Posted on 11/03/2008 7:38:36 AM PST by MaverickElephant
I assume you’ve seen this “PUMA”-based analysis. One can never know when he/she is self-deluding, but given the KNOWN presence of 18 MM PUMAs, I find this analysis pretty credible. We need only about 1 MM of them, dispersed properly, of course. I find this a whole lot less far fetched than 0bama being ahead by ten and twelve points, which is utterly absurd.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2123087/posts
The polls do have meaning. I just can’t say what they mean without getting my post zotted.
The polls are pure communist propaganda to mislead the sheeple.
The polls are wrong every election and they ALWAYS favor communist democrats, never republican socialists.
If I understand the process correctly, those Republicans aren't allowed to switch back until the next election so the amount of registered Democrats is definitely overstated and this may be one of the factors in why the polls have been so favorable to Obama.
So it could be that this "Operation Chaos" ends up having an impact far greater than it's original intent, which was merely to disrupt the Democratic nomination process. I guess we'll find out tomorrow night.
As of Friday 31st October the early votes in Colorado:
Dems....%37.846....488,575
Rep.....%36.087....465,869
Ind.....%26.066.... 336,511
Total votes casted...1,290,955
So how does this match up with Rasmussen, Gallup, Survey USA, Red Star Tribune, ARG, CBS/New York Slimes, et al, party ID models? So where is that +10% spread?
Hard proof that the pollsters are playing with your minds.
http://www.elections.colorado.gov/WWW/default/GoVoteColorado/general_election_transaction_report.pdf
POLLS!...SMOLLS!
VOTE NO TO SOCIALISM TOMORROW!
So the polls you disagree with are nonsense and the polls you agree with are not? Does that pretty much sum it up?
Welcome to FR.
I hate to say this but for just about every national poll to finish on election eve with movement towards Obama is not good news. EVERYONE here said they would tighten up in the final days of this campaign and they have not. We have seen movement in the state polls towards McCain but I just cannot imagine that all of these national polls with Obama +5 and up are going to hang their reputations on the line just to TRY to help him get elected.
Get out and vote, drag everyone you know to the polls to vote for McCain/Palin because I think it’s gonna take a miracle now. We are in for 4 or more years of complete and utter poltical devastation the likes of which none of us have seen.
Welcome to FR.
Living in Britain at the time, I remember laughing my @$# off. :-)
WOW! I had forgotten about Peace Moonbeam! I was exchanging private emails w/ her a few years ago, after
seeing a link to her somewhere, (maybe here, on FR)and it’s great to see her site is still up and running, and everybit as funny as it was then.
Weekends were made for Michelob!
polling is a science. It’s only as reliable as the person applying the science.
The underlying assumptions on most of the polls are what skews it to Obama in numbers that are too large IMO.
When McCain pulls this out, a lot of pollsters will need to really evaluate how they weigh certain assumptions after all is said and done because they would have done a great disservice to the country because there will be riots, and people will die.
I worked with pollsters and most of them are egghead types, people that get too buried in numbers to actually see whats going on. There is also the agenda factor that’s in play too and there is no equation that can brush away personal bias.
Yes. Before, and during WW2, British intelligence infiltrated USA polling to influence the US public to get them into the war and keep them there.
I remember Rove saying many times that the polls *always* trend against the Republican after a weekend, because the weekend polls are always notoriously bad for Republicans.
Not saying McCain is ahead, or that he’ll win tomorrow (although my gut tells me he pulls this off by a larger margin than many of the hopefuls think), but for the polls to trend Democrat after a weekend is totally normal.
I’m sure Obama is ahead two points or three at most.
However, it’s within the MOE with a decent amount of undecided voters.
The exit polls showed a Kerry blowout around 2PM on election day four years ago.
ALL OF THEM showed it, and ALL OF THEM were wrong.
It’s happened before, and polls are not science.
Check it out here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123557/posts
Good Hunting... from Varmint Al
You have understated the effect of oversampling.
As explained in the post, How to Adjust for Oversampling, a one percent oversampling error results in a reduction of about 0.7 percent from one side (not every person counted will vote against the oversampled party) AND an addition of about 0.7 percent to the other side.
Therefore, in your example, if the ABC Poll has indeed oversampled the Democratic side by nine points, each side will change by about 6.3% -- for a total swing of 12.6%. In other words, Barry drops from an 8 point lead to a 4.6 point deficit.
Similarly, a ten point Gallup oversampling error results in a 14 point swing -- and Barry's eleven point lead drops to a 3 point deficit. Well withing the MOE of both polls.
You might find it interesting to adjust the polls for their oversampling bias and note they are actually pretty close when they don't try to cook the books, and they almost all favor McCain.
excellent post! ty!
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