Barring Some Sudden Change, Romney Will Win the Popular Vote

National Review ^ | 10/26/2012 | Jim Geraghty

[Vaquero]

Barring Some Sudden Change, Romney Will Win the Popular Vote.

My leftist voting brother told me this in glee thinking zer0bama was going to pull a GW Bush first election, and retain the _residency. I think it will be more like Reagan's elections ( take your pick).

[Straight Vermonter]

I’m in Vermont where Obumbles was hailed as the messiah 4 years ago. I see cars with Obama 08 stickers but I have only seen 2 Obama 12 stickers.

[MacMattico]

Embarrassed as I am by my home state of NY, the last poll I saw was Obama up by 28%. If Romney were to win the popular vote, and states like NY and MA are going huge for O, Romney would have to pick up those votes in a lot of swing states, no?

[rfp1234]

I agree it's an unlikely scenario, but just suppose R wins the popular vote and O wins the electoral vote. Then, soon after the election, all heck breaks loose with Benghazi whistleblowers, and O is exposed (at best) as a liar.

Rather than risking a scandal-crippled presidency, couldn't some of the Ohio electors be convinced to switch their vote to Romney, particularly if he lost Ohio by a razor-thin margin? They could argue quite powerfully that the voters were grossly misled by O (and the MSM).

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Actually, California, New York, Vermont, New Jersey, North Carolina, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Pennsylvania and Illinois have entered into an interstate compact, and have provided by legislation, that their electors MUST vote for the winner of the popular vote.

Now, the interstate compact, not being approved by Congress, is invalid on its face (article I s.10), but the state laws are not only valild, but implicate the sole power of State Legislatures to govern the chusing of Electors (Article II s.1).

THEREFORE, according to the methods determined by the sovereign legislatures of New York, California, and the rest, if Romney/Ryan win the NPV those blue, blue states are REQUIRED, by the perfectly Constitutional powers their legislatures have ALREADY CHOSEN TO EXERCISE, to award 172 Electoral votes to Mssrs. Romney and Ryan.

Now of those states, North Carolina is the only one not reliably “blue.” But it is considered a must-win for Romney, so if Obama were to win the popular vote and nominally lose in the EC, there would be a case brought in NC state court that NC must throw the election to Obama. THAT wouldn’t be funny at all.

But if the shoe were on the other foot, as you say there would be a gazillion ECV’sat stake for Romney to try for in CA, NY, IL, and so forth. Not to mention DC, which has EV’s but not actual statehood . . .

Were Romney to narrowly win the popular vote and sue in state courts for enough EV’s to win the EC, it would indeed be interesting times.

Let’s just win outright. Then sue for the extra EV’s just to clarify the law.

[Jim Noble]

Let’s just win outright. Then sue for the extra EV’s just to clarify the law.

The enactment (it's not a law) does not require clarification. It is perfectly clear.

California's legislature has complete sovereign authority to determine how California's 55 electors are to be chosen. They have done so.

California's 55 electors are to go to the winner of the national popular vote. That's all. It's clear.

No lawsuits, no courts (courts should have nothing to do with elections).

If Romney and Ryan have more votes than Obama and Biden, the selection procedure specified by the enactment of the California legislature (it's not a law-the Governor has no role) will dictate 55 evs for Romney and Ryan - that's all.

What? You believe they would try to get out of it?

Cynic.

[RayChuang88]

I think right now we are headed towards Romney winning the election with somewhere between 330 and 360 electoral votes. It will be a HUGE rejection of Obama's policies by the flyover country crowd.