Posted on 09/27/2012 7:05:36 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Well, you are most welcome to your opinion, and far be it from me to give self proclaimed experts any more credence than they deserve...
I don’t claim to be an ‘expert’, but I did get formal training and have worked professionally in the field, and thus at least as qualified as most people to comment, with all due respect :-)
My point is only that the reality is more akin to marketing research than the polls you and I see... the polls most likley to be accurate those that are used to guide the allocation of assets (as opposed to predicting who will win), are usually very propriatary and are considered to be accurate by the people who matter (the candidates and their staffs) by dint of the fact that the people who create them are paid to do so. You can disagree or disparage all day, but it’s the same combination of “scientific” measuring and ‘mojo’(interpetation) that every company from Ford to Johnson and Johnson do.
Unless you consider every company that pays for market research to be stupid for doing so.
And sampling theory is not really ‘complex’, 8th grade math at most; my point was only that it is sort of counter intuitive but verifiable that it CAN be accurate.
I guess by comparing their polling percentages with the actual election results.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.