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Posted on 02/06/2012 6:59:48 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Calm down a bit and quote where I said Casey's name got him 18 points.
Now calm down a little more and do some math:
Let's assume 3-5 points as Bob Casey's son and namesake
plus 5 points from Santorum's base from being supposedly pro-life and pro-gun
plus 5-8 points from running in a landslide year for Democrats instead of a neutral year
That's 13-21 points in rough terms, conservatively.
Now, absent all those factors, would Santorum have lost his bid for a 3rd Senate term in a lean-Democrat state? Maybe. Maybe not. Certainly he would have had a better chance if he was perfect, which of course he is not.
If you are arguing that Santorum is not the most conservative or most electable candidate Republicans could choose to nominate for President, I don't know who would take the other side. I can think of dozens of politicians who would be better, not to mention private citizens.
But to try to tear Santorum down when he and Newt Gingrich are the only options currently available that bear a passing resemblance to conservatives ... that is quite another matter.
13-18 points ... I had a 5-8 spread for pro-life, pro-gun but I'm erring further on the side of conservatism.
It’s not just “ugly butch feminazis” who support the right to abort. You might be surprised to learn how many normal looking, middle class women, married with families, fall into that category.
Some years ago we had a fairly ho-hum gubernatorial election in VA. The only thing interesting about the race was that the Dem was African-American. That is, until NARAL, WaPo, and others made an issue of the Republican’s pro-life position. I was working at the polls on that election day, and was stunned at how many of those nice, white, educated, middle class wives and mothers showed up to support the pro-choice Dem. When the doors closed at 7pm, there was a long line inside the building, almost all women, waiting to vote. Not one left until she had voted. The Dem won the election.
All it would take in a presidential election is for ‘swing states’ women to show up in droves to vote for whoever would preserve their right to abort. And, you can bet your bottom dollar with that as the top issue for which Santorum is known, that is exactly what will be focused on in the run up to the election.
I don’t think it’s quite accurate to say “Ordinary, faithful, conservative women” won’t vote for Newt just because your wife won’t! There are plenty of “Ordinary, faithful, conservative women” on this board who are quite vocally supportive of Newt, who happens also to be pro-life, but has a more diverse portfolio on issues. Your one-woman poll doesn’t work in presidential elections.
He ought to go back to chasing ambulances, or at least running for Senate in his own state.
Oh that's right, he couldn't win reelection in Pennsylvania, so figured running for POTUS was in order.
And they call Ron Paul a nut.
Sorry but the women on this board are not refective of any demographic other than the women on this board. This place is a great big echo chamber. We don't really discuss anything anymore. We log in and echo each other's opinions unless we don't...then we likely get called names, insulted and someteimes zotted. I'm afraid that my wife and her lady friends...many of whom are republican and voted against Doug Wilder...are more reflective of American women in general and Newt's in trouble with that demographic.
Your a real piece of work skippy. So is the human anus.
I should also mention that I don't believe any candidate's position on abortion is going to have much effect on this election. This election is about jobs and the economy. Period.
NOt sure I agree with you. My wife would prefer Santorum, but will absolutely vote Newt over Romney. And if Newt is ahead coming into our PA primary, she has told me she would vote for Newt over Santorum.
In my opinion, Santorum has a much bigger problem with the northeastern Republicans because they perceive him as overly religious. He scares a lot of Rockefeller types in a way that Gingrich doesn't. Just my opinion living here on the East coast. And mainline Republicans are a demographic not seen here on FR either but I live among them.
Mainline Republicans might vote Gingrich in the general but it's unlikely they'll vote Santorum (particularly the mainline registered Republican women who tend to be baby killing sympathizers).
Polling doesn’t support that thesis. Santorum polls better among all demo’s than Newt especially when responants are asked to name their second choice candiodate.
Neither Newt nor Santorum would carry the ‘women’ vote, barring some unforeseen event. Neither the women on this board nor your wife and her friends represent the majority of women in America. Those are both no more than anecdotal evidence of a point of view. Your saying that ‘many’ of your wife’s friends are Republican and didn’t vote for Wilder proves the point, does it not? Wilder won! The women I know who are R didn’t vote for Wilder, either. So what?
In the larger context, how ‘women’ vote or are polled nationally doesn’t mean a thing. All the Dems have to do to win is focus on suburban women in a few swing states.
That’s true. Republican’s NEVER carry the women’s vote but in Newt’s instance the gender gap will be an absolute chasm.
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