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Obama's (Very Difficult) Five Paths to Re-Election
Real Clear Politics ^ | December 14, 2011 | Sean Trende

Posted on 12/14/2011 12:19:04 PM PST by neverdem

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A President seeking a second term should be looking for a mandate. Announcing this strategy reeks of desperation.

The chart is from the regular first webpage. I linked the printer friendly page.

1 posted on 12/14/2011 12:19:10 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

What about the illegal alien and voter fraud path? Which one is that?


2 posted on 12/14/2011 12:20:56 PM PST by PapaNew
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To: neverdem

None of those paths are possible at this time.


3 posted on 12/14/2011 12:21:21 PM PST by Peter from Rutland
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To: neverdem
This omits the most likely path, the SEIU/ACORN path:

Obama 2012 voters pictured above.

4 posted on 12/14/2011 12:23:39 PM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: neverdem
Two things: The Vote Fraud will be RAMPANT in WI, and the illegal vote in NM is over-whelming.

We will be stuck with The Messiah in 2012-2016 if Romney-the-RINO is the Nominee. Vote Fraud in OH will also be at record levels, I'm sure.

The Unions will assure multi-votes, and ACORN will assist.

5 posted on 12/14/2011 12:27:24 PM PST by traditional1 (Free speech for me.....not for thee)
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To: Pollster1

They are testing the methods of voter fraud in Wisconsin, right now:
“WISN reports that the Government Accountability Board will only check the addresses and dates that accompany the signatures. It will “flag” names that seem suspicious — e.g. Mickey Mouse — but “will not strike them without challenge.” To initiate a recall election, there will need to be 540,208 valid signatures, so significantly more than that will probably be submitted.”
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/12/impossible-task-of-verifying-signatures.html


6 posted on 12/14/2011 12:29:42 PM PST by radioone ("2012 can't come soon enough")
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To: traditional1

Co-worker of mine was telling me last night that he felt Obama couldn’t win—the electoral votes he got from certain states won’t be there this time. I said I hope he’s right though I wonder if people who don’t agree with whom the GOP nominee is, stay home, vote third party, etc. Yes you can be ideologically pure and not vote for a “RINO”. And get four more years of Obama.

—2000: AlGore misses out, barely...had he won his home state of Tenn. it would have put him over the top. The focus was on Florida but what can you say about a guy who can’t win his home state? President Gore...imagine.

—2004: Thank you Ohio. Rush played “My City was Gone”
by the Pretenders, aka his theme song (written about
Chrissie Hynde’s hometown of Akron). “Uh-ha-hey ho,
way to go, Ohio” President Kerry...imagine.

What if Obama can’t win states like PA or OH this time
around?

But yeah, just stay home, let the RINO Gingrich or the
RINO Romney lose and enjoy four more years of the Messiah.

Vote fraud will indeed be rampant. Illegals.

No matter who gets the nomination, if conservatives/
Republicans stay home, we get Obama again. Though maybe independents will make a difference (Keep in mind
btw that many independents get to vote in GOP primaries.
They can hand the nomination to a McCain or a Romney or
a Gingrich. They also could vote for the GOP in the final
election. The independents went Dem in ‘08. This time...?


7 posted on 12/14/2011 12:39:29 PM PST by raccoonradio
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To: neverdem
Obama's Five Pillars to Re-Election

There, must take into account faith-based campaigning.

8 posted on 12/14/2011 12:43:30 PM PST by Old Sarge (RIP FReeper Skyraider (1930-2011) - You Are Missed)
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To: PapaNew

>>>What about the illegal alien and voter fraud path? Which one is that?<<<

Indeed. I expect the Democrats to attempt fraud on a massive scale, and I expect the media to be their accomplices. The Chicago way is about to become the American way. God help us.


9 posted on 12/14/2011 12:49:22 PM PST by redpoll
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To: neverdem
An earlier thread on the 5 paths: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2820144/posts
10 posted on 12/14/2011 12:49:54 PM PST by matt1234 (Bring back the HUAC.)
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To: neverdem
No RAT has won Ohio and lost Pennsylvania since Harry Truman in 1948. At the time, the GOP candidate was Tom Dewey from neighboring New York.

Nobody has lost two of these three key swing states and won the election since Grover Cleveland managed the feat in 1892: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. And, at the time, Florida wasn't even considered a swing state.

11 posted on 12/14/2011 12:51:56 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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Correction: No RAT has won Ohio, lost Pennsylvania and still managed to win the election since Harry Truman in 1948
12 posted on 12/14/2011 12:55:11 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: neverdem

they left out the “winning on a thin plurality over a field comprised of Romney, Trump, Paul, Huntsman and somebody representing the Tea Party” path.


13 posted on 12/14/2011 1:05:17 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: traditional1

Common, there has to some bona-fide legal organization that can successfully file RICO charges or something similar against the corrupt ACORN causing the organization to be restrained or cease and desist or disband altogether. I thought this was already under way.


14 posted on 12/14/2011 1:08:47 PM PST by PapaNew
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To: PapaNew
...there has to some bona-fide legal organization that can successfully file RICO charges or something similar against the corrupt ACORN...

There is. It's called the U.S. Department of Justice.

I think the chances of AG Eric Holder filing RICO charges against ACORN are somewhere between slim and none with slim having just left town.

15 posted on 12/14/2011 1:18:03 PM PST by WayneS (Comments now include 25 percent more sarcasm for no additional charge...)
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To: matt1234

Thanks for the link.


16 posted on 12/14/2011 1:40:11 PM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

These people have gone to the Nancy Pelosi School of Election Predicting (”I will still be Speaker of the House”).

These five separate paths are all based on the same shaky assumption: ALL THE KERRY STATES. Miss that assumption by one state, and Obama is gone.


17 posted on 12/14/2011 2:00:55 PM PST by 2nd Bn, 11th Mar (The "p" in Democrat stands for patriotism.)
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To: neverdem

Why it is that Kerry State-based paths remind me of something that is:

red
dropped off a meatball
never washed out
left a stain on my shirt


18 posted on 12/14/2011 2:05:10 PM PST by rod1
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To: neverdem

Known in ancient eastern mythology as the “path of a thousand ketchup tears”


19 posted on 12/14/2011 2:07:40 PM PST by rod1
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Gop appoints Dole, loses.

GOP appoints McCain, loses.

GOP appoints Newt, same story different year.


20 posted on 12/14/2011 2:24:42 PM PST by BenKenobi (Honkeys for Herman! 10 percent is enough for God; 9 percent is enough for government)
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