So it is not surprising that his negatives have fallen—and likely will continue to fall if he becomes the nominee. (And even being named the nominee will give him credibility in his new arena of politics.)
CNN’s polling is useless. Yes, I’m sure all the Trump fans will be happy he’s #1... but every other poll shows that. They’re still skewed heavily for Jeb Bush. About the only interesting news bit is that Trump and Bush are absolutely unelectable (although Trump may have a much better chance to re-create his image as he persists in the campaign, and CNN is horribly skewed towards liberals).
Walker as a boogie-man to the left still has negatives at only 31%; that’s not bad. I’m very surprised to see GOP-e Kasich so low in negatives, but that could be the CNN skew towards the GOP-e. It’s very telling that they don’t poll Cruz at all... and laughable that they have him down at 4%.
Yep, they ask specific questions about Trump, Rubio, Bush, Walker, and iCarly before they get to the pick. That is why Carson and Cruz are lower than the other polls and the above are all higher. This was a push poll.
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