If These Numbers Are Right, You Can Almost Call Nevada For McCain Now

National Review Online ("The Campaign Spot") ^ | 10/30/08 | Jim Geraghty

[chimera]

... I like to ask them why they are supporting Obama, and I usually get the same reply, “change,” to which I say “what change,” and at that point they give up and walk up to others.

I get the same answer from Obombots I talk to. I ask them "change to what", and they can't answer, they don't know what he stands for. Some say, "he gives me hope", and I ask, hope for what? They can't answer, other than "hope for change", which brings us back to "change to what?" It's amazing. There's nothing there. It's all vacuous words and symbols for these people. They don't have a clue as to what they're voting for. There is absolutely nothing of substance or reality.

[GVnana]

I’m suspicious of early voting numbers because I think Republicans are more likely to vote early. That being said, DEAR GOD MAKE IT SO!

[hunter112]

I’m assuming that pollsters can’t call me or anyone else who’s on the do not call list.

I believe that charitable and political calls are excepted. The Do Not Call List was set up to deal with commercial interests only. Being as the SCOTUS has OKed restrictions on commercial speech, this would be constitutional. I doubt that it would be considered constitutional to restrict political speech, and the exemption for polls was written in there, since legislators all use telephone polling.

I do agree with the rest of your reasoning. In addition, I think its safe to say that those tending to vote Republican have been more discouraged (think McCain's support for the bailout) than those who like Obambi. I would imagine that the latter category of voter would be more than happy to respond to a poll, while a solid Republican might not want to give a pollster the time of day.

[Tribune7]

I think there was a thread about something similar going on in Fla.

[dools007]

Are you asking a rhetorical question?

[Diamond]

I think the hundreds of thousands of fake Democrat registrations were intended to make Obama look like a sure winner in the polls.

Or to manufacture Democrat votes after the polls close.

Cordially,

[MooseChic]

McCain is going to do slightly better than Bush in 2004
Obama is going to do slightly worse than Kerry in 2004.
GAME OVER .

[reformedliberal]

Christian blacks who don’t accept abortion or gay marriage are not voting for zerO.

PUMAs have been systematically lying to pollsters while pushing Dems for McCain to vote straight R tickets.

[dools007]

I think one component may be—assuming what we’re hearing is true—the Bradley Effect. I believe there are far more white racists in the Demrat Party than the Pubbie Party.

I think some Hillery women do not have a problem voting for McCain because the dems never demonized him. Moreover, he’s white. I think many women fear, rightly or wrongly, being raped by a black man. This fear was what the dem writer was playing on when she said Palin better not go to Harlem (or wherever) because some big black brothas would rape her.

I think many women—even demrat women—were offended by The Messiah’s attempt to Bork Gov. Palin. This will bleed some number of votes from “The One”.

I think Joe the Plumber hit a chord with many blue collar folks. This was compounded by the dems attempt to Bork Joe plus other Messiah, Biden and Murtha comments that were really sneers at the so-called working class.

I think Nader and other green or socialist presidential candidates will bleed even more vote from the Marxist Onada.

I think the dems focused their voter registration efforts on people who are notoriously undependable. These include the dead, felons, drunks, junkies, homeless and the young. You can sign these people up but they still have to be found when it comes time to vote. Then one hopes they are sober and can read—or be able to comprehend the sample ballot they will be given before they go behind the curtain. Afterall, they’re on their own once they step into the voting booth.

I think the Marxist/socialist gorilla is finally out in the open with regard to “The One”. This is bleeding not only tepid dem vote from the Marxist Onada, but also independent votes.

Finally, I think there are a still a fair sized number of traditional dems out there who will not vote for the anti-American empty suit.

It is fortuitous that all these birds are coming home to roost at exactly the right time.

On the other hand I do not see one negative sticking to McCain going into the last few days before Nov, been able to tie McCain to lending and Wall Street messes.

In addition, McCain is enjoying the fruits of the energy Gov. Palin has brought to the campaign—not to mention Joe the Plumber. What’s more the polls would suggest McCain is on a roll. This appears to be somewhat corroborated by early voting results.

The reality is that the Marxist Onada has had nothing but bad news—bogus poll reporting notwithstanding—since the last debate with McCain. And all the biased polling that’s been undertaken never materially moved Onada beyond the MOE. Now the pollsters have to acknowledge reality if they want to keep there jobs.

