Discussing Presidential election politics has become very tricky on Free Republic since, especially with the Palin supporters, the discussion tends to be emotion driven rather than data driven. When any poll other than a FOX News poll is posted, it is dismissed as being a liberal poll. When I have quoted the most recent (February) FOX News poll, it was dismissed as being “old data”.
Well, here it is, folks. The latest FOX News comprehensive Presidential election poll, conducted every six months, was released yesterday evening:
Unless your aim is simply to get your favorite candidate nominated by the GOP, regardless of the consequences to America, the ultimate goal should be to nominate the most conservative candidate possible that actually has a good chance of defeating Barack Obama in November 2012. As such, the question that asks voter if they believe that Candidate X would be a good President or not is a crucial indicator of electability. In the latest August 2011 comprehensive FOX News poll, the candidates stack up as follows, with comparisons to the previous February FOX News poll:
FOX News Poll: (August 7-9, 2011)
22. – 31. I’m going to read you a list of names -- for each one please tell me if you think that person would make a good president or not. If you have never heard of a person, please just say so.
...............................YES........NO..........DK.....Never heard of
Mitt Romney
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........34%.......45%.........12%.......9%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............33%........45%.........8%........13%
Michele Bachmann
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........22%.......50%.........11%.......16%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............10%........39%.........11%........41%
Ron Paul
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........22%.......48%.........14%.......16%
Sarah Palin
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........19%.......75%..........4%........1%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............23%........72%..........4%.........1%
Rick Perry
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........19%.......37%.........14%.......30%
Newt Gingrich
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........15%.......69%..........9%........7%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............23%........60%..........7%........10%
Tim Pawlenty
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........14%.......38%.........15%.......33%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............13%........30%.........12%........45%
Herman Cain
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........13%.......33%.........13%.......41%
Rick Santorum
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........10%.......35%.........15%.......39%
..7-9 Feb 11 .............9%........32%.........13%........46%
Jon Huntsman
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........10%.......31%.........19%.......41%
..7-9 Feb 11 .............6%........27%.........12%........55%
As can be seen, although Sarah Palin’s polling data was absolutely toxic in the February, with 72% of all voters believing she would not be a good President, it is even more toxic now, in August, with 75% of all voters believing she would not be a good President . The full comparison between the February Palin polling data and the August Palin polling data is shown below.
Some candidates, such as Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are still unknown to a large percentage of voters and have room for potential improvement. Michele Bachmann was such a candidate in February but, since then, the percentage of voters who have never heard of her has dropped from 41% to 16% and her “Believe would not be a good President” percentage has increased from 39% to 50%.
By contrast the number of all voters that have not heard of Sarah Palin is a miniscule 1% and the percentage of voters that have no opinion of her is only 4%. Everybody that is not living under a rock has already formed an opinion of Sarah Palin. The Sarah Palin concrete has already set.
Of all the GOP actual or potential candidates, Sarah Palin combines the highest name recognition factor by far with the most negative polling data by far. If the intention is to actually get elected President, and not merely to be nominated as the sacrificial lamb for a ceremonial gutting by Obama in November of 2012, that is the worst possible combination. Only Newt Gingrich comes close to that toxic combination.
Sarah Palin may be a lot of things but she is not dumb. She realizes that any entry into the Presidential race will result in a highly embarrassing failed campaign that, if it is ever seriously conducted, can leave a candidate deep in personal debt as was the case with Hillary Clinton. Most seriously, though, an actual GOP nomination of Sarah Palin would guarantee the reelection of Barack Obama and Sarah Palin is too much of a patriot to temp her supporters to blunder into such a disaster. I believe that Sarah Palin has rationally examined the polling data that has been out there all along and, for personal and patriotic reasons, will settle for the role of alleged “Kingmaker” by endorsing another candidate rather than experience the certain failure of a campaign.
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FEBRUARY 2011 COMPREHENSIVE FOX NEWS POLL:
FOX News Poll (February 7-9, 2011)
Question 3: I am going to read you a list of names. Tell me if you think that person would make a good President or not.
Sarah Palin:
.................YES.........NO.......DK.....Never heard of
ALL...........23%.......72%.........4%.......1%
Dem ...........7%........87%........5%.......1%
Rep ...........40%.......56%.......3%.......1%
Ind ...........25%........69%.......3%.......1%
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AUGUST 2011 COMPREHENSIVE FOX NEWS POLL:
FOX News Poll: (August 7-9, 2011)
Question 25. Sarah Palin - Do you think this person would make a good president or not?
.................YES.........NO.......DK.....Never heard of
ALL...........19%.......75%.........4%.......1%
Dem ...........7%........89%........3%.......1%
Rep ...........34%.......58%.......7%.......1%
Ind ...........20%........74%.......5%.......1%
Not sure why people think she can't win!