First, the House will pass the Senate's Obamacare bill that passed the Senate in December. The House leadership will vote on the Senate bill, and Pelosi will allow no amendments or modifications to the Senate bill.
How will Pelosi's deal fly with rambunctious liberal members of her majority that don't like the Senate bill, especially its failure to include a public option, put heavy fines on those who don't get insurance and offering no income tax surcharge on the "rich"?
That's where the second part of the Pelosi-deal comes in.
Behind closed doors Reid and Pelosi have agreed in principle that changes to the Senate bill will be made to satisfy liberal House members -- but only after the Senate bill is passed and signed into law by Obama.
This deal will be secured by a pledge from Reid and the Senate's Democratic caucus that they will make "fixes" to the Senate bill after it becomes law with Obama's John Hancock.
But you may ask what about the fact that without Republican Scott Brown and independent Democrats like Joe Lieberman, Reid simply doesn't have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Republican filibuster that typically can stop major legislation?
According to my source, Reid will provide to Pelosi a letter signed by 52 Democratic Senators indicating they will pass the major changes, or "fixes", the House Democrats are demanding. Again, these fixes will be approved by the Senate only after Obama signs the Senate bill into law.
Reid has also agreed to bypass Senate cloture and filibuster rules and claim that these modifications fall under "reconciliation" and don't require 60 Senate votes.
To pass the fixes, he won't need one Republican, he won't even need Joe Lieberman or wavering Democrats like Jim Webb of Virginia.
His 52 pledged Senators give him a simple majority to pass any changes they want, which will later be rubberstamped by Pelosi's House and signed by Obama.
This plan, of course, is a total subversion of the legislative process.
Typically, the Senate and House pass their own unique legislation and then both bills go to a conference committee. In conference the leadership of both Democrat-dominated houses wheel and deal and iron out differences.
The final compromise bill is then sent back to the full Senate and full House for a vote and has to pass both to go to the President.
In the House a simple majority passes the legislation. But under Senate rules, major legislation requires 60 votes to end a filibuster.
As it stands, the House bill and Senate bill have major discrepancies. Reid does not have 60 votes to pass a compromise bill that would no doubt include some of the radical provisions House members have been demanding.
But if the House passes the exact Senate bill that passed by a 60-39 Senate vote last month, there is no need for a conference on the bill. It will go directly to the President's desk.
There is a rub to all of this.
This secret plan being hatched by Pelosi and Reid requires not only a pledge by 52 Democratic Senators to vote later for the House modifications. House liberals must actually believe these Senators will live up to their pledge and pass the fixes at some future date.
A Senate source cautions: “Senators more than House members and both more than ordinary people, lie.”
Still, my Senate source and others in Washington believe that the liberals in the House, grasping at straws after the stunning Massachusetts defeat, will go along with the Reid-Pelosi plan to bypass a conference bill and and will ultimately vote for the Senate version without changes.
Among the key "fixes" House liberals are demanding the Senate pass in reconciliation at some later date include a “carve out” for unions from the “Cadillac policy” insurance tax. The Senate plan funds their health care plan by heavy taxes on so-called "Cadillac" insurance plans that provide those insured with exceptionally good coverage including almost unlimited health access with little or no co-payments. The Senate's view was that rich people have such plans and should be taxed for them to pay the less fortunate.
But many unions have "Cadillac' plans for their members, and they are furious their members will be hit with the Senate tax. The unions have told their minions in the House to oppose the Senate Cadillac plan tax.
House liberals are also requiring a fix that increases fines for those who flout the law and don't buy health insurance (the Pelosi passed plan includes criminal penalties, including possible jail time if a person doesn't purchase insurance). Another fix will raise subsidies for low-income families seeking to buy insurance.
In the original House bill that passed, healthcare expansion costs would have been paid for by an income tax surcharge on the "rich." House liberals are pushing for that fix as well.
So what is the counter-move? How do opponents of Obamacare stop this?
Opponents cannot rely on liberal Democrats in the House who might balk at passing the Senate bill with just a "pledge" from 52 Senators. I have no doubt House liberals, despite their skepticism, will fade under pressure from Pelosi and Obama. They will do their duty and pass the Senate bill, whatever their current posturing.
Instead, the key to stopping the Pelosi-Reid plan lies with conservative or “moderate” Democrats who voted for the health care bill the first time.
There are 23 of these conservative-leaning Democratic House members who voted for Pelosi's Obamacare back in November, which passed by just five votes, with 39 Democrats defecting to vote against the bill.
