A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ (Robert Prechter: Dow To 1,000)

The New York Times ^ | 7-6-2010 | JEFF SOMMER

[Perdogg]

“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’ ” he said. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”

The global warming theory applied to the stock market

[muawiyah]

So far we've faced what is essentially a 5% drop in GDP combined with a doubling of unemployment, and our industrial sector is rapidly becoming the world's lowest cost producer in a number of very critical product lines with world impact.

Instead of taking profits, producers and management organizations are cutting prices.

The market will not grow without profits behind it.

[Nervous Tick]

I’m disappointed. I thought Prechter based his analyses on economics fundamentals, not fractal patterns in the charts.

[jveritas]

The markets will go down but there is no way the DOW would go to 1000, may be 6000-7000 in worst case scenario. It will be the end US and the World economy as we know it if the DOW goes to 1000. It would not be allowed to happen no matter what. There are still much powerful forces than Obama and his socialists and these forces would not allow this to happen.

[Sarajevo]

For someone described as being “in a different league” Prechter is full of a lot of BS.

[EnglishOnly]

“His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come.”

He’s right!

[steve86]

Elliott Wave is not fractal analysis, despite what the article might say, although fractals make their presence known in the 5-3 wave cycles. Sort of as in nature, fractals show up all over the place (very obvious in shell patterns, etc.), but the study of zoology is called zoology not fractals.

[Slyfox]

“His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come.” He’s right!

I have been out of the stock market for 2 1/2 years now and I sleep well at night.

[Frantzie]

The current P/C on the S&P 500 is 22. It usually drops to 6 in a serious recession. That would take it down to about 2700. Other Elliott Wave people who called 2008 to within 100 points on the Dow are calling for about 3,600.

A lot of people in 1931 were probably saying things will get better and O is worse than socialist FDR.

You have mu*lims running NASA now. Did you ever expect that? It was very good when the Germans ran it.

[Frantzie]

Typo - current P/E on the S&P is 22.

[Frantzie]

Typo - current P/E on the S&P is 22.

[jveritas]

As I said in my earlier post there are still much powerful forces than Obama and his socialists and these forces would not allow this to happen.

[SAJ]

Bob Prechter has always been a technician; his analysis in 1980, predicting the rise of the DJIA to 3200+, was a classic.

As Marty Schwartz (one of the most profitable traders in history) has pointed out, Prechter has been waiting for and predicting a disaster since roughly 1988.

One of these days, he'll be correct. Very possibly this year, given that the goobermint are actively conspiring against both anything resembling sound finance and against the few private citizens who are still in the stock markets.

I trust you are aware that more than 50% of the volume on NYSE today -- TODAY -- occurred in just 99 issues, and C and BP were the two share leaders. SPY, of course, led the pack.

Taking any hints from this mkt action? I am, please be assured.

Good trading to you!

[NeoCaveman]

The Dow to an ounce of gold ratio is going back to 1.

I was hoping they would meet at 5000 but they could meet at 1000.

[devere]

“It will be the end US and the World economy as we know it if the DOW goes to 1000. It would not be allowed to happen no matter what.”

No, that would be Dow of zero.

Dow 1000 could be caused by nuclear war/terrorism or catastrophic natural disaster.

[2banana]

The markets will go down but there is no way the DOW would go to 1000, may be 6000-7000 in worst case scenario. It will be the end US and the World economy as we know it if the DOW goes to 1000. It would not be allowed to happen no matter what. There are still much powerful forces than Obama and his socialists and these forces would not allow this to happen.

Why? In the GD I stocks lost about 90% of their value - or about the same amount to DOW 1000 today (GD II) despite all the insane FDR government socilaist policies. Life did go on...

[blam]

Coming Chaos: No Banks, No Public Facilities, No Food and Rampaging Gangs of Desperate People

[Sooth2222]

His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come.

Hmmmmm. What could possibly go wrong with that strategy?

I'm even more bearish than the average bear, but I think Dow 1,000 is somewhat less likely than Dow 1,000,000 and $200 Happy Meals.

[Brilliant]

1000... Not very likely anytime soon.

But if so, then Obama won’t make it thru his first term.