Is Rasmussen using D+3, or D+6?

Self | Oct 29, 2012 | Self

[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

Yes. Republicans historically get 92-93% of their base, while Democrats secure 88-89% of their base. Both Romney (90%) and Obama (86%) are underperforming with their base.

I fear that the Republican percentages are accurate. There are people in the Republican party that simply will not, under any circumstance, vote for a Mormon.

[goldstategop]

There are conservatives that will not vote for a liberal - even if he is Republican.

[Pollster1]

Yeah he did change it to a D+6 model. That irritates me. I think he is scared of showing a romney blowout.

It is not in America's interests to show a Romney blowout at this point. The closer the election looks, the more motivated conservatives we will get to the polls in the Battleground States and in the Obama-leaning states that may still be up for grabs. The closer it looks, the more conservatives will vote in the states with close US Senate races. Throw in the fact that Romney only leads among living, non-fictional voters, while Obama has a huge lead in vote fraud, and this election is not over yet. I'll be working 18 hours straight on election day to do what I can to detect and suppress in-person vote fraud (even though most of their fraud will be absentee this year).

[TheOldLady]

What is this “liberal friends” of which you speak?

[HannibalHamlinJr]

My home is Boston. It's a choice between no friends and liberal friends. They can actually be quite amusing. In Maine, where I spend a lot of time and vote, my next door neighbor is a retired journalist from DC, chair of the town Democratic Party.

If you have liberal friends, then you know how deflated they feel about O's presidency, the sense of betrayal, the almost ... shame at this point. I watched the second debate with 3 of my most liberal neighbors in Maine. Great way to gauge the mood of the other side. Suddenly they are not so interested in politics.

The most important dynamic on a psychological level is that they no longer identify with him, even if they're voting for him. It is as if their professional football team had lost every game in the past 3 seasons ... nobody goes around wearing that team's shirt.

Part of the reason I know this election is going to be around a 7 point win for RR is that I know many liberals. There will be many no shows, and even secret defections inside the booth.

It will be an act of will for them to go vote - they are actually doing something they don't look forward to doing.They are only doing it to avoid the cognitive dissonance that would come with repudiating their bold and blind trust in hope and change. Mitt's surge is matched by an equal and opposite "WTF?" for Obama among liberals.

They are otherwise highly functional, successful and rational people, who become instant childish imbeciles as soon as politics is the subject.

[wintertime]

nobody goes around wearing that team's shirt.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I have just returned from a six week road trip through every state in the Southwest U.S., parts of California, and Texas coast.

I saw **one** Obama yard sign and exactly **two** Obama bumper stickers. The same is true for Romney signs and bumper stickers as well but that can be expected since vandalism is so common against Republicans.

However...There were blizzards of campaign signs along the roads for every imaginable local candidate, so there must be enthusiasm for politics in general. This enthusiasm is not evident, though, in the road signs for the presidential election.

[wintertime]

..DON’T FORGET PRAYER AND FASTING TOMORROW!!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

God will give this nation what it needs, not necessarily what we want.

[TheOldLady]

Your Conservatism must be rock solid to fraternize with liberals. Thanks for taking one for the team.

I’m sure that they’re perfectly fine people, but there must be some insane disconnect between the way that they live their lives and the way that they vote to force us at the point of a government gun to live ours.

[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

If they voted for McCain, they certainly should vote for Mitt.

[stickywillie]

weird...we have to build in the adjustment to see an honest result....an adjustment that is hidden to all but the most nerdishly curious. can’t hang your hat on anything. Wouldn’t it be refreshing to see a pollster who would tell the truth from the beginning, and force the liberal pollsters to do the same, or look like the fools that they are? Keeping it a horse race must be so profitable, that they can’t resist keeping it close, until the houra approaching election day. It’s pathetic to watch them adjust to reality these last few days.

[stickywillie]

“This is going to be an electoral and popular vote landslide”.....if you want to start an argument w/me, you’re gonna have to change the subject, but don’t get cocky about it!

[stickywillie]

if they are 0bama supporters, they are not your friends, if you are who you present yourself as. as it’s been said for years: “with friends like that, who needs enemies”. i’d rather live as a hermit.

