Scouter's Updated Ebola Model (Vanity)

Self | September 19, 2014 | Scouter

[Kartographer]

To me the key is Logistical Support. If the infection rate and death rate rises to a point in which it over whelms the the systems Medical/Logistical support capabilities then the ‘genie’ is truly out of the bottle.

A truly serious as well as unknown factor will be people reactions and how much of government services, manpower and logistical support might have to be diverted to handle panic arising from such.

We are seeing this in Africa right now if it reaches a point in which it becomes unsafe or impossible for medical teams securely preform their duties the spread of the disease could quick start spreading virtually unchecked.

[ansel12]

It is kind of an amazing head start to dealing with such things though.

Most of the homes in America are probably superior to some of the primitive field clinics run by Africans.

Some of us forget that a typical American home is full of porcelain and stainless steel surfaces, a laundry room, tubs and showers, screened windows, scalding hot water, bleach, and antiseptics, air conditioning and communications, and people who can understand and follow basic medical instructions, and that will eagerly seek more knowledge and solutions to such medical threats to their families.

Our people eat vitamins and walk through drugstores and pharmacy and cleanser and disinfectant sections of grocery stores that are extraordinary, yet just a part of our daily shopping for bread and milk.

We are many stages ahead of where the Africans are. Even in mass catastrophes we have huge modern buildings to move people, to warehouse them and still have modern plumbing, and electricity and easy access and such, we even have vast amounts of plastic and construction goods and Home Depot materials and bedding to set up makeshift clinics in warehouses and other buildings, that again, would be the envy of African medical people. We even have the ability to move resources vast distances almost instantly, for example from Seattle to Chicago if needed.

None of this cures Ebola, but it sure is a different reality than what those poor saps in Africa face.

[scouter]

Can you show the graphs on a semi-log scale too, if you get a chance?

You mean like this?

[Pollster1]

Just a reminder: Soap breaks down viruses, but the last time I checked, anti-bacterial hand sanitizers did not break down viruses.

[Pollster1]

More bad news: The natural rate of epidemic growth varies from country to country. If this model separated the countries, the numbers would be even worse - FAR worse!

[cuban leaf]

It was kind of a “joke post” meant to point out that our hygene standards are a bit higher and it seems to matter.

[RinaseaofDs]

Yup.

If you can plot the projections on a semi-log scale, it will be easier to see where you see the disease upshifting to a higher gear.

[Smokin' Joe]

There is the issue, even here in the event of an outbreak of supplies of PPE, disposal, etc. I do not think being 'more advanced/civilized/technologically capable' as some seem to think will make any difference, except to permit the more rapid and distant spread of the disease.

It would not take long, for instance, for the sanitation workers to figure out they could be getting exposed to the disease and just not show up for work. We have seen how well a garbage worker's strike works in an urban area.

That, however, is just one of many sectors where employees might decide the paycheck is no longer worth the risk, and the absence of or undermanning of those sectors could lead to a breakdown of common services and a loss of civility which has the potential to spread far beyond areas directly affected by the disease, especially with the current social climate in the US having been whipped to a frenzy by recent events and the media.

I think the same quandry applies here as there: at what point do those who enforce a quarantine kill those seeking to escape it out of fear for their lives?

The very real possibilities get very ugly very fast as food, fuel, and other shipments are delayed or stop due to travel restrictions, hazards, or no-go areas.

The system is more fragile than many believe.

[scouter]

The natural rate of epidemic growth varies from country to country. If this model separated the countries, the numbers would be even worse - FAR worse!

I have the data. I'll work on it.

[scouter]

If you can plot the projections on a semi-log scale, it will be easier to see where you see the disease upshifting to a higher gear.

I'll work on it.

[Vermont Lt]

There was a Model T and an MG rally going through the same time I was. The winding roads kept me awake. And when I went down a dirt road through that area I saw one of the largest bucks standing in the road, along side a big turkey.

I think I will come to your house instead.....

[Kartographer]

“The system is more fragile than many believe.”

What Retail Might Look Like at TEOTWAWKI

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3205100/posts

It is a just in time world!

[cuban leaf]

We sometimes get both deer and turkeys milling around in the morning outside our bedroom window. Never at the same time though.

[Kartographer]

What happens if people do place themselves in self imposed quarantine? Who operates the system then?

[Thud]

The person to person transmission rate in major urban areas has not yet been determined, nor has the potential for formite to person transmission.

Your model at this point is confined to rural West Africa.

[Smokin' Joe]

Volunteers at best, it falls apart at worst.

[Pollster1]

I understood the joke (and I was amused). The image just reminded me of something worth pointing out.

