Texas Early Voting Week 1 Results – Encouraging News for GOP

Texas Secretary of State | October 28, 2008 | Self

[Zakeet]

I thought y'all might like to see some real numbers without the usual accompanying MSM hype.

Of course, Texas isn't considered a swing state in this election, and we don't know for sure how the votes will break until they are counted next week, BUT Texas is the second largest state in terms of population and we do have our share of retirees, minorities and other groups considered key voting blocks.

Enjoy.

[PGalt]

Thanks for posting. Very interesting.

[St. Louis Conservative]

Good news, however this IS Texas. This is a state that Republicans shouldn’t even have to watch.

However, if this is an indication of what the turnout will be like in other states, I suppose it is good news.

[impeachedrapist]

Thank you very much. This is now the fifth state (along with OH, CO, FL and CA) where the Obamessiah is coming up short in his supposed strong Dem advantage in early and overall voting. I am now comfortable in pronouncing this a national trend.

The Democrats are not going turn out in significantly greater numbers than Republicans! This is McCain/Palin's race to win. I still expect overall voter turnout to be within a point either way.

[Zakeet]

2004 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Travis	584,949	102,516	18%
El Paso	371,856	48,427	13%
Hidalgo	269,811	26,535	10%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Dallas	1,231,291	164,572	13%
Harris	1,937,072	171,287	9%
Bexar	908,466	124,878	14%
Nueces	201,707	25,471	13%
Fort Bend	254,364	37,408	15%
Galveston	185,911	28,845	16%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Tarrant	918,656	141,672	15%
Williamson	200,344	35,342	18%
Denton	321,700	53,289	17%
Collin	369,412	70,100	19%
Montgomery	214,098	32,650	15%

2008 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Travis	609,180	154,988	25%
El Paso	388,643	57,433	15%
Hidalgo	305,206	42,776	14%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Dallas	1,208,151	256,683	21%
Harris	1,940,356	359,613	19%
Bexar	930,943	209,164	22%
Nueces	198,938	33,734	17%
Fort Bend	299,002	81,975	27%
Galveston	189,042	40,797	22%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Tarrant	959,499	221,216	23%
Williamson	231,977	55,294	24%
Denton	358,525	78,598	22%
Collin	424,528	107,382	25%
Montgomery	241,927	53,151	22%

2004-2008 Early Voting Increase

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Increased EV	% Increase
Travis	52,472	51%>
El Paso	9,006	19%
Hidalgo	16,241	61%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Increased EV	% Increase
Dallas	92,111	56%
Harris	188,326	110%
Bexar	84,286	67%
Nueces	8,263	32%
Fort Bend	44,567	119%
Galveston	11,952	41%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Increased EV	% Increase
Tarrant	79,544	56%
Williamson	19,952	56%
Denton	25,309	47%
Collin	37,282	53%
Montgomery	20,501	63%

2004-2008 Change in Registered Voters

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Increased RV	% Increase
Travis	24,231	4%
El Paso	16,787	5%
Hidalgo	35,395	13%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Increased RV	% Increase
Dallas	-23,140	-2%
Harris	3,284	0%
Bexar	22,477	2%
Nueces	-2,769	-1%
Fort Bend	44,638	18%
Galveston	3,131	2%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Increased RV	% Increase
Tarrant	40,843	4%
Williamson	31,633	16%
Denton	36,825	11%
Collin	55,116	15%
Montgomery	27,829	13%

2004 Election Results

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Bush	Kerry	% Bush
Travis	147,885	197,235	43%
El Paso	73,261	95,142	44%
Hidalgo	50,931	62,369	45%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Bush	Kerry	% Bush
Dallas	346,246	336,641	51%
Harris	584,723	475,865	55%
Bexar	260,698	210,976	55%
Nueces	59,359	44,439	57%
Fort Bend	93,625	68,722	58%
Galveston	61,290	43,919	58%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Bush	Kerry	% Bush
Tarrant	349,462	207,286	63%
Williamson	83,284	43,117	66%
Denton	140,891	59,346	70%
Collin	174,435	68,935	72%
Montgomery	104,654	28,628	79%

Where Texas Counties are Located

Travis – Austin
El Paso – El Paso
Hidalgo – McAllen (Lower Rio Grande Valley)
Dallas – Dallas
Harris – Houston
Bexar – San Antonio
Nueces – Corpus Christi
Fort Bend – West Houston
Galveston – Galveston
Tarrant – Fort Worth
Williamson – Round Rock (North of Austin)
Denton – Denton (North of Dallas)
Collin – NE of Dallas
Montgomery – North of Houston

[impeachedrapist]

Read it again. This time read about the Dem areas vs. the GOP areas.

[TNCMAXQ]

Sounds good. Even though M-P should easily win TX we will need every vote to get their national popular vote total up. Heaven forbid they fall short there but manage to eke out an electoral college win. Not only would their administration be dogged from day one but I fear what the reaction in the communities would be.

[SnakeDoctor]

I voted early in a Houston suburb. Had to wait 30 minutes to vote — and this area is the reddest of red.

Turnout should be good for McCain ... at least here in Bush Country.

H

[shiva]

“I’m a Texan (San Antonio) and my family voted for McCain/Palin”.

[TMA62]

Given this article and the trends that we are seeing in California, this may be a good sign for republicans.

[lonestar]

TX is much more conservative than most states, IMO.

We have more than our share of yellow dog Democrats--let their dead grandparents think for them---"My daddy and his daddy were Democrats and I'm a Democrat." That's the one I have never understood!

As my mother said, "My daddy was a Democrat, too, but he wouldn't be today."

[dervish]

I am sorry if I am just dumb, but why is this good news?

[The South Texan]

“Good news, however this IS Texas. This is a state that Republicans shouldn’t even have to watch”

This is true. But we do have some down ballot Rats that could be in trouble in the Rats don't turnout. You have some seats like Tom Delay’s old seat in the Houston area that has vulnerable Democrat. Also we have a few close races for the State legislature which are vital to keep in the GOP due to redistricting in a few years. I imagine it's just the same in some other safe Red states.

[Proud 2BeTexan]

Proud to be from Tarrant County, with over 60% Bush. ;-)

[Zakeet]

I voted early in a Houston suburb. Had to wait 30 minutes to vote — and this area is the reddest of red.

I voted early in an equally red Dallas suburb.

The lines there are an hour and a half long!

[impeachedrapist]

Good data and purty pictures - thanks!

[Texan Tory]

The reason this is good news, I think, is that the early voting increased proportionally more in republican-leaning counties than it did for democrat-leaning counties. It’s no surprise that McCain will easily carry Texas, but that’s not the point here. What this shows is that the conservative base is more energized than the liberal base. It would be great if this could be extrapolated to other states, but that remains to be seen.

[YellowRoseofTx]

I’m in the West Texas area. We’ve had amazing turn out here, really busy poling places. My next door neighbors are middle class blacks. She and I talked a few days ago and she made the statement that “blacks don’t vote like most people think”, indicating don’t count on the blacks here to necessarily vote for O. She’s a die-hard conservative as are most of her family

[impeachedrapist]

I am sorry if I am just dumb, but why is this good news?

Because GOP areas are voting at higher rates than Dem areas. That will likely help deliver TX-22 (Delay's old seat) back to the Republicans (I hope!!). Plus the overall state vote so far, just like in other states, is not showing a Democrat surge like we were told we would see. This surge is what all these Obama polls are supposedly reflecting. This news is really quite good.

[JFC]

Us Texans are not as stupid as our neigboring states!!!!