[Star Traveler]

I'm looking forward to the coming decade of colder winters... :-)

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Dalton Minimum Returns

 21 Apr 09 - Paul Stanko of NOAA writes meteorologist Anthony Watts to tell him of an interesting development in his tracking of the International Sunspot Number (ISN).

Paul writes:

My running mean of the International Sunspot Number for 2009 just dipped below 1.00. For anything comparable you now need to go back before 1913 (which scored a 1.43) which could mean we're now competing directly with the Dalton Minimum. Just in case you'd like another tidbit, here is something that puts our 20 to 30 day spotless runs in perspective… the mother of all spotless runs (in the heart of the Maunder Minimum, of course!) was from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671. It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days, all of which had obs. To say that that we in interesting times is a huge understatement. We are about to enter a Grand Minimum, which in the past have produced a cooler planet, while our government is preparing for run-away global warming. Who could have predicted this stupidity?

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Is a new Dalton Minimum approaching?

Russ Steele

Well 2008 arrived last night and Sunspot Cycle 24 was absent. While we had a flurry of excitement a few week ago when a patch of reverse polarity showed on the Suns surface it soon faded. The Sun reverses polarity with each cycle change. As we have discussed in the past the length of the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle is correlated with temperature and a late arriving cycle can have some long term climate implications for us folks here on Earth. The Cycle 23 solar minimum was at 1996.5, so with an average 11 year cycle we should have seen the new minimum in mid-2007. Here we are in 2008 and the next cycle is already six months late, and the defining minimum generally occurs 12-20 months after the first spot of the new cycle. This would indicate the ending minimum of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24 will come in mid  2009, resulting in a 13 year cycle, the longest since 1784-1797. Interesting to note that this cycle started a long series - 13.6, 12.3, 12.7 years, which coincided with the cold period known as the Dalton Minimum. Stay tuned, these are going to be interesting times. Sun cycles indicate cooling and the politicians are trying stop global warming. We may need a little extra warming over the next thirty years.

Thanks to David Archibald for this graphic showing the relationship of cycle length to temperature in New Hampshire.

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Dalton Minimum

The Dalton minimum in the 400 year history of sunspot numbers The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.

[Star Traveler]

How sunspots were observed “back then”?

From NASA...

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The Sunspot Cycle
(Updated 2009/12/08)

Sunspot Numbers

In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations of Sunspots. Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849 and earlier observations have been used to extend the records back to 1610. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.

[Star Traveler]

Melting ice opens Northwest Passage; Shrinking levels suggest route could become open shipping lane.

Article from: Albany Times Union (Albany, NY) Article date:September 16, 2007 Copyright

Byline: JAMEY KEATEN - Associated Press

PARIS - Arctic ice has shrunk to the lowest level on record, new satellite images show, raising the possibility that the Northwest Passage that eluded famous explorers will become an open shipping lane.

The European Space Agency said nearly 200 satellite photos this month taken together showed an ice-free passage along northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland, and ice retreating to its lowest level since such images were first taken in 1978.

The waters are exposing unexplored resources, and vessels could trim thousands of miles from Europe to Asia by bypassing the Panama Canal. The seasonal ebb and flow of ...

[kempo]

The earth has been in a warming trend for the past 10,000 years and and this is a good thing because it has allowed mankind to populate the planet. When the climate turns and goes into a long term cooling trend billions of people will die. I think something like 60 million people died in Europe alone during the mini ice age in the 1700’s.

[dalereed]

i want global warming!!!

I’m tired of it getting colder every year for more than 10 years!

I used to only wear long pants for 3 or 4 weeks a year and now I have to wear long pants for 5 or 5 months!

[PIF]

Chlorofluorocarbons? Bring Back Freon Now! Stop Global cooling dead in its tracks! And give us all back decent fridges, airconditioners etc...

BTW some one estimated it took only 100 years for the glaciers 2 km thick to form in the last Ice Age... only 95 years left -— hurry.

[stephenjohnbanker]

Algore is not pleased........

[driftless2]

I would embrace global warming (I live in Wisconsin) if it were actually happening. But it’s not.

[Waco]

Anyone wanna buy a years supply of food??

[redgolum]

We just dug out of 10-15 inches of snow here in South Dakota. My parents in Nebraska have more snow than my father has ever seen.

But my goofy brother in law is sure we are all going to fry from Gorbal Warming.

[Former War Criminal]

No need to worry...with the new definition of “decade,” this new ice age will last only 45 years.