Posted on 09/21/2010 8:26:35 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
Weird that you would say that.
Which one of those states do we reliably win for president every election? Which ones do we not? Wouldn’t it be more unusual for us to win the others than WV?
that # is a month old
I don’t know what frequency they poll at, but I can’t wait to see it.
Why wouln't a conservative, anti-Obama state have strong conservative turnout?
OH MY GOD!!!! I hate to say “see I told you so” but as I have said here on FR, Raese has a shot at beating Manchin, despite the Democrat Governor’s overall popularity, which is somwhere close to 70%. In this political climate, no “lead” by the Dems is safe. I’m not guaranteeing a Raese victory but I had a feeling he would do very well, win or lose. Months ago, the Manchin people were quietly thinking they would walk to a 20-30 point win as Byrd had done countless times. With Obama’s 29% approval rating in West Virginia and with Manchin being too closely tied to the present administration and its policies I knew the GOP might have a shot at an upset here. It’s not over but it’s looking better and better for Raese and his campaign.
With leaners:
Manchin 50, Raese 43
Without leaners:
Manchin 47, Raese 42
Very close to the PPP result released today.
Quoting the PPP report (sorry for the spacing, was cut from PDF.)
Raleigh, N.C. – If the election were held today, Robert Byrd’s U.S. Senate seat from
West Virginia would be held by a Republican and someone other than Byrd for the first
time in 52 years. Though Governor Joe Manchin is still very popular, with a stellar 59-32
approval rating, second among those PPP has measured this year to Louisiana’s Bobby
Jindal, he is trailing Republican opponent John Raese, 43-46, among likely voters.
West Virginia is still a Democratic state by registration, Democrats representing 51% of
the projected electorate to Republicans’ 37%, but they are conservative Democrats who
increasingly vote Republican in federal elections. Like Kentucky and a lot of Appalachia
and the South with histories of Democratic governors, Mountain State voters still often
separate their votes for state officials from those for federal politicians. This traditional
vote division is exacerbated by a 10-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap. John McCain
won the state by 13 points in 2008, but West Virginians who plan to vote this year report
casting ballots for McCain by 23 points over President Obama—a 10-point enthusiasm
gap compared to the electorate two years ago. If the same internals were still true and
this race had been run in 2008, Manchin would be ahead roughly 50-44.
Because of the conservatism of the Democrats—34% of whom think the party is too
liberal—Raese gets 23% of them, to Manchin’s 14% of the GOP, and Raese wins
independents by a 56-30 margin.
If Manchin’s popularity as chief executive cannot help him get elected to higher office,
there is no doubt the potential that Manchin will vote for Obama’s agenda is weighing on
the minds of West Virginia voters. Obama has a 30-64 approval rating in the state.
Luckily for Manchin, he can hang his candidacy on Byrd’s memory. Voters approve of
the work Byrd did, 68-23, and want his legacy carried on by his replacement, 52-33.
“Trust me, money will be spent on this very winnable race regardless of this poll.”
John Raese is a wealthy businessman and owns a statewide radio network called WV MetroNews. He is spending money and flooding the state’s TV and radio airwaves with his political ads. It looks like it is working, but sure, he could still use some more donations.
Your link to twitter.com doesn’t provide anything about this race.
http://twitter.com/HotlineJosh
“PPP: Prime GOP pickup opportunity in West Virginia. Raese 46, Manchin 43.”
The poll will be released tomorrow:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/were-going-to-have-our-first-look-out.html
Rasmussen yesterday gave the Dem a small lead: 50-43 with leaners, 47-42 without leaners:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/west_virginia/election_2010_west_virginia_senate_special_election
That's about the lowest in the nation, no?
This one in WV is close. I think if the Repub can make the election about Obama then he can pull it off.
Only state with worse #’s for Barky than WV is WY.
And this is why I didn’t mourn the liberal Republican who they wanted to run declining. WV leans conservative in the last presidential elections. They lean conservative in their personal lives. They just haven’t voted conservative at a state level out of tradition, and in past had a strong appetite for pork. But in a wave election a decent conservative candidate should theoretically have a good chance even against a popular Democrat.
This is the race I have wanted the GOP to fight for, maybe now they will.
I wouldn’t be so sure if this is a diversion by PPP. PPP also found Ron Johnson ahead of Feingold in the WI Senate race by double digits. The RNC is definitely going to have a financial presence in this race.
Obama has a more than 70% disapproval rating in this State. If Raese can turn Manchin into Obama, he wins.
I’m not sure. That’s unfortunate. Money, however, will not be an issue for Raese, and we’ll see exactly how much the Chamber commits to this race. It’s worth noting that Manchin has basically disavowed the national Democrat agenda, including card check, cap and trade, and Obamacare. I imagine that had some influence on the chamber. That being said, he’s still a Democrat and his vote in the senate will empower people who believe in that left wing agenda, so it’s puzzling to me why the chamber would endorse him. I could understand it a lot more if he was running for an office in West Virginia, rather than federal office.
No, Manchin is well liked. Trying to destroy him wouldn’t go over well.
The key is running on a platform that as a Democrat he’d be obligated to support his party’s President. Elect Raese and they can have the guy they like remain their Govenor but Raese can act as a representative for them and against Obama.
Christe has 2,000,0000...spread the money around
Has he?
Earlier in the year he said he supported Obamacare and would have voted for it.
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