Posted on 02/18/2015 4:31:56 AM PST by thackney
Well, right now prices are relatively low so we will have to wait and see what the future holds.
I do find the hemp article interesting. Wonder how “big oil” feels about it?
Prior to the recent US production boom OPEC favored a price range of $100-$125 bbl. I think the market will settle (excepting short term noise) in the range of $75-$100 bbl.
This is, of course, dependent upon political factors.
Majors in the oil industry tend to have a long term view. Too many of their projects take a decade from spending money to making money.
If the EPA would be shut down, with available technology, there would be decent-sized 60MPG diesels, and without $3000 and 200 pounds of junk.
Moreover, with rapid decline rates, the shale revolution is expected to fade away in the 2020’s,
if those investments are not made today we will not see that badly needed production growth around the 2020s,
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Tesla wants to be producing 500,000 cars a year by 2020. The rest of the world’s auto makers will likely kick in another 500,000 cars annually. That number will go up from there.
The auto industry is moving toward much more serious investments in alternative fuels.
Then there’s this that’s started making the papers in the last month or so.
Meet the guy who’s reportedly running the secret Apple car project
http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-zadesky-apple-car-profile-2015-2
imho the big revolution in the next five years will be that batteries and maybe even fuel cells will be ready for prime time. In the next five years there will be a rapid change of the auto infrastructure over to alternative fuel vehicles.
between now and about +-2025 oil prices will gyrate wildly.
Tesla sales forecast cut by 40%
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/17/investing/tesla-oil-prices/
Adam Jonas, auto analyst with Morgan Stanley — and long a bull on Tesla — published a note Wednesday forecasting that Tesla will only be able to sell just under 300,000 cars by 2020. That’s far short of the 500,000 cars that Tesla is predicting it will sell by that date.
The biggest drag on Tesla sales will be the lower-priced, mass market Model 3 expected in showrooms in about three years.
Jonas’ doubts that Tesla will be able to price the Model 3 in the $35,000 range as many have been expecting. He’s now thinking the price could be closer to $60,000.
“While nobody buying a Model S today (for nearly $105,000) is doing so to save on their monthly expenses, the longer-term story is far more dependent on the volume success of the Model 3,” he wrote in the note. “Oil price is a factor for Model 3.”
Tesla’s Loss Widens as Deliveries Fall Short
http://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-loss-widens-as-spending-increases-1423695065
Elon Musk said all is well with Tesla Motors Inc. and predicted brighter days in 2015, even as the company reported that its fourth-quarter loss widened to $108 million, missing analysts’ forecasts, as deliveries of its $71,000-and-up luxury electric cars fell short of an already lowered forecast because of weather and customers unable to accept deliveries.
The car maker, based in Palo Alto, Calif., posted a loss of 13 cents a share, below analysts’ consensus expectations for a 31-cent-a-share profit, both adjusted to exclude stock-based compensation and other costs.
the big revolution in the next five years will be that batteries and maybe even fuel cells will be ready for prime time
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I’ve heard that claim about batteries for decades.
It isn’t the range of batteries that is the problem it’s the long recharge time.
I would say it is both, along with life expectancy.
In 1799, Alessandro Volta developed the first electrical battery. This battery, known as the Voltaic Cell, consisted of two plates of different metals immersed in a chemical solution. Volta's development of the first continuous and reproducible source of electrical current was an important step in the study of electromagnetism and in the development of electrical equipment.
http://www.ieeeghn.org/wiki/index.php/Milestones:Volta%27s_Electrical_Battery_Invention,_1799
In addition I am hearing that exploration started slowing pace in 2014 due to the risk of some countries adding or increasing their “reserves” or amortization tax structure. New finds may be impacted by tax structure as much as actual discoveries - in short we aren't going to explore in Country A because of their tax structure.
Devon Energy expects production to rise this year even as it cuts capital spending
According to the USGS the Green River Formation weighs in at 3 TRILLION Barrels, with 1 Trillion barrels recoverable with todays technology.
The known worlds reserves of oil are about 1 Trillion barrels.
we talking for global consumption? I see anything from 30 - 35bb
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Depends if you count only “oil” meaning liquid in the ground and still liquid at atmospheric temp/pressure, or include items like Natural Gas Liquids.
78 Million Barrels a day for the first.
~90 Million Barrels a day for the second.
Some numbers will include all liquid fuels, including ethanol, biodiesel, refinery gain from splitting large hydrocarbons into less dense transportation fuels. About 92 MMBPD for that.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
Green River isn’t oil, but kerogen that requires retorting to produce, then conversions to a synthetic crude. Technically recoverable isn’t the same as economically recoverable. Proved Reserve numbers require technically and economically recoverable, so they actually go down with oil prices.
Methane Hydrates are huge, but so far, so are the cost for recovery.
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