Posted on 11/03/2008 7:38:36 AM PST by MaverickElephant
Welcome to FR!
It’s broken glass time! Everybody turn out! Turnout is what will turn a loss into a win or a squeaker into a blowout! Let’s cream Obama!
It's an interesting way to forecast tomorrow, to see how well pollsters did in predicting the Hillary vs. Obambi races. I wonder which pollster did the best.
It seems to me that if there is still indeed a Bradley factor, it would have been most evident in those contests.
The oversampling’s been going on for weeks, if not months. Check out this link:
In many of these polls, the Obama lead is the same or less than the oversample of Dems. These polls are steaming piles of crap, and I’ll stand by that even if we lose tomorrow night. If they’re correct in predicting the winner, it will be like the psychic who claimed she “predicted” the Hindenburg disaster because she had a dream about a big fire a week before the incident.
Not to put too fine a point on it, the polls are not nonsense. If you take the data the pollsters collect and weight it using their formulas on voter turnout, the polls are accurate reflections of the data. The validity of the weighting factors creates the polling variation on the Dan Rather TANG document: polling data can be accurate but incorrectly skewed. 8-)
What the headlines are not telling you is that the pollsters' underlying assumptions on voter turnout are sheer nonsense. There is no scientific means of determining in advance the percentage of Demonrat voters vs. Pubbie voters in the general election. By ignoring historic voter turnout norms from 2000 and 2004, this year's polls are skewed and likely inaccurate.
There is no way to determine how the voters will vote for those who hangup when the pollsters call. An assumption is made that they will reflect the general population's leanings. Believe this one at your own risk.
Bottom line: the polls have entertainment value and this year (as in most years) give great comfort to the left. But the polls have NO predictive value whatsoever unless their turnout models happen to fall in line with the actual voting population.
Thanks. Welcome to you too.
Oops.. I meant that for MaverickElephant :)
WELCOME TO FR, FRiend!!
Big Bump!!
UNION VOTERS
PUMAS
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