House Prices Are Still Too High And They're Going To Tank -- Ritholtz

The Business Insider ^ | 6-30-2010 | Henry Blodget

[Finny]

Santa Barbara is high, yet the agents tell us that prices have been falling. The cheapest place in SB is $400K a small 2bd condo.

Yes, that sounds more like it. I woudn't think $187K would even get you a '70s trailer in a mobile home park in SB!

Bummer about the price drop on your home; ours has also seen a big drop (San Bernardino Co.), but as it's in a very cool location, is pefect for two self-employed, work-at-home folks like us, and doesn't have a homeowners association(!!!), we're sticking around as long as God allows! And the upside: our property taxes are almost half what they used to be, plus I'm pretty sure that if we put this place on the market right now, we'd get more for it than the appraisal indicates it's worth; if we put it on the market at what "they" say it's worth, it would sell in about two seconds.

Personally, I think real estate in a good location is always a smart investment, and I'm sanguine that homes in areas with good climates, scenic settings, and/or vibrant economies, are always the last to dip in price and the first to go back up. Property values reflect demand for a location, and locations can't be duplicated. God isn't making any more California coastline (at least, not anytime soon, I hope!).

I think that in time, perhaps a long time, but then again, God works His miracles in wondrous ways, so maybe relatively soon, property values will come back in areas with natural/economic appeal (climate, views, commerce) and people who walked away from homes and mortgages NOT because they couldn't afford the monthly payment but because they were so hung up on the numbers of being "upside down," are going to kick themselves in the butt.

If I had a the dough, I'd yank it out of the market and be buying all the coastal property I could right now, and prices are quite low and dropping lower in certain areas, even in Santa Barbara county, for pretty decent and sometimes downright NICE homes only a mile or two (or less) from the beach. Banking on the future ... I grew up in a coastal town that was nothing special then, and where boring old two-bedroom, one-bath 60s tract homes that average joes lived in, now, even in this market, sell for a minimum of $500K, usually more in the $600-700K neighborhood. It happend then ... it WILL happen again in other coastal communities not yet discovered by outsiders. :^)

[svcw]

.-)