[stickywillie]

if they are 0bama supporters, they are not your friends, if you are who you present yourself as. as it’s been said for years: “with friends like that, who needs enemies”. i’d rather live as a hermit.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

With cities like Boston, who can have friends but liberals.

If you're immune to the hypnosis, you merely see that in a corner of their lives, (granted, a very important one) they are hypnotized, they shut off critical thought and instinct.

I'm immune, because i relate directly to the world and I'm rational. It's not that difficult.

If you're that way, it's actually the reverse. The more you listen to them, the more immune you are. They are not tricky, nor is there a lulling effect. Love the voter, hate the sin.

Besides, if you're not their friends - who's going to wake them up? Who's going to tell them for 6 months Obama will lose big time, and let them laugh in your face? Some will take pause when reality mugs them this Nov 7. I have fed them 14,000 facts, statistics, cogent arguments, economic theory, historical realities, why 'it's HER body' is a red herring. Liberals are sheep - part of the flock this election is turning direction. Some will move, if only slightly. If you only talk to conservatives, how are you helping the situation? An Echo chamber spreads not truth. That's why there were and are missionaries.

Don't give me Hell for fighting in the belly of the beast. I'm a spy and an operative for the good guys, and I can't be turned, and in a world with a constant pressure pushing it to hell, liberals provide bit of tragic comedy. Conservatism is not a philosophy but a clear eyed view of reality and what works. Liberalism is a philosophy. No intellectual philosophy can trump what's in front of your face unless you're willing. (Intellectual Philosophy is in fact Satan's most effective means of deceiving even the good.)

Got any friends who don't believe in God? Haven't accepted Jesus? Hate 'em? Afraid to be around them? Of course not, it's your place to help, and if you're grounded, there is no threat and they are not your enemies. The ideas are the enemy, the dust covering their eyes, their hypnosis is the enemy. Well, it's the same with liberals. 96% know not what they do, the rest are evil.

Come November 7, about 35 people I know in Massachusetts will wake up with a devastating political hangover, pain opens people's minds, and the first thing that comes to mind will be that some idiotic conservative guy spelled it out to them in detail 10 times despite their laughing and mocking. They will find no difference in what I've told them for a long time, and the reality on Nov. 7.

So maybe 1 will secretly reconsider, the rest will just put the pedal to the hate metal, but I will have at least entertained myself during 4 of the darkest and threatening years this country has ever known.

So it's all good.

:-) - all in fun, my friend, but all true.

[kara37]

Um hows about the Wisconsin recall, or Scott Brown in Mass.
Both of these polls were 8 and 6 points out of whack on election day.

I don’t know what polls you have seen, but RCP could not have been any closer on the Walker recall.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_recall_election_walker_vs_barrett-3056.html

[CA Conservative]

Also, a 3 point jump from D+3 to D+6 would cost Romney nearly 3 points in the tracking poll over a 3 day period. We saw no such jump. So I’m sticking to the D+3 theory.

I disagree that there was "no such jump". Over the last week, we saw the Rasmussen poll take the following path:

Romney - Obama
50 46 Tuesday
50 46 Wednesday
50 47 Thursday
50 46 Friday
50 46 Saturday
50 47 Sunday
49 47 Monday
49 47 Tuesday

So since Saturday, we have seen Obama go up and Romney go down. Now it may just be a good Obama polling day was in there. However, that much of a move could also be the result of a 3% change in party identification starting at about Saturday.

[InterceptPoint]

So since Saturday, we have seen Obama go up and Romney go down. Now it may just be a good Obama polling day was in there. However, that much of a move could also be the result of a 3% change in party identification starting at about Saturday.

Hmmmmmm.

You could be right. The math is correct. But ...

We have it on pretty darn good authority that it's still D+3 (Rasmussen Subscriber). And, the D+6 rumor started well over a week ago so it would have had to change the Raz numbers much sooner if it was in place say 10 days ago.

[stickywillie]

I love your spirit, and your patience. I’m 64 and it’s been my experience that liberals can not be changed, and talking to them only redefines their idiocy, and brings it to my attention, yet again. Having said that, I’ve told several people that it’s going to be a Romney Landslide, and they just can’t have it. Had one just this afternoon. I can hardly wait for November 6th. Rush can barely contain himself.