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BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Starting the Testing Program - and Open Thread 2 (July 15, 2010)
The Oil Drum ^ | July 15, 2010 - 6:58pm | Heading Out

Posted on 07/15/2010 5:24:07 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

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To: Marine_Uncle

Good points. Yes a lower reservoir pressure could be one of the causes, but thought I read that this reservoir was going to be producing for years with eventually 3-4 Production wells sunk into it running 24 hours a day. Another possibility I read was that there could be cross talk or cross channel between the Wild Well and the Relief Well 1. That was why they stopped the RW 1, so they could tell if pressure was coming in from the Wild Well during the pressure test. Apparently if they got drilling mud coming back up RW 1, they would know something was up. Since they state they have no clue now, we must assume no drilling mud came back up Relief Well 1. My 2 cents.


21 posted on 07/15/2010 7:59:41 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Marine_Uncle

Get some rest. They have the best Government and Corporate minds working on the problem. :>


22 posted on 07/15/2010 8:00:55 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape; All

Ok...for those who understand this....I’ve read so much about this on the internet and would like to know the truth from fellow freepers ‘in the know’ about the risks of this test. What’s the worst that can go wrong and what will the ramifications be? thank you.


23 posted on 07/15/2010 11:06:46 PM PDT by Kimberly GG ("Path to Citizenship" Amnesty candidates will NOT get my vote!)
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To: Marine_Uncle

I agree....but they need to wrestle with the facts as they find them..


24 posted on 07/15/2010 11:09:13 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Kimberly GG; justa-hairyape; Marine_Uncle; CharlesWayneCT
The worst ...an oil leak shows up somewhere....

But if you want a tinfoil opion I was just reading on The Oil Drum and I find this:

MSNBC July 15: Matt Simmons still says BP covering up MASSIVE HOLE miles away, cap test is "absurd"

**********************************EXCERPT****************************************

watchtower on July 15, 2010 - 10:51pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scl2dgK_-Nw

MSNBC July 15: Matt Simmons still says BP covering up MASSIVE HOLE miles away, cap test is "absurd"

He suggests that this one leak under the BOP could not fill the entire GOM.

25 posted on 07/15/2010 11:27:07 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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More:

Dan Danknick on July 16, 2010 - 12:06am says

I'm no BP apologist (or FedGuv supporter either) so I'm sure that a lot of the data we're getting outta Chu and BP has been filtered. That said, I still think Simmons lives on a world where his sky isn't the same color as ours. His dismissive attitude when dropping "facts" suggests he believes and lives within this synthesized reality.

As as scientist, I *do* think it's important to listen to he nutjobs every so often. It forces us to re-examine our beliefs and again test those assumptions that our conclusions rest upon. Discoveries are made, things change.

But Simmons... wow. More for Art Bell, not MSNBC.

26 posted on 07/15/2010 11:29:21 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
Another Youtube of Simmons --June 18:

Matt Simmons on the Gulf Oil Disaster, another leak.flv

27 posted on 07/15/2010 11:36:19 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: justa-hairyape; Marine_Uncle; Kimberly GG; CharlesWayneCT
Just found this at TOD:

Reading a lot of the Posts about Pressure - I see nothing wrong with this number , its within a reasonable range.

*****************************EXCERPT*******************************************

by Sticks on July 16, 2010 - 2:33am

Reading a lot of the Posts about Pressure - I see nothing wrong with this number , its within a reasonable range. If you work out the weight of Oil/Gas in Column then subtract this from Formation Pressure, that will give you a ballpark figure as what to expect.

I have seen weight of Oil given as about 7.7ppg - well if you reduce this to 7.53ppg which would be possible with the amount of Gas its said to contain .
7.53 Oil would give a calculated pressure at the BOP of 6,700 psi.

28 posted on 07/16/2010 12:02:09 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Kimberly GG
For starters, I don't think anybody understands what is going on completely. Not BP. Not the Government. So everything is conjecture based on facts that have been established to a reliable degree. It can be difficult getting facts reliably established because we are going through the government and a corporation. Both contain a wide range of competing interests.

We have had some information released about the testing. It is second hand, but seems very reliable. The maximum internal test pressure was measured at just shy of 7,000 psi. Around 6,700 psi. If max pressure never got above 6,000 psi, they would have stopped the test within 3 hours. It would have meant a major breach in the bore integrity. Oil and methane would have been leaking into the rock strata near the wild well. So worse case scenario has not occurred. At least not yet.

If the pressure would have gotten to 8,000 to 9,000 psi, it would have meant that the well bore integrity was intact. They need an intact well bore to permanently kill the blown out well. If the well bore is destroyed, it would be difficult to inject enough mud to stop flow. That mud would be leaking into the rock strata which can be porous. So the best case scenario did not occur.

Right now we are in a state of limbo. Between worse case and best case. More information is required. Now the 8,000 psi to 9,000 psi best case scenario range is based on the old readings of the reservoirs maximum developed pressure in the Macondo well bore. They also calculated that using mud weight just before they lost control. So what they need to determine now is why did they only get to 6,700 psi. Could the reservoir have blown off enough Methane and have its pressure drop ? It is normal for wells to drop pressure over time, but we are only talking a few months here on a very large reservoir flowing through a partially closed BOP. So it is possible that we could actually be in a best case scenario, but that cannot be determined right now. I think the only way that can be determined is if they see no leakage in the rock strata with their sonar surveys.

