Has WW3 begun? Thanks, Obama.
March 4, 2014, 9:23 A.M. ET
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Ukraine Trouble? Not Today, So Mr. Market Bounces Back
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By Brendan Conway
Chalk it up to Vladimir Putin’s calm and probably mendacious press conference, or the lack of overt hostilities in Ukraine. Assets with a reputation for risk are rising again Tuesday while reputedly “safe” ones are on the decline, readying to reverse some or all of Monday’s “risk off” trading.
Trackers of the U.S. stock market like SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) look ready for gains of 1% or higher, while Treasury-bond prices are headed lower. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is set to follow gold prices lower by more than 1%.
Monday’s sharpest decliners spent premarket trading readying for a rebound: Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) and iShares Russia MSCI Capped ETF (ERUS) gained 3.8% and 5.1%, ahead of the open.
From the Lindsay Group’s Peter Boockvar:
Repeating what I said yesterday that most geopolitical events are usually fleeting in its market impact, mattering just one day is pretty impressive and this Friday’s 4pm close will be most influenced by the US payroll number than anything else.
Guggenheim’s Chris Krueger lays out one reason financial markets don’t care — they’ve judged the odds of Western military involvement as slim to none:
[O]ther than relatively cosmetic reactions (possible exception of an economic aid package), we do not foresee significant American responses in the near term to the Crimean occupation. For now, the U.S. and NATO have tamped down any expectations of armed intervention. The situation on the ground and the regional geography favor Russia, and there are no military advantages for the West.
Fast traders’ bets on market volatility are slumping, with Barclays iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), ProShares Ultra VIX Short- Term Futures exchange-traded fund (UVXY) and VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN (TVIX) looking ready for drops of 5%-10% or more.
Annoyed to the point of chewing on the carpet? (and for those so inclined - it’s an historical reference and not a sexual one)
Hillary was right. Putin is using the same excuse, ‘protecting ethnic Russians’, to invade and chop out the best parts of Georgia and Ukraine for himself as Hitler did.
It’s funny, because Merkel asked a question, and could probably answer it herself: “Yes, he’s living in a new, better run, petroleum bankrolled Soviet Union.”
The same can be said for American voters and Obama. America isn't called "Obama-land" overseas for nothing. The rest of the world thinks we've lost our bloody minds.
-— Both were said to be in favour of sending an immediate fact finding mission to Ukraine -—
What we really need to do is to send a blue ribbon commission on a fact-finding mission to find its butt with both hands.
“Oh no! Not a fact-finding mission! Anything but that!”
While Angela Merkel said at the weekend that Putin was not in touch with reality, many Russians would disagree. The latest Levada poll conducted from 21-25 February found that most Russians regard the new government in Kiev negatively: 43% called the political upheaval in Ukraine a “violent coup” and 23% called it a civil war.
Moreover, 45% blamed western influence for bringing people on to the streets of Kiev, where the “Euromaidan” protests that were originally in favour of further European integration later turned into a general condemnation of the corrupt regime.
56% of Russians considered Crimea, which Russia seized from the Tatars in the 18th century, to be a part of Russia. The Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave the territory to Ukraine in 1954, but ethnic Russians still make up 59% of Crimea’s population of 2 million, while 12% are Tatars, according to 2001 census data.