Posted on 10/30/2008 11:04:02 AM PDT by americanophile
>> This urban legend that holds that white voters may be telling pollsters they’re voting for Obama while they’re secretly harboring racial reservations about him deserves to be banished from our political conversation.
That’s not the Bradley effect. It has nothing to do with “racial reservations” — but fear of being called racist by a pollster. It isn’t the racism of the voter, its the feared racial judgmentalism of the pollster that’s the problem.
H
On November 5th, it will be called the Barak HUSSEIN Obama effect.
If the effect means he loses, I am all for it.
On November 5th , there will be a new effect called the PUMA effect.
“Enough. This urban legend that holds that white voters may be telling pollsters they’re voting for Obama while they’re secretly harboring racial reservations about him deserves to be banished from our political conversation.”
That doesn’t seem, to me, to be the only possible explaination for the Bradley Effect. There are also whites who say they’ll vote for a black man to sound tolerant on the phone, then vote against him in the booth, for reasons unrelated to race.
Too funny. This WaPo writer doesn’t even define the “Bradley Effect” correctly!
Rassmusen Poll (Hillary +5)April 21
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary
Election results (Hillary +10) April 23
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4701035&page=1
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
IIRC, our very own LS did an analysis of recent elections and found the Bradley Effect to be alive and well?
At any rate, what is described in the article is not the Bradley effect. The BE does not involve racist people, but people who are afraid of being thought racist by the (unknown) person on the other end of the phone line. With the amount of racially divisive garbage tossed out into the field by Dear Leader’s campaign, I would imagine the BE will play more of a role than many think.
But didn't this happen to in many other places, not just NH? The author does nothing to explain this phenomenon, otherwise. Was it really bad polling? Deliberately lying pollsters trying to affect turnout? Both?
Because we all know Democrats aren't racist.
This is an Op Ed, Khachigian is a highly respected former senior aid to Ronald Reagan and a staunch conservative.
How does he explain Doug Wilder in Virginia. Leading by 10 in the polls the day before the election, he won by less than one.
Of course the truth about the Bradley / Wilder effect is that it is a fear of being considered a racist, rather than racisim that accounts for the difference between the polls and the election results, at least in part. A partial explanation is the build in lefty bias in most polls.
read the whole article
Ok, maybe we could call it the “Wilder” effect, either way Barry gets bit in the butt.
Seems alive and well based on that data, but I wonder what part, if any, Rush’s “Operation Chaos” played in the spring?
The “Bradley Effect” may be the “lousy leftist polls” effect...
October 29, 1982
2 Republicans Found Gaining in California
AP
Mervin Field’s latest California Poll shows the Democratic candidate for Governor, Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles, leading George Deukmejian, the Republican Attorney General, by only 6 percentage points. The margin was 47 to 41.
Mayor Bradley had been leading by more than 20 points in earlier polls conducted by Mr. Fields’s organization. A Field survey on the Senate race showed the Republican, Mayor Pete Wilson of San Diego, leading Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. by 6 points. The spread was the same as in the gubernatorial race, 47 to 41. Three weeks ago, the poll reported Governor Brown leading 43 to 42.
Given the potential sampling error in the polls, neither lead could be considered substantial, but the trend in favor of the Republican candidates was of interest to California political observers.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1027_635.aspx
The Bradley/Wilder Effect
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
October 27, 2008 — It is probably the secret “Great White Hope” of some Republicans. And if by some miracle John McCain wins, it will undoubtedly become the Democrats’ accepted explanation for Barack Obama’s loss. It is the much-discussed “Bradley effect,” or in the South, the “Wilder effect.” It is the — unproved — assertion that some white voters tell pollsters they are either undecided or plan to vote for the black candidate, then vote for the white candidate. The supposition is that these voters fear they would exhibit, or reveal, racial prejudice if they told the pollster they were voting for the white candidate.
The theory is named for two elections. In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%. Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker points out, “If you give Wilder all the ‘undecided’ blacks and Coleman all the ‘undecided’ whites, it comes out at 50%-50%.” (In any case, Wilder got about 40% of the white vote; were Obama to replicate this, he would carry most of the South.)
“In New York, polls made public the day before the mayoral election gave David N. Dinkins leads of 14 percentage points (by The Daily News with WABC-TV) to 18 points (by The New York Observer). His actual margin of victory over Rudolph W. Giuliani was about 2 percentage points.”
I’m just ignoring the polls. I’ve never been polled in my life. In fact, no one that I know has - I don’t know who the hell they poll. I screamed at the Obama campaign worker that campaign to my door. I would do the same if some pollster asked me if I was voting for that NeoCom. Personally I wouldn’t give a damn if they thought I was racist or not, they don’t know me. He’s a socialist and he’s trying to steal this election through voter and campaign finance fraud. If a pollster asks me if I’m voting for Obama my answer will still be the same, f**k no!
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