If they see leakage, the only way they could kill the wild well would be to use two Relief Wells. They need both to get enough mud to stop the flow, since mud will also be leaking. Earlier today there were reports of possible leakage on the ocean floor, but so far none have been verified.

29 posted on 07/16/2010 12:28:19 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Kimberly GG
Should also add that this is not a topic for which I have received any formal private or public education. Just reading a lot about it because it is interesting to me.

At any rate, you did ask about risks during the conduction of the test. Well the main risk was that the pressure buildup during the test. If that pressure reached 8,000-9,000 psi, it could have caused damage itself to a partially fractured well bore. Especially if it was kept up that high over time. Since we did not get that high, that risk did not occur. Now running at 6,700 psi has risks too, but they are less of a factor. Again, we do not want to damage the well bore. It makes killing the well permanently much more difficult. Absolute worse case would be a sea floor breach with little resistance to flow.

30 posted on 07/16/2010 12:49:00 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape

Thank you very much!


31 posted on 07/16/2010 1:17:17 AM PDT by Kimberly GG ("Path to Citizenship" Amnesty candidates will NOT get my vote!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

We will have to see what kind of response he gets on the Oil Drum. From what I see, the Formation Pressure figure itself is now being called into question. So we are in limbo land.


32 posted on 07/16/2010 1:18:53 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Boa Deep C2 is in a cloud of debri and oil goblets again. Postings on the Oil Drum have stated that when they turn on fans on the ROV, while it is near the ground, it stirs up the sediment. So dont worry. But this last stirring brought up a whole lot of oil droplets. I wonder if they are stirring up the sediment on purpose to see if it contains oil ?
33 posted on 07/16/2010 1:32:53 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape

oops..goblets...should read....droplets


34 posted on 07/16/2010 1:34:17 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape; Kimberly GG

There certainly was a pressure under which they would have called this a failure. Probably something less than 6000 pounds, but only they really knew, and they didn’t tell us. I don’t think a stable 6000psi pressure would mean a “major leak”, it could indicate leaking, and I’m not sure they would completely stop, they might well run tests because they would need to know whether it was stable or not to plan their mud kill (see below).

There was a pressure over which they would immediately “know” things were probably OK. Again, we don’t know what that pressure was. A lot of the pressure was speculation; I believe the 11,800psi number at the bottom is reasonable, but that would translate to a lot lower pressure at the wellhead because of the weight of the oil over the distance (as Earnest pointed out above in a previous comment)

But we have no way of knowing whether the current readings are in line with expectations. And frankly, they didn’t act as if the pressure readings were the all-important piece of data.

Their plan was to pressurize, and if the pressure stabilized, they would do siesmic readings on a periodic basis to determine if there was leakage.

The pressure being stable is really the most important measure. If the pressure started dropping, it would indicate that there was a leak and it was getting bigger. A stable pressure doesn’t prove there is or is not a leak, but it means if there is a leak it’s not being made worse.

The seismic and other readings they are doing will determine if there was leaking. Also of course, if they start seeing oil or methane bubble up around the well or the surrounding seafloor. They are monitoring that as well.

As to the bottom kill, they can bottom kill even if the well is compromised, so long as it isn’t so badly compromised that they simply can’t pump enough mud in to fill it faster than it leaks out.

And I would say that we already have the answer to that question. 6700 psi indicates that significant fluid is staying IN the well, so even if there is a leak they can kill that with mud.

One of the purposes of this test was to determine if they had to do a significant mud kill into the casing, before the did a mud kill into the well itself (by casing I mean the area between the liner and the casing, which should be sealed but that was one of the questions they had, whether the cementing there was adequate).

They would also do a mud kill in the casing if the casing was leaking into the strata. Note that before they do the lining of the hole, they often have leaks into the strata, and they can handle this, they had such a leak at one point in this well back in February that took a long time to seal off.


35 posted on 07/16/2010 7:55:32 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: justa-hairyape

The pressure didn’t build to their 9,000psi projections, so now they’re determining whether 1)the deposit pressure was slightly relieved by the leaked volume, or 2)there are sub- surface faults in or around the casing.

I’m thinking #2


36 posted on 07/16/2010 7:56:59 AM PDT by pingman (Price is what you pay, value is what you get.)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Thanks for the additional information.


37 posted on 07/16/2010 1:24:39 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape; Ernest_at_the_Beach
#32: "We will have to see what kind of response he gets on the Oil Drum. From what I see, the Formation Pressure figure itself is now being called into question. So we are in limbo land."
That is precisely what I was thinking yesterday before that last cold Coors Extra Gold....
I have wondered just how relevant and accurate those earlier on readings that probably got logged into a database at their control center days/hours before the rig went down, where.
With all the problems we read about and questionable actions taking prior and just after they sent off the seismic mapping team before doing that last test, possible sloppy cementing the casings etc.. Do we/they really have an accurate profile of that well's pressure.
I have a feeling either there are gross obstructions within the lower BOP and or, there was a massive bleed off of methane over the past two months within the primary cavity the well bore is attached to. I write a bit prematurely since I am just now logged into FR since early yesterday, and have not got all your updates on this issue.
No response required as I will now become updated as to what you all sent me over the past twenty four hours plus going to the TOD and elsewhere for updates.
38 posted on 07/16/2010 6:16:44 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned....)
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To: Marine_Uncle
Check out this thread for additional info discussed today. Might want to ignore the Simmons conspiracy stuff and the spell checking debate.

Professor: Low pressure reading may suggest well has lost power, not that it's leaking

39 posted on 07/16/2010 6:28:03 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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