The Marxist Onada was counting on his being in McCain’s position going into the last days of the campaign. All happy news about the inevitability of His Presidency. To be sure, they’re saying the words. But reality is fast setting in.

In the end, as we all know, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Therefore, McCain’s election to the US Presidency is accomplished only if we all vote. It is further enhanced if each of us can find a way to get at least one other person to the voting booth next Tuesday.

[henkster]

I think it gets worse. I think the networks will lie about the number in VA and PA; they will overstate 0 and understate McCain. Then, they will project both states, demoralizing R’s in all other time zones. Also, they will demoralize R poll watchers in PA and VA, so they will not be as vigilant in challenging ACORN fraud. ACORN gets to create enough “early ballots” for 0bama that those states “certify” 0bama the winner.

I’m in full tin-foil hat mode now. But many of my non-tin foil hat friends believe this will be a fraudulent election.

[WOSG]

Is this Ohio? Interesting... but anecdotal.

I believe that the ‘bradley effect’ of not-willing-to-state mccain democrats is showing up in the large undecideds in polls. Also encouraged by this:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119986/posts

which to me indicates that *finally* the Pelosi Congress is getting the butt-kicking low ratings they deserve.

[LS]

I don't think this is far fetched. PA, they will probably ignore, because they believe their own crap that it's "not close." So I keep thinking McCain can sneak in through PA and nail this down before they have a chance to work their little strategy, which is to call VA early.

However, check your freepmail for another thought I don't want public.

[longtermmemmory]

the problem is we have to overcome the margin of fraud.

[LS]

Again, I have never believed fraud to be the central issue here. It happens, but it would require a lot more fraud than the Dems have proven capable of at present to swing any state.

[Frantzie]

Hilarious and true. I am a bit older and only a year or two figured out what EMO’S were but yeah this is what Obama’s core get out the vote dorks are.

The Dems always seem to have “paid” volunteers. They did in 2004 with MoveON.Org thugs. They were useless. The fresh faced Repub kids were like most voters kids or grandkids. Smart, resourceful and hardworking.

I have seen one or two Obama EMO’s at the local ATlanta Bread (which is like Panera). I think they are getting paid but they screw around text messaging, drinking lattes and surfing the net. They are slackers. Yeah - send Obama only $5 more so some EMO kid can goof off.

[ncalburt]

You should have seen these Obama EMO packs slouching thru the ranch home neighborhoods of Reno.
It was quite a sight . Cars were slowing down to stare at them.

[Cyber Liberty]

And on the inside....it’s “Beetlebaum!”

[Frantzie]

LOL! I bet it was priceless. “What the h**l is that?” “Is that a boy or a girl?” Might as well me aliens from Area 54. I bet the sight of these EMOs really insprired the locals to vote for O. “Get the h**l off my front porch now!”

I am not sure I would want to be one of those EMOs skulking around Reno. The locals are pretty tough birds and they have guns.

[redgirlinabluestate]

Mitt Romney will be campaigning for McCain/Palin in Nevada on Friday with actors Jon Voight and John Ratzenberger. They'll make stops in Reno, Carson City and Gardnerville.

Romney will host a 1pm rally at the McCain campaign headquarters at 3702 South Virginia Street.

Afterwards the group will head to the Douglas County Republican headquarters for a phone bank that's happening from 4pm to 6pm.
http://www.ktvn.com/Global/story.asp?S=9267427

[Seattle Conservative]

I don’t know what the early voting was in 04, but, I posted this on a thread on 10/19 from another thread I found on FR (note that they use 08, but I think it should be 04, because its Bush-sKerry) - polls right before the election:

Speaking of polls, found this on another thread and I thought it was interesting (BTW Gallup had O by 3 today - based on traditional voters):

Review where Gallup had us in 2004, this same inept pollster had us losing in the same time frame. Have you met President Kerry? I think not:
Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30/08 - 10/2/08 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2

CNN/USA/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9/08 - 10/10/08 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1

AP-Ipsos (976 LV) 10/18/08 - 10/20/08 46% 49% 2% Kerry +3

Los Angeles Times (881 LV) 10/21/08 - 10/24/08 48% 48% 1% TIE

CNN/USA/Gallup (1573 LV)* 10/29/08 - 10/31/08 49% 49% 1% TIE

Marist (1026 LV) 11/1/08 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30/08 - 10/31/08 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2

47 posted on Sunday, October 19, 2008 10:34:22 AM by StAnDeliver (Schadenfreude!)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2109556/posts