N. Korea warns Seoul of military conflict amid tension

Yonhap News ^ | 02/01/09

[TigerLikesRooster]

I see some hint of impatience (or desperation) in their non-stop rhetoric of belligerence. It seems NK would prefer to bluff their way into another appeasement package. I am sure conspicous firework in China's neighorhood would not please Beijing, which would not be a good news to Pyongyang. China does not want further damage to international trade now.

Still, if S. Korea does not cave, N. Korea would be forced to act. It won't be well received among S. Korea's general public let alone SK government. After a decade of appeasement and hundres of millions of dollars in aids, general public in S. Korea are decidedly tired of N. Korea's "ungrateful behaviors."

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[2ndDivisionVet]

Blah, blah, blah. The DPRK has been threatening the ROK since the cease fire was signed in 1953. Where will they get the gasoline & diesel fuel to invade the South? They have to know that we have nuclear weapons on the peninsula and aboard ships at sea. I served two years in Korea, and I wouldn’t want to fight the ROK Army, especially with stunted, malnourished troops vs. well-fed. We had a ROKA honor guard at I Corps (ROK/US) Group headquarters that were all over six feet tall. I doubt if the North could put one of those together from their whole army.

[TigerLikesRooster]

What they can do now without risking their regime survival is to do Hamas-like hit-and-run attacks. Send a small contingent of patrol boats to pick a fight with SK navy. Or shell or fire rockets to S. Korean military installations.

That is probably what they would do. Do some fireworks and claim a victory.

The problem would occur when it does not go as planned. If their provocation ends in a fiasco or get counterstrike after their initial attack.

[myknowledge]

How about joint USAF / ROKAF air raids on SAM sites and nuclear installations?

[allmost]

With obama as Commander in Chief?

[TigerLikesRooster]

As another poster said, I doubt that Obama would do it. Nor the S. Korean government at this time. If there is a retaliation, it would be against patrol boats, artillery or short range missile launcher.

[Bon mots]

They know what's in the Whitehouse now... that is, if he figured out where the door is...

[TigerLikesRooster]

Yes, Odacity is up for Chia Head's personal test.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Isn’t the ROK a G10 nation, whereas the DPRK might as well be Haiti? Yes, they have a strong military, on paper, but many of their weapons are from the 50’s and 60’s, while the ROK has F-16’s, M-48A5’s, their own design tanks, Patriot missiles and a modern navy. Only in men under arms and artillery does the North beat the South, IIRC. Even during my tours there (1978-79 and 1981-82) we half-jokingly said we were there to keep the South from invading the North.

[TigerLikesRooster]

What they essentially have is big terrorist capability. They have a small number of well-trained special forces. They have WMD's. They have a capability of terrorizing their enemy, but not winning a war.

They are Bin Laden's dream come true. Huge terrorist organization propped up by state tax-base.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I don’t know if I’d call people eating grass and tree bark much of a “tax base”, would you?

[TigerLikesRooster]

No, their tax-base is rapidly degenerating, and irreversibly damaged in all likelihood. Still, it is better than not having one. Al Qaeda is reportedly doing its bets to have a state which would prop them up in Pakistan's tribal area.
N. Korea is going backward. Degenerate from a regular state power into terrorist organization leeching on populace.

[Loud Mime]

There hasn’t been a war in Korea in some time. I guess this is the Change that was promised.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Yes, Korean Peninsula is due for radical realignment. We try to do it with minimum collateral damage. Unfortunately, N. Korea and, to a lesser but still significant degree, China won't cooperate.

We tried so much to prevent blow-up. Now, preventing it would not be feasible. Now the goal is to prevent unnecessarily big blow-up. Ready to take some collateral damage, but avert an outright disaster.

[Joe Boucher]

Not sure height amounts for much.
When I lived in Seoul I saw the ROK army and though many were short on stature they were well trained bad asses.

[Joe Boucher]

Peoples paradise has over a million man military ready to invade the South.
Seoul is only 32 miles south of the border and it has a giant bulls eye all over it.
Even if the ROK army blunted the assault it would be a very bloody affair.
South has lots to damage, North, not so much.

[musicman]

"They know what's in the Whitehouse now..."

[Bon mots]

[lt.america]

Good debates can be had on a head to head battle. While career military in the ROKA or ROK MARINES are very professional, there conscripts remind one of beetle Bailey at times. I feel there is an understanding without US intervention, the South would fall. Obviously we never had to worry about that coming to fruition as we would never accept a communist Korean Peninsula.

IMO the timing to all of this is to see how HC will react. I think she will try to make some political hay out of this to try and prove her foreign policy chops, and I am sure the North will get some type of concessions from the new administration.