If these trends continue, Republicans could gain 60 seats in the House

Hotair ^ | 09/13/2010 | Patrick Ishmael

[FrdmLvr]

If we take that many seats, we better damn well set this country straight, or we’re losing them come 2012. People are not going to settle for a do-nothing Congress or an 0bama rubber stamp. They better STAND UP and TAKE BACK America! Repeal National Healthcare, end the Cap and Tax nonsense, cut taxes for all to restart the economy, end the moratorium on drilling and open up oil fields, end the Amnisty for Illegals nonsense, and build the fence. That’s a good start.

[counterpunch]

The GOP has plenty of time to f*** it up.

John “Business as Usual” Boehner is working on that as we speak.
 

[vicar7]

Knock and the door will be opened big time in November when we throw 80 plus out the door including my congressman Alan Grayson.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SeekAndFind.

Patrick Ishmael: Since April, I've been predicting a House GOP pick-up in the low 50s.

[Liz]

ping

[InterceptPoint]

An interesting bit of history. The author of this article, Patrick Ishmael, uses a very similar system to the one used by KHR to average the rankings of our 6 "Experts". He developed his method pretty much in the same timeframe as we did but totally independently of ours and he published his approach in an earlier Hot Air article. That article is referenced on the "Expert's Page" at KHR as an acknowledgment of that fact.

He is using a different set of "Experts" than we do and his index numbers are, it seems, scaled differently but the method is the same and he comes up with a Vulnerable Democrat ranking list that is very close, but not identical, to one we have. Our list also includes some slightly vulnerable Republicans since there are at least 2-3 seats that the Republicans are likely to lose and a dozen or so where the Dems have at least a long shot at picking up the seat.

The KHR list is that is our equivalent of the Ishmael list is our Master List Rankings .

[K-oneTexas]

I agree. That is why I asked my questions.

[randita]

You have 10 seats in PA on the Key House Races list. One of those seats, PA-06-Gerlach (R) is looking to be a GOP hold, and another 5-6 are polling decently for the GOP and may switch over from the Dark Side. I see 4 PA seats which will be a challenge for the GOP and they’ll need a good turnout to capture - PA 4, PA 17, PA 10 and PA 12 (Murtha’s seat-may be beyond redemption).

A very positive situation in PA is that Corbett (R-Governor) and Toomey (R-Senate) are polling very well and SHOULD have comfortable victories. They will help the ticket down the line. There may be some people who will split their tickets, but I think it’s more likely that if Republicans and Indies are enthused to come out and vote, they’re going to go GOP. I don’t see a big groundswell for either Onorato (D-Governor) or Sestak (yawn-D-Senate) in PA. The Phila. and Pitts. 100+% voting levels are not likely to occur this November. Neither Onorato or Sestak will excited the constituents in those urban regions. Unions will do their darndest to get the folks out, but that might not be enough this year.

The situation at the gubernatorial and senatorial levels will likely impact turnout for the House races in many states. One example would be NV-03 (Heck (R) against Titus (D). The Reid-Angle matchup should bring out a good crowd of voters. Angle’s voters are energetic and that should help Heck.

[Liz]

Thanks for the deconstruction.