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IBD Daily poll +5.7% Obama (but was only 1.7% yesterday)![Dem +7%]
IBD/TIPP ^
| 10/21/12
| IBD/TIPP
Posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:32 AM PDT by Siegfried X
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To: SoftwareEngineer
John McCain got 47% of the nationwide popular vote in 2008. I can’t where Romney got less than that if he was losing.
The state of the race is such that now its effectively his to lose. When you look like the winner, people’s expectations shift accordingly.
41
posted on
10/21/2012 11:48:58 AM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: Lacey2
“Attempt to cancel Gallup Poll effect on RCP avg of polls.”
Exactly.
42
posted on
10/21/2012 12:03:24 PM PDT
by
flaglady47
(When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
To: Siegfried X
This is funny stuff! Obama wins the MALE vote by 1 point! I pretty much stopped reading there.
To: Siegfried X
The margin of error is due to the small sample size.
When the candidates are more than that much apart, the poll is essentially meaningless.
Averaging uncertainty gives more uncertainty, not better numbers.
What matters is how many normal people get out and vote.
To: Signalman
Not neccesarily. Not considering the +/- 3.5% margin of error. And the fact that this is a close election (well closer than the last one) also tends to cause some fluctuation.
Its not over yet.
45
posted on
10/21/2012 12:49:11 PM PDT
by
Vanders9
To: I want the USA back
What matters is how many normal people get out and vote. It also depends on how many abnormal people get out and vote too. And how many illegals. And how many "rise from the dead". You know, there's lots of tricks and the dems know them all.
46
posted on
10/21/2012 12:51:32 PM PDT
by
Vanders9
To: Siegfried X
Polling period: 10/15 - 10/20 Margin of Error: +/- 3.5% Sample Size: 913 likely voters (identified from 1044 registered voters with party affiliation of 37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind.) Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz29y7ZbTPX 7 point Dem oversample, garbage poll.
47
posted on
10/21/2012 1:51:24 PM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
To: Siegfried X
Rational sample +3 Dems would put this 46 R, 43 O which would match up pretty closely to Rasmussen.
48
posted on
10/21/2012 1:53:14 PM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
To: Lacey2
To: bunster
We hit the tipping point about 15 years ago ~ there is no way this method can recover.
50
posted on
10/21/2012 3:01:11 PM PDT
by
muawiyah
To: Revolting cat!
The problem is you have to call well over 9,000 people to get 1,000 ~ then caller ID negates the randomness of the calls ~ a small special interest group like homosexuals (GBLT) can pledge to ALWAYS answer pollster calls and they will end up appearing to be 10X their actual number!
51
posted on
10/21/2012 3:03:41 PM PDT
by
muawiyah
To: MNJohnnie
This shouldn't match no matter how it's weighed. Here's the most telling data from this poll...
IDEOLOGY
Conservative
Obama Romney Not Sure
22% 69% 7%
I'm the most pessimistic person here but this doesn't seem right...
52
posted on
10/21/2012 3:12:17 PM PDT
by
paul544
To: Siegfried X
Wait a minute. A 6 day tracking poll goes from 1.7 to 5.7 in a day? If it’s a pure average of the 6 days - doesn’t that indicate a 24 point swing in one day?
What am I missing here?
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