'We're in the Middle of a Crash': Black Swan

CNBC ^ | 7/2/2009 | Staff

[EmilyGeiger]

Good for your daughter and her boyfriend. :)
It’s nice to see responsible behavior in the midst of all the chaos out there.

[April Lexington]

Here's a terrifying thought based on this guy's comments:

Washington DC could default on the Federal debt which would crater the global financial system. It would reemerge with a new international currency and the USA would devolve into the third world "Chicago Community" that it already is in many respects. OR...

Washington and the East Coast politicians could just sell off parts of the USA to foreign powers to "convert the Federal debt into equity." Don't laugh... we bought Alaska from the Russians because they couldn't pay their debts and we bought Louisiana from the French because they couldn't pay your debts. Of course, the people of these regions will have nothing to say about it. But, Venezuela may end up owning the Southwest and China may end up owning the Pacific coast. DON'T ASSUME OUR DEAR POLITICIANS IN WASHINGTON WOULDN'T STOOP TO THIS to create an East Coast sophisticated New European satellite....

[April Lexington]

Al Franken was NEVER funny on the old SNL. He was a pathetic worm of a kid who tried to make neurosis a comedy act. It never worked. Minnesota should be sold to Norway and kicked out of the union. Use the money to pay down the national debt and seal the borders...

[east1234]

“Let’s not forget the moderates who nominated the worst candidate in party history.”

And the conservatives who wasted their primary vote crossing over to the dim primary.

[Hoosier-Daddy]

Not Obvious to Obama.

[ROLF of the HILL COUNTRY]

“Washington and the East Coast politicians could just sell off parts of the USA to foreign powers”

Selling states is a lot different than buying raw land.
The inhabitants would revolt immediately.

[TruthConquers]

“The inhabitants would revolt immediately.”

I do believe TPTB would just LOVE that. They are actually wondering what is taking so long.

Now, where is that tin foil hat?

[Publius6961]

What is most remarkable about this thread is that it took nine months for a news agency to interview this guy.

When I first read this in early 2008, I was struck most by a passage which I will have to pinpoint later which I will summarize as: all large banks and financial institutions had highly paid teams whose sole purpose was to "predict" conditions for the following year or two. Not only were none of them ever right, they were never subjected to any sort of accuracy check after the fact.
The team simply went on to create the next prediction.

The irony is that some teams were actually disbanded for ineffectiveness, but after a few years, when memories fade and new hot shots get a good idea, the "predictors" were reinstated. And they are still uniformly wrong, and as seen in September of 2008, blindsided by reality, the Black Swan.

[Costumed Vigilante]

The government needs to deleverage debt and not try stimulus packages that will inflate assets

Translation: Stop throwing gasoline on the fire

Democrat Response: "Not a chance, this is all we know how to do."

A verbis ad verbera

[Publius6961]

Well folks, I am in the midst of reading Taleb's book The Black Swan. I am really enjoying it. The guy is a professional skeptic...

I disagree. He is aprofessional realist. He knows what he doesn't know and won't succumb to the siren call of complexity and charts.

Black Swans, by definition are totally unexpected and unpredictable.
And, more often than not, catastrophic.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

After the primary was decided and we were stuck with McCain. No impact whatsoever.

[DB]

Get real?

One of us does...

[April Lexington]

Selling states is a lot different than buying raw land. The inhabitants would revolt immediately.

I don't think they would. Most people I talked to over the weekend were basically clueless.