All 23 of these Congressman who did vote for the Pelosi bill are extremely vulnerable.
Opponents of Obamacare need to climb all over these 23 Congressmen with TV ads and advocacy campaigns in their districts to get them to change their vote this time, to vote "no" to the Senate bill when it comes before the House.
Voters need to say, "You voted for Obamacare the first time. But your district opposes it by 2 to 1. Now it is coming up for a vote again. Listen to your constituents and vote no. We don’t want Medicare cuts or premium increases or rationing of medical care. Don’t monkey with our health care. Vote no this time.”
Since the House healthcare bill passed by five votes, much has happened and the political landscape has changed dramatically.
The Massachusetts election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy's Senate seat has sent shock waves through Washington. Every one of these 23 Democrats knows they will face an angry backlash in their districts if they vote for the Senate bill and go along with Pelosi-Reid plan to ram through Obamacare.
I believe now is the time to act for opponents to act. The truth is that Obamacare is hanging by a thread.
Opponents, if they move now, can drive a stake through its heart.
Once these Congressmen hear from their aroused constituents, they won’t be able to back Obamacare.
As I mentioned, the Pelosi health bill passed the House by only 220-215. Nancy Pelosi knows she has no margin for error.
If only a handful of these 23 Congressman change their vote under public pressure, the Pelosi-Reid plan is stopped and Obamacare is dead.
As crazy as this seems, Reid, Pelosi and Obama have all said they are not backing away from this legislation.
And more often than not Morris has been right about what is going on behind the scenes.
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if they try this.
Let them try it. I double dare them to do this.
despite collapsing public approval for healthcare "reform" and disintegrating Congressional supportThanks paul in cape. G'night all, I really mean it this time.
Secret? Can’t imagine that.
I know the Reid and Pelosi and Zero want Obamacare passed regardless. I just don’t think it’s going to go like they are/may be planning.
For one thing, I don’t think ANY congress critter is going to put something in writing with their name on it “promising” anything. And for any Senator to sign something to be given to Pelosi is really far-fetched.
Morris likes to make up convoluted plans that he says “could” happen but much of it is out there and a lot of the time he’s wrong.
This is a bit far-fetched for me to believe.
I believe they have a better chance of working out the problem enough to suit the House and then buying a RINO behind door number 0ne.
As Dick has mentioned before, we need to turn way more than the 4 or so difference in the first vote. It was merely that close because a number of Dems took cover once they knew it would pass. They had 15 or 20 margin if they really needed it. We need to turn as many as possible and pray.
Secret yet transparent.
The Senate’s view was that rich people have such plans and should be taxed for them to pay the less fortunate.
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This is blatantly a LIE. Even the DUmmies realize this is a lie. Many older people, not yet on medicare, but close to it, have policies that exceed that amount. Most aren’t *rich* and are hoping to just scrimp to pay for them until they can get on medicare. LIES, LIES, LIES. They try this crap, anyone that pays a dime of taxes on their plan is a fool and a coward. Tell them to shove it.
the Pelosi passed plan includes criminal penalties, including possible jail time if a person doesn’t purchase insurance).
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They need to take some of that porkulus money and start building lots of jails and hire a lot more LEOS’. They’re going to need them.
So that would mean abortions are covered, tax all Cadillac health plans, no public option, pay the Cornhusker Kickback and trashing Medicare? Go for it as$$ holes.
People .. let’s get a grip here! First, if you haven’t seen Chrissy Matthews dismembering Grayson for stating a similar tack, then it’s worth a watch.
Second, yes they ARE that stupid, and I wouldn’t put it past them to try.
**BUT**
What makes you people so certain that Nazi Pelousy and Harry Reid, two of the biggest idiots to ever run the House and Senate, can successfully get this through NOW, when they weren’t able to get it through with a supermajority in the Senate and a ~40-50 seat advantage in the House?!
*IF* they are able to get this done in the CURRENT toxic environment then they get the hubris and death wish award for 2010. And then Conservatives ride in on a LANDSLIDE of anti-Dim-o-RAT sentiment and a pledge to overturn and eliminate the legislation! Either way, there is NOTHING we can do now except to call and write as we’ve been calling and writing and then work for victory in November. But let’s not get suicidal because Dick Morris said so. Yet!
Why doesn’t Obama just install his horse as a Senator while he’s at it?
I hope Dick Morris is just repeating an old story. But if not — then what is our country coming to?