Posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:02 PM PST by Steelfish
That can't be good...
Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.
If that is true it is over for Mitt in OH. There is no way the remaining 60% will tilt the other way.
Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and a combination of one or more of OH/PA/WI. If Obama loses Ohio or Pennsylvania Romney will win. Losing Wisconsin isn’t necessarily a deathblow for Hussein, but it would be indicative of bigger problems.
That’s scary!
Or accurate. I believe that the actual early vote percentage in Ohio is more like mid 20’s percentile
It’s not 40%. The Secretary of State website shows that 1.6MM voters have voted. Based on 2008 turnout that’s about 28%.
I thought this state was winnable?
Obama’s early vote totals are way down in Ohio from 2008. Mitt is fine being Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state. Plus, he will carry independents.
It’s very winnable. Dems always try to get the early vote but they are outnumbered. Trust me, Obama will not runaway with this state.
Based on those number Romney needs 59% of the remaining voters to win OH EVs
Its all down now to GOTV in FL, OH, WI, PA, VA.
Romney has a very good shot at being the next President provided these states Vote.
That is what I understood from all I’ve read about early voting in Ohio. Obama does lead in early voting, but his numbers are way down compared to 2008.
Even John McCain won the Election Day vote by 75,000. Mitt will do much better than that.
How do they know what is inside of the votes. Is it by exit polling or do they assume democrat votes turned in will be votes for Obama. Do you think every democrat will vote for Obama?
It’s not 40%. The Secretary of State website shows that 1.6MM voters have voted. Based on 2008 turnout that’s about 28%.
It is my understanding from early and provisional voting, the race for OH is a dead heat. Which means the OH will be won on Election Day with GOTV.
Exactly. Obama’s early vote totals in Ohio are significantly down in Ohio, while Republican numbers are notably higher than 4 years ago. Romney has an excellent chance of winning Ohio. Their own polls show them up by one point and the Republican electorate will be larger than in 2008. Add this to the fact Romney is winning the indy votet by a good margin and common sense tells you who really has more to worry about.
1) Obama was not an incumbant then.
2) There are a lot more government workers now who will vote for Obama.
3) There are a lot more people riding the wagon now than there was 4 years ago. Just look at the food stamp/ disability data now compared to 4 years ago.
Democrats also go for the early vote....nothing new. The real solace is in comparing it to the 2008 numbers. Much different. People just need to get out and vote and the rest will take care of itself!
All I can say is “Come on WI and IA!”.
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