counts:
1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent
He gets 1, 2 and 4. The rest are losers for O. He may face a challenge; there is always a 3rd party; social unrest is at a fervent pitch; scandals occur daily; Bin Laden was a Bush achievement; Sarah is the meaning of charisma.
We will see. I am ready to vote right now.