Mitt Romney likely victory indicated by QStarNews swing state poll

examiner.com ^ | October 4, 2012 | Dean Chambers

[Ron C.]

NOTE - this poll was completed BEFORE the first debate which Romney resoundingly won.

Here is a quick wrap-up of the poll from the article:

ROMNEY WINNING:

COLORADO       - Romney/Ryan 49.92 - Obama/Biden 49.68 lead =   .24

Florida        - Romney/Ryan 50.57 - Obama/Biden 48.55 lead =  2.02

Michigan       - Romney/Ryan 47.97 - Obama/Biden 45.67 lead =  2.30

Nevada         - Romney/Ryan 55.83 - Obama/Biden 44.73 lead = 11.10

New Hampshire  - Romney/Ryan 47.83 - Obama/Biden 47.54 lead =   .29

North Carolina - Romney/Ryan 49.44 - Obama/Biden 49.03 lead =   .41

Virginia       - Romney/Ryan 50.39 - Obama/Biden 47.45 lead =  2.94

OBAMA WINNING:

Ohio           - Obama/Biden 54.46 - Romney/Ryan 43.01 lead = 11.45

Pennsylvania   - Obama/Biden 51.52 - Romney/Ryan 46.80 lead =  4.72

Iowa           - Obama/Biden 57.51 - Romney/Ryan 41.81 lead = 15.70

Wisconsin      - Obama/Biden 55.21 - Romney/Ryan 43.45 lead = 11.76

Yes it's a tight race, with massive fraud and continuous media assault - BUT WE CAN OVERCOME THAT!

I believe Romney can win Pennsylvania!

IF... ALL of us do what we can to support the conservative effort - WE WILL DEFEAT THAT JACKASS OBAMA!

[SoFloFreeper]

So what is this in terms of electors? How is Romney winning?

[Ron C.]

ONE MORE THING - we must all dig deep and SUPPORT FReerepublic.com - DONATE ASAP!

[kitkat]

BUMP

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

If those were to hold true, Romney would win the Presidency by 273 to 265 EC votes.

[Shadow44]

They Obama winning Ohio? That really doesn’t mesh well with the data from early voting, especially by such a large margin.

[StAnDeliver]

Wow that NV measure is freaky good...if that's not an outlier Romney wins for fun.

But I question the poll on its face, given there's no way IA is foregone Obama. If anything Romney is even or better there...BUT I will take this as reason to restore my original tag...

[Dave346]

They have Romney up 283 to 255.

They are giving Romney 75% of undecided votes.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

ALL of us do what we can to support the conservative Republican effort

There, fixed it.

[Ron C.]

"So what is this in terms of electors?"

Romney 90 electors - if he indeed wins these state.

If Obama wins all of the states he is ahead in, he gets 58 electors.

So Romney is ahead by 32 electors... if he indeed wins the states this poll shows him ahead in. But I don't believe he will win New Hampshire.

But, I think Obama just may lose Pennsylvania... from what I'm hearing/reading.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Sorry, miscounted. 283 to 255.

[Ron C.]

Thanks for your number crunching! I hope it turns out that way, and a bit more.

[PAR]

Biden is a very accomplished liar (see his debate performance against Palin in 08).

Lot riding on Ryan next week. No question he will do well, but he must be able to tactfully and unequivocally rebut lies, preferably with data.

Romney came up with a nice rebuttal to the $5 trillion unpaid tax plan today, but an even better rebuttal would be the following. When it is clear that Biden/Obama is lying, say simply “You know, he is saying one thing and I’m saying another. How would a rational person reconcile these conflicting versions of reality? Well, the gold standard today in science is typically data in the form of academic studies. Yes, these can be difficult to comprehend, but let me tell you that the existing academic evidence is x....”

The problem is that Biden/Obama can lie their heads off and the MSM is not going to call them on it. I wouldn’t want to be in a position where it becomes a popularity contest, therefore I would want to be able to appeal to data.

An example is Romney’s tax cuts. He mentioned during the debate that lowering tax rates encourages investment and increases the tax base. Well that is exactly what the data shows. He should have pointed out that when the Bush tax cuts were fully implemented in 2003 that tax revenues actually went UP! He should also have pointed out that the democrats’ ridiculous claims assume no change in behavior when tax rates are reduced and that the academic evidence shows that this NEVER happens.

Yes you might appear wonky, but give us the damn data and put them in their place.

[Ron C.]

They Obama winning Ohio?

I hope Ohio proves to be a bad poll - because I think that number is off too.

If Ohio goes for Romney THAT would be a huge wipe-out!

[Conscience of a Conservative]

These are based on a web-based poll that is linked to unskewedpolls.com, which likely has a right-leaning readership. Moreover, the sample sizes are tiny, so the margins of error are huge. I wouldn’t read anything into these polls...

[Ron C.]

GREAT POINT Par!

[Fresh Wind]

That poll shows Obama doing significantly better in Ohio and Iowa in 2012 than in 2008.

Ain’t gonna happen that way.

[Ron C.]

Very true what you said. I'm sure they are hit by bogus respondents that do what they can to mess up the polls. But, many of them leave a track behind that can be read, and discounted.

Even small net samples tell a story that you don't get via phone calls to known party members. Try taking their polls again - you'll be blocked. Yeah, you could go to another computer and do it, but how many will take the time.

[Ron C.]

I neglected this:

They said this... "The poll included 2737 likely voters from those 11 states and had a margin of error of 1.87 percent."

I'll have to ask how they came up with that number... I'll wager it's pretty close.

[jimsin]

PRESIDENT MITT VICE PRESIDENT RYAN