[caww]

However....it can’t be dismissed that only twice before has the Security Council met to discuss the security implications of a public health issue – both times on the AIDS epidemic...and now Ebola....all relating to Africa.

[scouter]

The natural rate of epidemic growth varies from country to country. If this model separated the countries, the numbers would be even worse - FAR worse!

I've broken the data down by country for those countries with intense outbreaks.

Guinea

Relative to the other countries, Guinea isn't in that bad of shape. I was able to project out until June 30, 2015 without the numbers getting astronomical.

Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.0 - Ebola Case Projections

*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: Guinea
Run Date/Time: 09/19/2014 at 14:46:33
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 8/1/2014
End Date: 9/14/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 14
Rate of Increase per Day: 1.52%
*********************************************************

Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
09/14/2014                   942                   467                    14                     7
09/21/2014                 1,047                   519                    16                     8
09/28/2014                 1,164                   577                    17                     9
10/05/2014                 1,293                   641                    19                    10
10/12/2014                 1,437                   713                    22                    11
10/19/2014                 1,597                   792                    24                    12
10/26/2014                 1,775                   880                    27                    13
11/02/2014                 1,973                   978                    30                    15


End of Month for the Next 2 Years from the End Date

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
09/30/2014                 1,199                   595                    18                     9
10/31/2014                 1,914                   949                    29                    14
11/30/2014                 3,010                 1,492                    45                    22
12/31/2014                 4,805                 2,382                    72                    36
01/31/2015                 7,671                 3,803                   115                    57
02/28/2015                11,703                 5,802                   175                    87
03/31/2015                18,683                 9,262                   280                   139
04/30/2015                29,378                14,564                   440                   218
05/31/2015                46,897                23,249                   702                   348
06/30/2015                73,743                36,558                 1,104                   547

Liberia

Liberia's got problems. The numbers get so astronomical so quickly that it only made sense to graph the projections out to the end of this year, although I provide the numbers until the end of February. The problem is that the Daily Transmission Rate (DTR) is currently 4.072%. Clearly that's unsustainable, but that's what it is. Something's gotta give soon there.

Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.0 - Ebola Case Projections

*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: Liberia
Run Date/Time: 09/19/2014 at 14:38:12
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 8/1/2014
End Date: 9/14/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 106
Rate of Increase per Day: 4.07%
*********************************************************

Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
09/14/2014                 2,710                   467                   106                    18
09/21/2014                 3,584                   618                   140                    24
09/28/2014                 4,739                   817                   185                    32
10/05/2014                 6,266                 1,080                   245                    42
10/12/2014                 8,286                 1,428                   324                    56
10/19/2014                10,957                 1,888                   429                    74
10/26/2014                14,489                 2,497                   567                    98
11/02/2014                19,159                 3,302                   750                   129


End of Month for the Next 2 Years from the End Date

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
09/30/2014                 5,132                   884                   201                    35
10/31/2014                17,689                 3,048                   692                   119
11/30/2014                58,578                10,094                 2,292                   395
12/31/2014               201,887                34,790                 7,900                 1,361
01/31/2015               695,796               119,903                27,225                 4,692
02/28/2015             2,127,411               366,606                83,242                14,345

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone is worse than Guinea, but not as bad as Liberia. Still, it only mad sent to graph the projections out to the end of April. I provide the numbers, though, through June 30, 2015.

Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.0 - Ebola Case Projections

*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: Sierra Leone
Run Date/Time: 09/19/2014 at 14:50:15
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 8/1/2014
End Date: 9/14/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 36
Rate of Increase per Day: 2.19%
*********************************************************

Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
09/14/2014                 1,673                   467                    36                    10
09/21/2014                 1,946                   543                    42                    12
09/28/2014                 2,265                   632                    48                    14
10/05/2014                 2,635                   735                    56                    16
10/12/2014                 3,065                   856                    66                    18
10/19/2014                 3,566                   996                    76                    21
10/26/2014                 4,149                 1,158                    89                    25
11/02/2014                 4,827                 1,348                   103                    29


End of Month for the Next 2 Years from the End Date

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
09/30/2014                 2,365                   660                    51                    14
10/31/2014                 4,623                 1,290                    99                    28
11/30/2014                 8,845                 2,469                   189                    53
12/31/2014                17,293                 4,827                   370                   103
01/31/2015                33,809                 9,437                   723                   202
02/28/2015                61,947                17,292                 1,325                   370
03/31/2015               121,110                33,807                 2,591                   723
04/30/2015               231,714                64,680                 4,957                 1,384
05/31/2015               453,017               126,455                 9,692                 2,705
06/30/2015               866,733               241,939                18,543                 5,176

[Squeako]

Scouter’s revised Ebola projection bookmark